Ukrainian soldiers in the Kherson region this month. The Ukrainian army claims to have driven the Russians from perimeter defense positions in several locations and now has troops operating within 20 miles of the city of Kherson. Credit… Tyler Hicks/New York Times
While Russia relies on overwhelming destructive power to advance a mile or two a day in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers fighting some 400 miles to the south are working steadily to chip away at Russian front-line positions in an expanse of steppe and swamps.
Fighting is fierce on both fronts, and how the two campaigns play out is critical to understanding the state of the war as fears grow that a protracted conflict will impose new economic costs on Ukraine’s allies.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin said last week that he thought he would wait for the West to come out. Although the Russian leader rarely acknowledges Russia’s losses or defeats, military analysts said the blows inflicted by his army raised questions about whether it could sustain broad offensive operations after its campaign to retake Luhansk province ended.
Russia has committed the bulk of its combat forces to the capture of Lisychansk, the last urban center in Luhansk still controlled by the Ukrainian government, and it could fall any day.
Russia has sent thousands of additional troops east in recent weeks to bolster its offensive in neighboring Donetsk region, where it is likely to try again to take heavily fortified Ukrainian positions with its large arsenal of artillery, missiles and air power, even if its ground forces are reduced.
How much each army has been reduced after more than four months of war is an open question. Kyiv publishes only general estimates of its losses, and Moscow says almost nothing.
British Defense Chief Ben Wallace said last week that 25,000 Russian soldiers had been killed since the start of the war. The number, which could not be independently confirmed, is the highest estimate provided by a senior Western official. The Ukrainian government has admitted that it has suffered huge losses with hundreds of casualties every day.
Even if Russia manages to push deeper into Donetsk, its military is struggling to maintain progress along multiple lines of attack in different parts of a country roughly the size of Texas.
Thursday’s defeat by the Russians on Snake Island in the Black Sea, where their troops were forced to withdraw under a sustained Ukrainian bombardment, underscored how dependent the Russians are on their superiority in heavy weapons.
Russia’s withdrawal from the island was expected to undermine Moscow’s control of vital grain routes from Odessa. And when Russian missile strikes on an apartment building and recreation center near Odessa killed at least 21 people on Friday, Ukrainians saw it as an act of revenge.
“This was an act of revenge for the successful liberation of Snake Island,” Yevgeny Yenin, first deputy interior minister, said in an interview. He scoffed at Russian claims that leaving the island was a gesture of “good will”.
A satellite image from Maxar Technologies showed smoke rising from Snake Island on Thursday. Credit… Maxar Technologies/Via Reuters
With its forces stretched thin, Russia has been trying for months to strengthen its defensive positions in the south, where Ukraine has retaken parts of the Kherson region west of the Dnieper River that Russia seized at the start of the war.
The Ukrainian military said the Russians had been driven from perimeter defenses in several places and that Ukrainian soldiers were operating within 20 miles of the city of Kherson. Senior US Defense Department officials said last week that the Ukrainians are not only reclaiming villages, but are also showing an ability to hold on to the territory they have won.
But military analysts have warned that despite Ukrainian gains in the south, they are unlikely to mount a broad offensive and soon advance to the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital to fall to the Russians.
Ukrainian forces are currently counterattacking north and south of the city. At the same time, rebels in Kherson stepped up a campaign to assassinate Russian proxy leaders and assist the Ukrainian military by engaging in sabotage operations and supporting direct fire on Russian targets.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command said its forces had fired rockets and artillery at 150 targets, killing more than 40 Russian soldiers and destroying scores of Russian artillery and armor. The claims could not be independently verified, but data from NASA fire-tracking satellites noted activity on the southern front.
— Mark Santora and Roger Cohen
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