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From ELENI KUREYA
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Good Friday morning. This is Eleni Kurea.
DRIVING ON THE DAY
WHILE SLEEPING: Boris Johnson wakes up this morning from the resignation of his party chairman after a disastrous night in which the Conservatives were defeated both in Wakefield and in the hitherto true blue seat of Tiverton and Honiton.
Are we waiting for what? Oliver Dowden, who backed Boris Johnson as a leader and served loyally in his government from the start, resigned at 5:35 a.m. – just over an hour before appearing on the airwaves – in a short letter that seemed to rebuke the PM.
Keywords: “Yesterday’s parliamentary by-elections are the last in a series of very bad results for our party,” Dowden wrote. “Our supporters are worried and disappointed by the recent events and I share their feelings. We can’t go on with our usual business. ” He added that “someone has to take responsibility” and that leaving is “a deep personal decision that I have made myself.” The bottom line is that Dowden is taking responsibility where Boris Johnson failed – becoming the first cabinet minister to leave, at least implicitly, because of Partygate. The story that is being developed by the POLITICO team here.
4,000 miles away: Somewhat prophetically, in the early hours of this morning, Sky’s John Craig pondered the dangers of prime ministers going abroad during key election tests. Margaret Thatcher was in Paris when lawmakers held a vote of confidence in her leadership in 1990. When she returned to London, she vowed to fight, but she did not. For his part, Boris Johnson woke up in Kigali, Rwanda, where he had to record a video for the broadcast early in the morning, drank tea with Prince Charles in the middle of the morning and then held a press conference in the afternoon. But the prime minister – who is due to stay abroad until next Friday – is already under pressure to return to the UK earlier.
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Vulture Circle: Critics of the prime minister have already taken advantage of Dowden’s resignation. Simon Hoare tweeted that this was a “letter of honor from an honorable man” and that Dowden was “not to blame for these results.” Roger Gale said that Dowden “has clearly decided that he can no longer defend the indefensible.”
Retaliation: A source close to the prime minister said Johnson was in no hurry to replace Dowden today – nor was he in a hurry to return to the UK “He has a big job to do,” they said. “Do not give up the G7 when the world is facing an economic storm, nor NATO when there is a war in Europe.
How did we get here? Dowden’s dramatic resignation came after Labor regained Wakefield, a red-walled place in Yorkshire between 1932 and 2019, by 12.7 percentage points with 39 per cent turnout. This is Labor’s first win in the Tory by-elections since 2012, and if the same change is repeated in a general election, the party will win a majority. Labor leader Keir Starmer, who is visiting the constituency this morning, said the result was “a clear assessment of a Conservative party that has run out of energy and ideas”.
… And persecutor: More importantly, the Liberal Democrats took over Tiverton and Honiton with a staggering 29.9 percent difference from the Tories in 52 percent turnout. In a scathing speech addressed directly to the prime minister, the winning candidate Richard Fourd said that “every day Boris Johnson clings to the post, he brings additional shame, chaos and neglect”, adding that he is “unable to lead” before inviting him. to resign. Foord now has a comfortable majority of 6144. Lib Dem leader Ed Davey arrived in the constituency for his victory tour and was scheduled to appear on the air at 7:05 a.m. He said the result was “a wake-up call for all those Conservative MPs.” who support Boris Johnson. ” Davey and Ford will hold a rally to win and take a walk in Tiverton around 11am
Some hard facts: It’s hard to exaggerate how sensational last night’s victory was for the Liberal Democrats. This is the largest majority that has ever been overturned in a by-election in terms of the hard number of votes (the previous record was Labor, which overturned a majority of 23,972 Tories in Liverpool Wavertrai in 1935). The last time the seat was presented by a non-Conservative MP was two years before Queen Victoria ascended the throne, according to the joyous late-night Liberal Democrats. And there are 291 Tory MPs in places with a smaller majority than just repealed in Tiverton and Honiton, according to sociologist Joe Tuiman.
