The fallout from USC and UCLA leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten continues. The Big 12 intends to position itself to bring together the most desirable remaining members of the Pac-12, turning the tables on how things stood a year ago. The Pac-12 will execute its own plan, but perhaps most importantly, can it hold off Oregon and Washington? Meanwhile, questions arise at the national level. While all eyes are on what Notre Dame will do, what can we make of North Carolina? The Athletic staff dives into the latest realignment developments.
The Big 12 on offense?
The Big 12 received an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its position among the Power 5 conferences. The new commissioner doesn’t want to lose him.
The league is in “serious” talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly, sources told The Athletic. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, hired just last week, was described as “super aggressive” by one source and has the support of Big 12 presidents and chancellors to continue adding members to the Pac-12.
It’s unclear how quickly the Big 12 can reach a deal on its expansion effort, but these sources expressed optimism that Yormark can pull through. CBS Sports first reported that the Big 12 was in discussions to add multiple Pac-12 schools.
Arizona and Arizona State have long been considered logical fits for the Big 12 if those schools were ever interested in leaving the Pac-12. But USC and UCLA moving into the Big Ten have the Big 12 dreaming bigger. He’s also eyeing Utah, the Pac-12 football champion in 2021, and Colorado, a member of the Big Eight and Big 12 until 2011.
Oregon and Washington’s pursuits are harder to predict right now. It probably makes sense for both of them to keep their options open and hold out for the possibility of joining the Big Ten or the SEC. The Big 12 would take the top four, but trying to include all six is certainly worth it.
“(Yormark) talked about making sure we’re going to be aggressive, we’re not going to sit back,” one Big 12 athletic director told The Athletic. “I’ve talked to some advertisers and we think we’re in a strong position.”
Yormark first met his advertisers last Friday at a Zoom meeting, and several said he was impressive in his debut. He was strong in his belief that the Big 12 could thrive in this changing climate, and he appears to have the right connections to help make that happen. He wasn’t supposed to officially start the job until Aug. 1, but Yormark is embracing this opportunity to interfere and knows the Big 12 can’t afford to sit back and watch this latest realignment saga play out. — Max Olson and Chris Vanini
What the Big 12 stands to gain from adding these particular Pac-12 programs
When a league has a chance to be the aggressor in a conference realignment round, it usually takes it. Beyond the obvious pull of Oregon and Washington, Arizona schools will bring Phoenix a media market, the nation’s 11th largest. Colorado will bring in Denver (No. 16) and Utah will anchor Salt Lake City (No. 30) along with incoming Big 12 member BYU.
It also makes sense from a scheduling and travel standpoint, especially with BYU already in the lineup starting in 2023. That would keep the Holy War alive, and while maintaining or rekindling rivalries isn’t usually a major driving factor in such a move , would be a great spin-off.
A source at one of the target schools noted that many Pac-12 fans don’t travel well and the strong fan bases in the Big 12 are another factor that makes the conference intriguing. The idea of Iowa State, BYU or Kansas State fans visiting more regularly than several current Pac-12 schools could be appealing.
One Big 12 source noted that Colorado was “very shy” in 2010 when it fled the Big 12 for the Pac-12, seeking stability as well as the potential West Coast exposure/enrollment. Perhaps that calculus looks a little different in the current college athletic landscape — and the Pac-12, which doesn’t include the Los Angeles schools.
“I think a lot of things are possible,” the Big 12 source said. — Nicole Auerbach and Vannini
How did the Pac-12 respond?
Less than a week after the league lost its top schools, a Pac-12 source said the conference is operating with a sense of urgency but is “not panicking.” If one of the remaining Pac-12 schools suddenly gets a call from the Big Ten or the SEC, the source said that would be reason enough for the others to hit the panic button. But the Big 12? The source said the current iteration of the Big 12 is not an obvious yes. It might make more sense for the Arizona/Colorado/Utah contingent to wait a bit and consider all options, including whatever the Pac-12 can muster as a counteroffer.
