On July 12, 2021, the Edmonton Oilers acquired Duncan Keith and Tim Soderlund from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Caleb Jones and a conditional 2022 draft pick. The pick was the 94th selection and Arizona (who traded with Chicago) selected Jeremy Langlois.
The Keith deal was a huge win for the Oilers.
I went on record as liking trading at the time. The main reason Chicago didn’t hold onto any money was that Keith could retire this summer and the Hawks would have a huge recap penalty. They have a cap hit of $5.538 million this year and $1.938 million next season. If Keith had stayed in Chicago, they likely would have reached an agreement for him to go LTIR this season, earn his remaining $1.5 million, and the Hawks would gain $5.538 million in cap space with him on LTIR. When he was traded, that option wasn’t there, so there was no salary withheld.
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For the Oilers, the trade was going great. Yes, Keith played the first four minutes and for the last three months of the season he mentored Evan Bouchard. Bouchard raved about how much he learned from Keith. In one of the first discussions they had, Keith told Bouchard that there was an invisible line down the middle of the ice and everyone would stay on their side, just to try to keep things simple for the rookie. Of course, sometimes you have to switch sides, but getting used to staying on your side and trusting your partner is the key to success.
In the first 44 games of the season, Bouchard played 757 minutes at 5×5 and mainly with Darnell Nurse. His opponent distribution was 228 minutes vs. Elite (30.1%), 248 vs. Middle (32.8) and 281 vs. Grit (37.1%) via PuckIQ.com.
His GF-GA was 7-9 against Elite, 6-13 against Middle and 20-16 against Grit. Total 33-38 (46.48GF%). In those same 44 games, Keith’s GF% was 52.8 (28-23) — the best among the Oilers’ top-5 defensemen.
When Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson were hired, they changed their defensive pairings. They put Darnell Nurse with Cody Ceci and gave them a serious dose of Elite competition and paired Bouchard with Keith. Both pairs worked.
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Bouchard played 551 minutes in 38 games, mostly with Keith. He played 124 against Elite (22.5%), 193 against Middle (35%) and 234 against Grit (42.5)
His GF-GA was 10-4 against Elite, 11-12 against Middle and 8-5 against Grit for a total of 29-21 (58%). Keith led Oilers defensemen with a 64.86GF% (24-13) under Manson.
Manson reduced Bouchard’s minutes against elite and mid-range players by a combined 5%. He sheltered him some more with Keith and it worked. Putting players in better positions to succeed is one of the most important aspects of coaching.
Keith wasn’t a Norris Trophy caliber player in Edmonton, but his possession numbers were solid. He finished the season with 52%CF%, 51.9FF%, 51.4SF%, 50.7xGF%, 48.9HDCF%, and in actual targets he had 57.8GF% and 63.08HDGF%.
He led all Oilers defensemen in GA/60 with 2.14. Limiting the goals is quite important. I don’t understand why some people keep saying Keith had a mediocre season. He was near the top in most categories and led in some key ones for the Oilers defensemen.
Many will mention that it allowed entry into zones. That’s one stat, but it hasn’t affected his goals against. And yes, the odd time Keith got hit harder, but getting hit harder every now and then doesn’t erase the times he made good plays. I’m still shocked that people are ripping him for Adrian Kempe’s overtime goal. Keith was on the ice for 70 seconds, Kemp just stepped on the ice and was in full flight while Keith had moved to the middle of the ice, expecting to make a change before Evander Kane fell in the neutral zone and Kemp took the puck at full speed. People are acting like Keith made some kind of remarkable play on that goal.
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Keith played the first four minutes for the Oilers, he helped coach Evan Bouchard, he was a calming voice in the locker room when the Oilers fell behind 2-1 and 3-2 in the series to his teammates, and the Oilers reached the conference finals. I don’t see how anyone can view trade as a negative. Keith had a positive impact for one season, and now he’s retired, which frees up $5.538 million. It cost them Caleb Jones, who couldn’t do what Keith did in Edmonton, and a third-round pick.
The only way the deal could have gone better was if the Oilers had made it to the Stanley Cup, but they weren’t as good as Colorado. If the Oilers had Victor Hedman in Keith’s place, they still would have lost this series. Colorado was too deep, but having Keith in Edmonton has been nothing but positive when you look at the results and listen to Connor McDavid and others talk about what they learned from Keith. He wasn’t much of a talker, but when he talked about keeping calm, an even keel and not falling when they trailed the Kings, those words had a big impact on his teammates. If they believe his words mattered, how can people outside the room claim they didn’t?
