For decades, China’s growing middle class had only one chance to move forward: nehuang or joining the races of rats in relentless competition.
Then last year there was a surprising resistance among young people: pushing, lying down and doing only the minimum to connect the two ends.
Now, after returning to the grueling blockades during President Xi Jinping’s policy of zero Covid, a third trend has emerged: runxue, the study of how to get out of China forever.
Residents of China are deeply disappointed, as their daily freedoms depend on the results of mandatory tests for Covid-19, which are often done every 48 or 72 hours © Mark Schiefelbein / AP
At the end of March, when more than 300 million people found themselves under new restrictions, demand on Tencent’s WeChat platform for “how to move to Canada” increased by almost 3,000 percent, according to a study by the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). ). . In early April, immigration demand on WeChat jumped by more than 440 percent. Relocation consultants in China and abroad say they have also been affected by a flow of phone calls and emails.
The runxue phenomenon underscores that ordinary Chinese are deeply disappointed. Their daily freedoms depend on the results of mandatory tests for Covid-19, which are often done every 48 or 72 hours. Their minds are preoccupied with the immediate risks of strict quarantine in public institutions separated from their families, as well as deeper concerns about job security and declining household incomes while the economy is on the brink of recession.
Earlier hopes that the heavy blockade imposed on Shanghai in March would be a one-off quickly faded, despite blatant economic and social costs. Instead, Xi and his management explicitly reaffirmed their commitment to the controversial Zero Covid book on relentless rapid blockages, meticulous mass tests, and closed borders.
Yet the longer Zero Covid lasts, experts say, the more the leadership risks destroying the Chinese Communist Party’s “social contract” with Chinese society in the long run, especially with the fast-growing urban middle class that the party has so far managed to hold. aside.
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The legitimacy of the CCP and its leadership has long been supported by the extraordinary rise of the Chinese economy since the 1980s, which has lifted the country out of poverty and pushed hundreds of millions of Chinese to the relative prosperity of the middle class.
But a return to comprehensive blockades this year has shown many people that no prosperity outweighs political power in China, said Kati Huang, a CFR researcher who tracks the spread of Ruxue.
Shanghai is gradually reopening, but the shock of returning to the blockade has caused a “change” in Chinese attitudes, Huang said.
Previously, many blamed local authorities for accidentally applying strict Covid strictures. Most now sympathize with those who have caught up with the bureaucracy, “acknowledging how powerless everyone is under central politics,” she said.
Since the one-child policy, national strategy has not touched almost everyone in China. Trapped in a web of unpredictable and chaotic blocking rules, many Chinese now dream of a permanent escape.
“For many elites, emigration was a viable and popular option long before the blockade,” Huang said. “But the sudden jump in interest from search engines and immigration consultations tells us that a much larger population, most likely middle-class ones, are starting to consider it after the blockade.
They are looking for a long-term, not a temporary solution to their unsatisfactory life in China. “
The oppressed middle class
The economic reality and strict border controls mean that the vast majority of China’s middle class has little hope of turning the flight from exploration into practice.
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Many economists expect China’s gross domestic product to shrink this quarter, the second time it has entered recessionary territory in 30 years. Year-round growth forecasts have so far been revised to about 4 percent, half of the 8.1 percent growth recorded last year and below Beijing’s target of 5.5 percent, the lowest level in three decades.
As a result, the shrinking standard of living is spreading by low-paid workers through occupational classes and boardrooms.
Eco, an export industry specialist with a multinational company in Changsha, central China, said “most of my friends are experiencing some drop in income and increased financial pressure, including government officials.” He wants Beijing to move towards “full opening” to revive the economy.
Andy Zhu, a 30-year-old computer programmer based in Shenzhen, China’s southern technology hub, which was briefly closed in March, said that although there was a “huge impact on all industries,” he was personally forced to rethink how manages his own finances. “The pandemic has raised my awareness of recessions. . . we need to save more, “he said.
A 24-year-old accountant in the eastern city of Nanjing, who asked not to be named, expects her income to be halved this year as the decline bites. Her parents’ plan to buy a new car was recently put on ice.
Returning to comprehensive blockades this year has shown many people that no amount of prosperity surpasses political power in China © Qilai Shen / Bloomberg
Nomura analysts warn that “some fundamental indicators” may be worse than official Chinese data suggest. Analysts at the Bank of Japan point out that China’s road transport index, which is a closely monitored indicator of economic activity, has fallen by almost 20 percent year on year, and new home sales have fallen by almost a third.
They also noted a contraction in production for key commodities and products, including electricity, cement, crude steel, cars and smartphones, adding that “although the worst seems to be behind us for this wave of Omicron, there is no guarantee that a new wave it will not strike in the coming months. “
As the blockade slows economic growth, Beijing promises economic support, including a return to large-scale infrastructure projects and tax breaks. But economists, also concerned about rising inflation, are not optimistic that the scale and delivery of planned incentives will be enough to start a V-shaped recovery from the world’s largest consumer market and plant.
Employment statistics will also worry Xi and his economic gliders in Beijing. Unemployment among workers aged between 18 and 24 reached a record 18.4 percent. Rising youth unemployment has already put China on a par with Slovakia and Estonia. The problem will soon worsen with the graduation of more than 10 million students in the coming weeks.
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Zero Covid policy also affects people’s mental health. Although official data are insufficient, academic research in the early stages of the pandemic is worrying. A study of nearly 40,000 students in 2020 showed the prevalence of depression, anxiety symptoms and the risk of suicide at double-digit levels, a group of Chinese researchers wrote in an article published by the academic journal Current Psychology.
Logan Wright, who is leading a study of Chinese markets at Rhodium, the think tank, notes that many people are now comparing the crisis to some of the darkest days of the Communist Party.
“China’s own citizens. . . discuss the current crisis, likening it not to Sars or another epidemic, but to the Communist Party’s political campaigns in Chinese history – especially the history of the 1960s, “Wright wrote in a recent policy analysis.
There is frequent discussion about the overreaction of local officials to several cases and the over-reporting of economic data during the current slowdown, using the context of the Great Leap Forward, and others comparing the Big White (newly appointed medical volunteers to help block) the Red guard of the cultural revolution, “he added.
The poor are getting poorer
For the Chinese at the bottom of the economic ladder, the leader’s refusal to back down from a policy of completely eliminating the coronavirus is beginning to undermine years of progress.
One year ago, Xi took personal responsibility for eradicating poverty in China, a proud but unprovable boast during a time of global economic pain when much of the world is in the throes of a pandemic.
The issue is highly politically sensitive. He personalized the state’s long-running campaign against poverty. Last year, he also made equality a hallmark of domestic politics under the banner of “common prosperity,” which includes shattering the power of big business, cultural vices, and a surplus among the super-rich in China.
A woman walks past an anti-epidemic station, urging people to scan a QR code for the LeaveHomeSafe app, measure their temperature and disinfect their hands © Marc Fernandes / NurPhoto / Getty Images
Studies show that Chinese living in or on the brink of extreme poverty were among the worst affected when the original coronavirus outbreak emerged from Wuhan in early 2020. Researchers from Chongqing University and Sun Yat-sen University said in a report analyzing the initial epidemic across the country. blocking in early 2020 that homeless people were affected …
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