One option worth exploring, the source said, is some kind of partnership between the Pac-12 and the ACC. (Just don’t call it a “union,” please.) Both leagues need a boost because both are on pace to fall well behind the SEC and Big Ten in terms of annual revenue. The ACC is stuck in a media rights deal that essentially depreciates and doesn’t expire until 2036 — would a deal with the Pac-12 allow the ACC to renegotiate such a (bad) deal? That’s a question administrators across the country are asking themselves. — Auerbach
Could the Pac-12 end up regretting its inaction in 2021?
Less than a year ago, the Pac-12 could have made a move. New commissioner George Klyavkoff received a lot of interest from leaders of Big 12 schools looking to transfer. It would be all too easy to capture its most attractive members, plant a flag in the state of Texas, and possibly end the Big 12.
But for the Pac-12, those schools just weren’t attractive enough.
Instead, Kliavkoff pursued the option his conference felt added more value at the time, partnering with the ACC and Big Ten for their ill-fated Alliance. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips said at the time that they hoped the pact would “allow a conference like the Big 12 to figure out its way forward.” Calling it merciful seems a bit generous, but the Pac-12’s inaction on expansion did help the Big 12 come together and agree to bring in four new members.
The Big 12 survived because no Power 5 league wanted the remaining eight schools. The Pac-12 might not be so happy.
“Shame on the Big 12 if they don’t do what the Pac-12 didn’t want to do last year,” one group of 5 ADs told The Athletic.
That’s not to say the Pac-12 would avoid its current problems by raiding the Big 12. Even if USC and UCLA were in favor of expansion (and sources believe they are not), such a move wouldn’t prevent them from running for a better deal in The Big Ten.
But it was a point in time where the Pac-12 could have kicked a competitor out of the market and created a Power 4.
The Big 12 can do the same right now, though it won’t be as easy to accomplish. No one questions whether Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah add enough value to the Big 12 to be worth it. Its leaders want to be aggressive. They’ve lived through this very cycle of panic, fear and uncertainty, so they know how vulnerable Pac-12 presidents are right now and how receptive they must be to offering a good solution.
The wild card, of course, is Yormark. He has a lot to learn about this landscape, and he needs to do it as quickly as possible. Yormark brings over 30 years of experience in professional sports, not college. He has no longstanding ties to these commissioners. Maybe that helps. He does not owe them to be collegial. The Big 12 has been through enough to know that inaction can be costly. — Olson
Why is the Pac-12 starting its media rights negotiations now?
The Pac-12 announced Tuesday that its board of directors has “authorized the conference to immediately begin negotiations for its next media rights agreements.” The timing drew attention, but sources inside and outside the Pac-12 seemed to think it made sense. The Pac-12, with its current deal in 2024, has to do everything it can to survive, and it believes going to media partners and getting their assessment will help.
Or maybe you can play a merger or partnership.
If you’re in Arizona or Colorado, wouldn’t you want all the facts and figures before you decide to jump into another league? This is useful information that will perhaps lead to a re-engagement of the current members of the Pac-12 with each other. At least that’s the optimistic view of the situation.
A more pessimistic view: Getting the numbers doesn’t change the numbers. The Pac-12’s value to potential media partners has taken a significant hit, whether or not it can put a specific dollar figure on it. — Auerbach
So what about the best of the rest?
A former Pac-12 administrator put it simply Tuesday: Oregon and Washington trump everything the Big 12 has to offer.
That’s worth remembering in all of this as the Big 12 and its new, no-holds-barred commissioner look to strike first and implement some of what’s left of the Pac-12. While it’s unclear what the Ducks and Huskies can do — and what real opportunities they have right now — it’s safe to say that those two programs, more than any other, have control over the Pac-12’s destiny right now.
The Pac-12 is no doubt trying to get ahead of the curve — why else would it issue a statement saying it will begin its media rights negotiations immediately? — but that statement probably won’t actually affect the current situation.
It also distracts from the larger issues at the national level.
What will Notre Dame do?
And, perhaps just as important, what will North Carolina do?
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