Keith will officially retire this week and then wait three years before becoming a first-round Hall of Famer. He had a spectacular career and his one season in Edmonton helped him end his career on a positive note while helping the Oilers gain much needed playoff experience.
OTHER NOTES…
March 26, 2022; Calgary, Alberta, Canada; Edmonton Oilers right wing Zach Cassian (44) against the Calgary Flames during the second period at the Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergey Belsky-USA TODAY Sports
Often the hardest decision is to admit you made a mistake and then try to fix it. Ken Holland overpaid Zach Cassian when he signed him to a four-year, $3.2 million AAV. At the time, the Oilers didn’t have Evander Kane or Zach Hymon, Kyler Yamamoto was in the minors, and Jesse Puljujarvi was struggling. Holland clearly hoped Cassian would produce more, but he didn’t.
Holland could have traded Cassian, but I actually think trading Arizona for a third-round pick in 2024 and a second-rounder in 2025 was the better option. Neither were great and were self-inflicted, but Holland didn’t let the initial mistake fester and remain a detriment.
The key to trading Kassian and opening up $3.2 million in cap space is making sure Holland doesn’t overpay someone else with that money. Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi could each get $1.6 million from them, and both will have $2.7 million in salaries in the coming seasons. Maybe they come a little lower or higher, but from my seat it would be a good use of cap space. I admit that Puljujarvi could get a deal, it seems more likely that he will, but if he doesn’t (Holland won’t hand him over) then I think this promotion is fair.
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He could also use some of Keith’s cap to sign Brett Kulak. There aren’t many D-men left on the market, and none I see as an obvious upgrade over the Kulak. Kulak and Filip Broberg will be the second and third LD pairs. Kulak hasn’t played regularly in the top 4, but if Manson plans to carry heavy minutes against Sestra-Sessi again against the Elites next year, then Kulak, even on the second pairing, won’t be asked to make much stronger competition than this , which he has in the past, so signing him makes sense. Just remember, if they sign him and he struggles in a top four role at times, don’t despair because he has yet to play there consistently. Asking players to do more than they normally do is fine, but if it doesn’t work out, don’t hate the player, just realize that it wasn’t the best plan to begin with.
After Detroit acquired Ville Husso and signed him to a three-year, $4.75 million AAV, Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell are the two most attractive UFA goalie options for Edmonton to pursue in free agency. Kuemper made $5.5 million last season ($4.5 million AAV), while Campbell’s salary was $1.8 million with a $1.65 million AAV. Kuemper just won a cup, and even though they didn’t have a great playoff run, he’s still a Stanley Cup champion, and that will carry some weight when free agency begins on Wednesday.
Kuemper will cost more, but he also has a longer resume than Campbell. Over the past nine seasons, Kuemper has started 282 games. He has a career Sv% of .918 and in his last five regular seasons his Sv% from 2018-2022 is .919, .925, .928, .907 and .921. His playoff performance was affected by the fact that he had to go to eye exercises every few days and had vision problems from a previous concussion.
Campbell is two years younger than Kuemper, but has far less NHL experience. He has started 120 games over the past four seasons. He started 25, 26, 22 and 47 games in that span and his annual Sv% was .928, .904, .921 and .914. He wasn’t as consistent as Kuemper.
In the last two seasons, however, they have been quite close.
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Kuemper started 84 games and went 47-23-7 with a .917Sv%, 2.55 GAA and seven shutouts.
Campbell started 69 games going 48-12-8 with a .916Sv%, 2.49 GAA and seven shutouts.
Last season was Campbell’s first as a regular starter. In his first 20 starts, he was on fire, posting a .939Sv% and 1.89 GAA. But then in his next 19 starts, he posted an ugly .886Sv% and 3.51 GAA. He missed a month with an injury (and maybe some of the previous 19 games the rib injury was a factor), and in his last eight starts he had a .915Sv% and a 2.59 GAA. He started strong and finished solid, but had a rough middle.
Campbell should sign for a lower AAV than Kuemper. Kuemper was fifth-best in saves over expected during the regular season, and Campbell was 26th among goalies with 30+ starts. Kuemper was the most consistent goaltender and Edmonton came close to acquiring him last season before Seattle signed Grubauer and Colorado sent Arizona a better trade offer for Kuemper.
Here are the UFA goalie contracts from the past two seasons:
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Matt Murray four years $6.25 million AAV with Ottawa. Jacob Markstrom six years, $6 million AAV with Calgary. Braden Holtby two years, $4.6 million…
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