One week ago, Boris Johnson’s allies in ministers insisted that the losses from the by-elections in Tiverton and Wakefield were already “estimated”. The results will not matter, they insisted, because no one expected them to win. It didn’t quite work out that way.
Less than two hours after the scale of the catastrophic defeats became apparent, one of Boris Johnson’s most publicly loyal allies, party chairman Oliver Dowden, resigned. Shortly afterwards, former Conservative leader Michael Howard became the last senior Tory to call on the prime minister to resign. Still, Mr. Johnson is lame.
Some in the private cabinet admit that the results mark a change in the saga that has engulfed the government since Partygate crashed last November. Although no one followed Mr. Dowden through the door, cabinet ministers were noticeably quiet or cautious in their public support for their leader. However, there is a feeling in the cabinet that even those who want to replace Mr Johnson will not hasten his resignation for fear of being spotted brandishing a knife.
Even for a party with such a remarkable history of political paternal assassination as the Tories, the question of how to get rid of the prime minister is not an easy one. Behind the scenes, however, Tory rebels are becoming increasingly irritated by the cabinet’s reluctance to act.
Bad news for Foreign Minister Liz Truss, who is currently in Rwanda with the prime minister, or Rishi Sunak, whose friends believe he can still run for leadership despite revelations that his wife is not home, growing resentment against the cabinet ministers. A leading rebel said: “The next leader of the Conservative Party needs integrity, courage and leadership. That excludes the entire current cabinet. “
The attention of many is now focused on securing a change in the 1922 rules of the Tory deputies from the back seat. In this situation, they give Mr Johnson another year before he faces a vote of confidence again.
There is evidence that a second vote could lead to a very different outcome. A former staunch loyalist told The Independent that he voted for Mr Johnson two weeks ago but would not do so again.
But many rebels believe Tory MPs will not have to vote a second time to oust their leader. Only the prospect of a new vote of confidence sparked by the rule reform could be enough to end Boris Johnson’s political career, they say.
Concentrating minds are the messages they receive from their own constituents. “Tories like to earn more than anything,” said the head of a local conservative association in the South West of England. “That’s why we loved Boris.” The use of the past tense is not accidental, they added.
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