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On Monday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced plans to put 300,000 troops on high alert as part of “the biggest overhaul of our collective defense and deterrence since the Cold War.”
By Wednesday, when NATO leaders gathered for a summit in Madrid, the huge new mobilization seemed more frightening on paper than it really was, rather an aspiration than a dramatic new commitment to defending Europe.
Stoltenberg’s announcement caught high-ranking senior NATO defense officials unprepared, prompting them to ask which of their forces, if any, were included in the 300,000-strong force.
“Maybe it’s the magic of numbers?” said a senior European defense official who, like others, speaks on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the confusion.
Several senior European security politicians said they were surprised not to announce in advance the plan to expand NATO’s rapid reaction force from its current size of 40,000 in light of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s ongoing military threats. for NATO territory.
A senior defense official on the other side of the alliance said its leaders had not been consulted on the figure in advance. The officer wondered which of his nation’s troops were respected in the force – and whether it included volunteer National Guard personnel who had civilian day jobs.
Asked at a news conference Wednesday about the mystery of the missing troops, Stoltenberg said the “majority” would be based in their home countries and build on existing personnel – a code, in some ways, to simply reclassify the troops that currently exist and making them more accessible for rapid deployment under NATO command in the event of a security crisis.
“Of course, as always, when you do something in NATO, the Allies should contribute with the forces they have promised to contribute,” he said, without speaking directly about why some countries have apparently not yet been asked to step up.
Stoltenberg said he hoped to have an expanded rapid force sometime next year.
A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity under the alliance’s basic rules, said country figures had yet to be determined. Even a total of 300,000 is theoretical at the moment: “The concept is not yet fully developed,” the official said. “We will have to do more to build the model before we can understand what national commitments can be.”
However, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has already said her country will offer 15,000 soldiers – full division.
The confusion is extremely widespread The forces are not linked to a smaller but perhaps more significant statement Wednesday that the alliance will send brigades of about 3,000 to 5,000 troops to the four member states that border Russia and are most vulnerable. Although these figures are far from Eastern Europe’s most ambitious demands in the months leading up to the summit,, politicians said they will significantly strengthen NATO’s ability to defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
The Baltic leaders said they were satisfied. The units still need some finalization, as NATO countries send troops and equipment to international forces there in the coming months.
A full brigade in each country is about three or four times more than the NATO troops stationed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Only part of each brigade will be deployed at once, but the equipment will be in place so that the rest of the group can quickly enter the battle. Politicians said the change would shift NATO’s presence in the region from a lent – a somewhat symbolic presence designed to dissuade the Kremlin from invading – to a real defense force that could hold Russian forces long enough for reinforcements to arrive.
US forces will be permanently based in Poland, President Biden said, a significant change in Washington’s commitment to defending the region.
The alliance’s current rapid reaction force is expected to be deployed within 15 days. Stoltenberg aims to gather 100,000 troops in 10 days and an additional 200,000 in 30 days.
“It is very important to have command structures,” Latvian Prime Minister Christianis Karins said in an interview Wednesday. He praised the goal of the future enlargement, even if many details have not yet been completed.
The figure of 300,000 troops will not be the first time Stoltenberg has announced figures that have as much to do with symbolism as they do with reality. During the years that former President Donald Trump took office, the Secretary-General provided data on defense spending, calculated to show how much commitments have increased since Trump took office in 2017, even though NATO spending has actually begun to rise. increase after the Russian annexation of Crimea three years earlier. The change was intended to caress Trump’s ego and allow him to take credit for boosting defense.
After he left office, NATO figures immediately returned to more complete and accurate calculations, including the last years of Barack Obama’s presidency.
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