Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning on Thursday to those who hope Russia will suffer a military defeat in Ukraine: “Generally speaking, we haven’t even started anything serious yet.”
What he says: In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, Putin said Western support for Ukraine would only prolong the war. Putin, who launched the war in February and has taken maximalist positions on any peace deal, said “the West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian” because it wants to weaken Russia and “impose its version of the global order”.
Current Status: Russia appears to be preparing for the next phase of its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern border areas as it completes its capture of Luhansk, one of the two administrative districts of the wider Donbass region.
- Roughly half of the other region, Donetsk, remains in Ukrainian hands. That is where the focus will shift after Moscow’s expensive but effective offensive in Luhansk.
- Russia has been shelling Ukrainian positions in Donetsk but has not announced any territorial gains in the four days since it took control of Lisichansk, the last major city in Luhansk that remains in Ukrainian hands.
- This could signal an operational pause while Russia’s depleted forces prepare for the next phase.
- Both sides took heavy losses in the Donbass, but Russia had the advantage in manpower and particularly in artillery. Military analysts expect that balance to shift over time as Kyiv trains additional forces and integrates NATO-caliber weapons.
The big picture: Moscow has declared its intention to “liberate” the entire Donbas region, much of which is now completely destroyed.
- However, Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Russia’s security council, this week reiterated Moscow’s original, broader goal of “demilitarizing” all of Ukraine. The Biden administration does not believe that Putin’s ambitions are limited to the Donbass.
- “We hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield,” Putin said on Thursday. “Let them try.”
- Meanwhile, Ukraine has had some success in its efforts to retake parts of the southern Kherson region, which could become another major front as the war continues.
Zoom in: Ukraine chose to abandon the cities of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk rather than wage a sustained defense as seen in Mariupol – apparently seeking to slow down and degrade Russian forces without risking catastrophic losses.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Kyiv was “finally” benefiting from weapons and ammunition sent by Western partners.
- US-supplied HIMARS missile launchers allowed Ukraine to strike ammunition depots and command and control centers behind Russian lines. Ukraine also took back the symbolically and strategically important Snake Island with the help of Western weapons.
What to watch: The speed with which new weapons and troops are integrated into the battle will be key to Ukraine’s efforts to halt its territorial losses and possibly launch a counteroffensive later this summer.
- On the other hand, Russia has not imposed mass conscription, but has reportedly offered higher-than-normal pay packages to contract servicemen to fill its own ranks.
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