Boris Johnson’s leadership is very much on edge, with over 50 MPs walking out of public office in protest against his leadership since Thursday morning.
But on paper the prime minister is technically safe as Tory leader and cannot be forcibly removed under existing Conservative rules.
That’s because Mr Johnson has already survived a no-confidence vote last month.
41 per cent of Tory MPs voted against him, but a majority was needed to force him out of office.
According to the existing rules, there cannot be a new vote of no confidence for a year already – the matter has been officially settled.
The hope of those who resigned in the last 36 hours is that Mr Johnson will realize the game is up and resign from his job of his own accord.
But the prime minister has a reputation as a troublemaker, so his critics in the Tory party have a back-up plan if it doesn’t happen voluntarily.
If Johnson doesn’t quit, they’ll just change the rules of the game so he can be forced out. They are confident they can win a second vote of no confidence.
The 1922 Governing Committee of the Conservative Party is the key here. The committee’s chief executive is re-elected every time there is a Queen’s Speech, and a new one is expected to be appointed by next week.
The governing executive consists of a total of 18 members, including six officers. This includes a chairman, two vice-chairmen, two executive secretaries and a treasurer.
The first meeting to swear in the new chief executive will be next Wednesday, with the first opportunity to change the rules the week after that.
The UK’s Johnson has vowed to stay in office after senior ministers quit
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1/2UK’s Johnson vows to stay in post after senior ministers quit
The UK’s Johnson has vowed to stay in office after senior ministers quit
British politics
British politics
The UK’s Johnson has vowed to stay in office after senior ministers quit
British politics
British politics
That means a vote to remove Johnson could take place before MPs leave Westminster for their summer break on July 21.
MPs critical of Mr Johnson are already organizing around changing the rules and, given the number of resignations, they are confident they could change standing orders to make it possible to remove the party leader.
It is not clear exactly what the rules will change, but they are likely to be changed in a way that makes another vote of no confidence against the prime minister possible.
Will the vote of no confidence by Tory MPs go any differently than last month? It seems likely. The result for Mr Johnson in June was already poor by the standards of previous leaders who resigned in principle with better levels of support.
But in the last 36 hours, MPs who had openly supported the prime minister turned against him and said the current situation could not continue. There will be no shortage of MPs voting against him, even on pragmatic grounds, to end the turmoil
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