Data: UN; Graphics: Nicki Camberg/Axios
India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2023, according to a new UN report looking at population trends.
Why it matters: India, despite its democratic retreat in recent years, is the world’s largest democracy and is seen by the West as a key counterweight to China’s influence in the region, according to Zachary Basu of Axios.
- US administrations have prioritized strengthening economic and strategic ties with India as competition between the US and China has accelerated and become a defining dynamic of the 21st century.
Breaking news Breaking news: The world’s population will reach 8 billion by November 15 and 9.7 billion in 2050, but the world’s population is growing at its slowest pace since 1950 due to declining birth rates in many countries. Rising levels of emigration are also slowing growth in certain parts of the globe.
- The COVID-19 pandemic has also had an impact on overall population growth, increasing global life expectancy from 72.9 in 2019 to 71 in 2021 (but improvements in medicine and health could bring life expectancy to 77.2 years in 2050), according to the report.
What they say: The 8 billion milestone is “a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we are still falling short of our commitments to one another,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. coinciding with the publication of the report.
- “In the world we seek to build, 8 billion people mean 8 billion opportunities for dignified and fulfilling lives.”
There will be huge changes in where and how countries’ populations grow or decline, the report found.
- Most of the projected population growth by 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
- Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine will see the largest relative declines in population size over the same time period, with losses of 20% or more.
- The population of 61 countries is expected to decline by 1% due to low fertility rates. About two-thirds of the world’s population lives where the fertility rate is below 2.1 births per woman, which is around the level needed for zero growth for a population with low mortality rates.
- Migration will be the only driver of population growth in high-income countries, while fertility will be the main driver in low- and middle-income countries.
Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to show that only declining birth rates led to the slower rate of population growth, not declining birth rates and increasing emigration rates.
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