Strategists say Patrick Brown’s disqualification from the Conservative leadership race gives Pierre Poillievre the edge – but Jean Charest may still have a chance.
The Conservative Party kicked Brown out of the race, citing allegations he broke funding rules. Brown denies the allegations and his campaign says he is appealing the decision.
If the disqualification stands, Poilievre will have a clear shot at the Conservative leadership, said Conservative strategist Corey Teneike.
“I think his chances of winning have gone from 98 percent to 100,” Teneike, a partner at Rubicon Strategy, told CBC’s Power & Politics host Vassi Kapelos.
WATCH: Patrick Brown blames his ouster on conservative backlash
Patrick Brown blames his removal on the Conservative Party
Conservative leadership candidate Patrick Brown says he has been ousted from party power. Political pundits Eric Grenier and Corey Teneike join Vassi Kapelos to react to his ouster and predict where the race will go from here.
Teneyke pointed to the Poilievre campaign’s claim to have registered more than 300,000 of the 675,000 members the party says will be eligible to vote.
The party says the preliminary list of members it released for the campaigns last week shows that approximately 675,000 members are now eligible to vote for the next Conservative leader.
“It kind of puts a strain on the competition [Poilievre’s] benefit in terms of odds,” Teneike said.
Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, said that while Brown’s disqualification gives Poilievre an easier path to victory, Charest could prevail if he woos Brown’s supporters.
Brown said he had attracted 150,000 new members to the party. Chambers said those votes could put Charest over the top.
“It really creates a path for [Charest] to enlarge his camp, to increase his membership. And if he can get to the second, third ballot, he has a much better chance of winning,” he said.
But Eric Grenier, a writer and publisher at The Writ, said that scenario will likely depend on how many of Brown’s supporters still vote.
“Not all of these people are just going to go home and not vote because their candidate was disqualified. A lot of them will still vote,” Grenier told Kapelos.
“Some of them will go to Jean Charest, but in all likelihood the 150,000 people that Patrick Brown registered will vote in smaller numbers than the people who are registered by other campaigns.”
If a significant number of Brown supporters drop out, that could give Poilievre another advantage, Grenier said.
Polievre, Charest both claimed a path to victory
Both Poilievre and Charest claim they have paths to victory based on the preliminary roster and that Brown’s disqualification doesn’t change their calculations.
Organizing Committee for Party Leadership Elections [LEOC] it does not break down the number of members by region or indicate how many members each campaign has signed up.
But Poilievre and Charest’s campaigns say they’ve signed up enough members in enough ridings to win.
Conservative leadership contest rules award 100 points to each of Canada’s 338 ridings. These points are allocated to candidates based on their share of the vote in each race. A candidate must win the most points to secure the lead.
Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poillievre, right, walks past Jean Charest as he takes his place on stage during a debate at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa on May 5, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
Poilievre and his campaign said they had signed up more than 300,000 members.
But in a message to supporters obtained by the CBC, Charest’s campaign said the party’s 450,000 members are spread across fewer than 100 ridings.
“After a detailed review of the preliminary list of members, we are confident that we have a very strong vote performance to secure the points we need to win the leadership race,” it said.
The Charest campaign also claimed the former Quebec premier secured 80 percent of the points in the 78 races in his home province.
Poilievre’s campaign rejects the idea that support for their candidate is concentrated in a modest number of elections. The Conservative MP’s team says it has signed up at least 100 members in every riding in the country.
Poilievre’s campaign sent CBC a regional breakdown of his support — it says he has more than 25,000 votes in Quebec, 118,000 in Ontario and 71,000 in Alberta.
Those numbers do not include those who may have been removed from the preliminary list by the organizing committee, but the party says only about 6,500 names were removed from the list for not following party or Elections Canada rules.
“If Mr. Charest is so confident, we urge him to release his numbers, as we do, and explain his path to victory,” Poilievre’s press secretary and campaign spokesman Anthony Koch said in a text message.
Campaigns can use a pre-list to shop for votes
The fact that a campaign has registered a certain number of members does not guarantee that those members will still vote in the fall – and those who do can still vote for another candidate.
With the publication of the preliminary list, the party now allows all campaigns to telephone or email party members in the hope of persuading them to switch sides.
The campaign team of Ontario MP and leadership candidate Scott Aitchison said he plans to go on tour this summer to win over supporters.
“[Aitchison] will continue to work to build a Conservative Party that can deliver the results and good governance that Justin Trudeau is unable or unwilling to deliver,” his campaign said in a statement.
The campaign for former Ontario MP Roman Baber said it was “optimistic” about the membership.
“There is no doubt that our pro-democracy message has had a material effect on all of the campaigns and the race as a whole,” Baber’s campaign said in a media statement.
Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis’s campaign also says she has a path to victory, although she hasn’t released her own membership numbers.
“We absolutely believe there is still a path to victory for Leslyn in this race, and we will continue to work toward that goal,” Lewis’ campaign manager Steve Outhouse said in a media statement.
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