Remember: This is the third shocking defeat in the Tory by-elections in the hands of the Liberal Democrats in the last 12 months, after Chesham and Amersham (16,223 majority) last June and North Shropshire (22,949 majority) in December.
How it played out last night: The scale of the Tories’ defeat became clear early at 3 a.m., by which time both Labor and the Liberals had claimed the outcome. Shadow Cabinet Minister Louise Hay began hinting on live television shortly after 1 a.m. that her party was on track for a comfortable victory in Wakefield, while in Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats openly declared a “historic victory” by 2.52 p.m. then Ed Davey posted a slightly frozen tweet saying “he’ll need a bigger hammer” – to break the blue wall, that is). At 3:49 a.m., LBC’s Theo Usherwood announced that Helen Herford, a Tory candidate in Tiverton and Honiton, had locked herself in the dance studio at the Crediton Sports Center, where the census was taking place, and declined to answer questions from the press. The final results of the two censuses were announced within minutes of each other shortly after 4 am
Refreshing Awareness: Johnson faces a huge political challenge. Dozens of Red Wall lawmakers, who saw the 2019 election as the beginning of a long and fruitful political career, are now looking over their shoulders at Labor candidates who are clicking on their heels. What’s worse is that lawmakers in nominally safe areas of Tories are worried for the first time whether they will be able to keep their seats – and seriously doubt that Johnson is the right leader to lead them to the next election. The question is, will Dowden’s decision be a catalyst for more cabinet and minister resignations?
Rebels Gather: Tory rebels certainly see this election as a hotspot in Johnson’s leadership. “It’s not just medium-term blues,” a conservative backpack source who spent some time on the field at Tiverton and Honiton sent an SMS to Playbook late last night. “Even our own activists and the volunteer party leading the campaign were dissatisfied with the prime minister.
Twisting the knife: “When we suffered losses from the midterm elections during Cameron’s years (although none in such hard places as Tiverton and Honiton), it was taken on the chin because the then government was actually doing conservative things,” the source said. “The loss at Tiverton and Honiton cannot simply be ignored. That would hasten an electoral catastrophe that can only be avoided by replacing Boris Johnson with the better leadership the Conservative Party needs and deserves. “
All is well, but: Johnson won a vote of confidence among his own lawmakers less than three weeks ago, and party rules dictate that he cannot stand up to anyone else for 12 months. However, the rebels hope that by including enough anti-Boris brigade members in the executive director of the Tory Committee since 1922, they can trigger a change in the rules that will allow them to displace him. The ’22 executive election is shrouded in secrecy, but the Playbook says it is expected to end before the summer holidays on July 21.
RWAND POSTCARD
PEACEFUL NEGOTIATIONS: Let’s bring another briefing war that Johnson has to deal with for a second – the one with the heir to the throne. It took 24 hours, but the self-proclaimed world king and the true future king managed to fit into the same anthem, despite the very obvious rift, writes Esther Weber of POLITICO from Kigali, where she waits the next few days with PM.
Royal Blues: After interfering in the government’s policy of sending migrants to Rwanda, Boris Johnson and Prince Charles are not expected to raise the issue when they meet today, their respective camps said. But the controversy subsided only after Johnson vowed to defend his plan sharply, telling reporters emphatically, “I’m glad Prince Charles and everyone are here today to see a country that I think has undergone a complete transformation.” when pressed, “of course, if I see the prince tomorrow, of course I will note this.” Johnson’s comments – including his call for critics (read: Charles) to “keep an open mind” – spread to both the Times and the Daily Mail.
Now this is off the agenda: this may be just one of a long series of examples of Johnson escalating the situation once, twice, and then eventually de-escalating, Esther writes, but this is hardly the beginning of a beautiful friendship between the couple. The meeting should take place in the middle of the morning over a cup of tea.
Spin war: Yesterday’s diplomatic triumph for the day came from Yolanda Makolo, a spokesman for the Rwandan government, which flatly refused to be …
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