The third Omicron wave began in BC and is expected to grow rapidly

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As the number of cases increases, the expert in the modeling of COVID recommends a return to masking indoors, avoiding crowded spaces, getting a booster vaccine

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Jul 03, 2022 • 2 hours ago • 4 minutes read • 5 comments A COVID modeling expert encourages those eligible to get their COVID-19 booster shots before the BA.4 and BA.5 wave peaks and not to wait for newer vaccines. Photo by NICK PROCAILLO /PNG

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The third Omicron wave has begun and is expected to increase rapidly and peak in August, says a COVID modeling expert.

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“I think there was hope that we wouldn’t have another wave until the fall, but the wave is starting now,” said Sally Otto, who advises re-masking along with a booster shot.

Otto, an evolutionary biologist and mathematical modeler at the University of British Columbia, presented his data at the main North American meeting of evolutionary biologists in Cleveland, Ohio, last week.

Data from Public Health Canada laboratories tracking Omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants show that they will soon outpace the original Omicron subvariants in Canada, said Otto, who is a member of the COVID-19 modeling group at British Columbia

“We’re at a reasonably low point right now, the lowest point in 2022,” Otto said in an interview. “So we can afford to be a little bit more relaxed right now, but not for long because this is going up so fast that we’re going to face higher risk.”

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“You go to the grocery store now and your risk is relatively low. You go to the grocery store in three weeks and there’s a good chance someone else has COVID.”

Much uncertainty remains about the severity and harmfulness of the BA.1 to BA.5 subvariants, Otto said — at a time when public health measures are at their lowest level in the pandemic, with no mask mandate, no provincial proof of vaccination requirement for public events and gatherings and little appetite for their return.

“Every week that goes by in July, the risk of COVID doubles, and that should help people understand how much more likely they are to experience COVID in their communities,” Otto said.

“But the good news is it’s summer, so throw those outdoor parties and open those windows and just avoid those crowded spaces with strangers as much as people can — and wear a mask — but don’t stop living.”

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Otto recommends wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, “especially through mid-July and August when this next wave of cases will be in full swing.”

She also encourages those who qualify to get their COVID-19 booster shots before the peak of the BA.4 and BA.5 wave and not wait for newer vaccines.

Last week, the National Immunization Advisory Committee recommended booster shots before the fall wave for people age 65 and older, long-term care residents, the clinically immunocompromised, indigenous populations and marginalized communities.

NACI said it will provide recommendations on the type of vaccine against COVID-19 as evidence for appropriate vaccines becomes available.

Otto said he could not predict whether there would be a fall wave or its expected virulence.

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“What I can say is that there is still enormous evolutionary potential for this virus because there are so many cases worldwide, and that means this virus is changing in many ways around the world,” Otto said.

“I think that COVID is with us for the long term and we have to get better at reacting to it and reacting – when the waves go up, so do all the safeguards, and when the waves go down, as we are now, at a reasonably low point… we can afford to be a little more relaxed … but not for long.”

For those losing track of variants and sub-variants, COVID-19 has mutated into Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron variants. The Omicron is considered less lethal than the Delta, but more portable. Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are similar to the original Omicron subvariant BA.2, except for some mutations.

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“And these mutations make BA.4 and BA.5 even more difficult for our immune system to recognize the virus,” Otto said.

Several countries, including the US, Portugal, France, Israel and Italy, have reported increases in cases of COVID-19.

Canada’s chief public health officer, Theresa Tam, issued a statement Thursday saying the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are more portable and better able to evade immunity than previous versions. An increase in cases is likely in the coming weeks, she said.

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As of June 18, there were approximately 15,047 new weekly cases of COVID-19 in Canada, comparable to November and down from 288,771 cases per week at the peak of the Omicron wave in January.

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While the number of BA.1 and BA.2 sub-variants of COVID-19 Omicron is decreasing, the expected number of BA.4 and BA.5 is increasing at a daily growth rate of 3.1 percent in British Columbia.

By comparison, Alberta’s growth rate is 4.9%, doubling every 14 days, 6.3% in Ontario, doubling every 11 days, and 5.5% in Quebec, where it doubles every 12 days.

The good news is that data from the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force and Canadian Blood Services suggest high levels of antibodies in all age groups determined by donating blood by mid-May.

The bad news is that the antibodies’ ability to neutralize the COVID virus and prevent infection is significantly compromised for the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, Otto said.

ceharnett@timescolonist.com

To read more from the Times Colonist, click here.

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