As the crisis over Boris Johnson’s prime ministership deepens, a discreet audition of potential contenders to replace him as UK prime minister is taking place behind closed doors.
Since the party scandal surrounding lockdown-breaking Downing Street gatherings came to the fore late last year, several senior members of Johnson’s cabinet have been preparing for a future contest, courting MPs over drinks, dinners and coffee meetings.
As the prime minister teeters on the brink of being forced out of Downing Street, six key contenders are expected to make bids to succeed him as Tory leader. Many others are also expected to run, potentially to secure top jobs in the next government.
Liz Truss
Bookmakers odds: 15/2
ConservativeHome approval rating +49.
The foreign secretary has been open about her leadership ambitions since becoming international trade secretary in 2019. At Johnson’s moment of maximum danger, she was on a convenient trip to Indonesia.
The 46-year-old South West Norfolk MP arrived in Parliament in 2010 and quickly climbed the ministerial ladder under David Cameron. She has held a wide range of cabinet roles, including environment and justice secretaries.
Despite backing Remain in the 2016 referendum, Truss has become one of Brexit’s staunchest defenders, undergoing a transformation that many Leave MPs attribute to her leadership ambitions. She is one of the front-runners in the influential leadership ranking list run by ConservativeHome, the party’s popular grassroots website.
Truss, who named one of her daughters Liberty, tried to replicate the style of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Her leadership position will focus on libertarian ideals, or “Thatcherism on steroids”, as one Tory MP described it.
Nadhim Zahawi
Bookmakers odds: 23/2
ConservativeHome approval rating: +56
Until his elevation to chancellor, Zahawi was considered an outside bet for the next prime minister. An MP who entered the cabinet less than a year ago, he has limited front-line political experience. That changed when he replaced Sunak on Tuesday night.
The 55-year-old Stratford-on-Avon MP rose rapidly during Johnson’s premiership, first as vaccines minister during the coronavirus pandemic, then as education secretary.
His decision to support the Johnson government at a time of maximum peril may have been made out of loyalty to the Prime Minister, but also out of ambition.
But many in the party believe he has damaged his chances by joining a “sinking ship” in the words of one MP.
If Johnson resigns, Zahawi is likely to be one of the first candidates to declare his intention to succeed him, with one of the most prepared leadership teams of other likely contenders.
An ally said: “Nadhim has been working hard for the parliamentary party for some time. No one doubts that he will run and I think he has a good chance of winning.
Rishi Sunak
Bookmakers odds: 7/1
ConservativeHome approval rating: 14.9
Until revelations earlier this year that Sunak’s wife had nominal tax status and that he had a US green card while he was a minister, the former chancellor was the favorite to succeed Johnson – thanks in part to his solid performance during the coronavirus pandemic.
Sunak’s shock resignation on Tuesday night confirmed the 42-year-old as one of the most prominent candidates to replace Johnson.
But the Richmond, Yorkshire MP is likely to be challenged over his economic record, which is unpopular with Tory MPs and party members.
Some senior Tories have cast doubt on whether Sunak will contest the leadership, suggesting he may choose to leave politics instead. In his resignation letter to Johnson, he wrote: “I recognize that this may be my last ministerial work.”
If Sunak does run, his pitch will likely focus on fiscal responsibility, tax cuts and shrinking the state.
Sajid Javid
Bookmakers odds: 8/1.
ConservativeHome approval rating +43
“Enough is enough,” the former health secretary told the House of Commons on Wednesday. It was Javid who gave the final push that is likely to end Johnson’s prime ministerial career with a letter of resignation.
The Bromsgrove MP, 52, has already stood for the party leadership twice: in 2016 after the Brexit referendum and again in 2019, when he was kicked out of the race after coming fourth in the MPs’ vote.
Javid’s role as Johnson’s main political assassin will help his standing among ordinary Tories, but Johnson’s loyalists are unlikely to forget the betrayal.
Javid’s allies said he had not decided whether to run again. One said that in his resignation speech it was “obvious that he has an idea to reshape the party for the future and get it back on track. Sai might end up going in behind someone else.”
Penny Mordaunt
Bookmakers odds: 9/2
ConservativeHome Approval Ratings: N/A
The bookies’ favorite to succeed Johnson, the trade secretary is a long-time staunch critic of the prime minister. In last month’s confidence vote, Mordaunt refused to say whether he supported Johnson, but said “I did not choose this prime minister”.
As a junior non-cabinet minister, Mordaunt does not feature in ConservativeHome’s leadership rankings. But her campaign team has been in gear since the publication of her book Greater in May last year.
The 49-year-old former Royal Navy reservist first entered Parliament in 2010 as the MP for Portsmouth North. She later joined the cabinet under Theresa May, serving as Secretary of State for International Development and Defence.
Mordaunt was a key supporter of Brexit in the 2016 referendum, but she is also a member of the One Nation group, which represents Liberal Conservative MPs.
One ally of Mordaunt said her leadership would seek to unite different wings of the Tory party. “She will talk that she is for Brexit, that she is defending Global Britain and social liberalism,” the MP said.
Tom Tugendhat
Bookmakers odds: 12/1
ConservativeHome Approval Ratings: N/A
The chairman of the foreign affairs committee has made no secret of his dislike of Johnson and his desire to be the next prime minister. After Johnson’s tumultuous tenure as foreign secretary, Tugendhat was one of the prime minister’s most vocal critics.
The Tonbridge and Malling MP, 49, served in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan before entering parliament in 2010. He became chairman of the foreign affairs committee in 2017 and has used it as a platform to become one of the most – well-known MPs in the Conservative Party.
Tugendhat does not feature in ConservativeHome’s rankings but has 12/1 odds to succeed Johnson according to the bookies. His leadership position is expected to focus on the party’s ideological and moral renewal.
One MP, a Tugendhat supporter, said: “Tom will do well, but . . . his best hope is to hold out and get a good cabinet job. That or he will become the next leader of the opposition.
Other contenders
Several other prominent Tories are considering leadership bids, but their chances are more limited.
Jeremy Hunt The former health secretary will contest the leadership, but many MPs on the right of the party are skeptical of Hunt’s record and presentation style. One MP described Hunt as “Theresa [May] by pants”, a reference to the former prime minister.
Ben Wallace The defense secretary has won plaudits for his handling of the war in Ukraine but remains untested in other areas of policy. Seen as a steady pair of hands in the party, Wallace has not built as extensive a campaign team as other contenders. “I’m still not sure Ben is going to run,” said one ally.
Michael Gove The equalization secretary told Johnson early on Wednesday that he should resign and could launch a third bid for the leadership, potentially focusing on delivering the equalization program to tackle regional inequality. But his allies insist he will not run again.
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