Boris Johnson’s resignation has sparked an avalanche of debate about when he should actually step down. But in at least one area there would be a real advantage for the prime minister to remain in place until his party decides on a successor – the UK’s policy towards Ukraine. Because his unwavering support for President Zelensky was an unequivocal success.
Russia’s takeover of the Luhansk region has led some to argue that now may be the time for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, given the huge costs on both sides of the conflict. Russia’s declared objectives at the beginning of this war were the capture of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces; unspecified was the need for a land bridge to Crimea, including providing access to fresh water for the Crimean Peninsula to support its military campaign. They are almost achieved.
Still, the options for negotiations look extremely bleak. The best case scenario would be what the Ukrainian people are hoping for, Russia being kicked out of all the land it took from 2014 onwards. Yet without NATO’s direct involvement, this seems unthinkable unless Russia somehow collapses internally and withdraws.
The worst outcome would be for Putin to retain the gains he made from his invasion and for the world to return to its pre-February relationship with Russia. This would show Putin that he can pursue his vindictive goals without fear of long-term punishment, which was precisely the cynical gamble that got him into this war in the first place.
A compromise option would be what President Zelensky has proposed, for Ukraine to regain territory lost since February (while guaranteeing fresh water to Crimea), but reject NATO membership (a casus belli for Putin) while accepting a candidate for membership in EU. Given that Ukraine must fight this war, they must decide when and how to negotiate. If this is acceptable to President Zelensky, then we should support him in this goal.
It seems to me highly unlikely that Russia will agree to return to the pre-February 24 occupation lines. The attitudes of both sides in this conflict hardened as blood and treasure were shed. In fact, Putin has called on his troops to prepare for a continuation of the war. Earlier today, Putin’s press secretary called for the destruction of all of Ukraine. So if we want to support Ukraine in its negotiation goal, we need to look at the support we are providing and ask ourselves if it is enough.
The West must increase its support for Ukraine or face the prospect of an unstoppable Russian victory. Western support for Ukraine is superficially united, but in reality quite fragmented. While Britain leads the way in its support for Ukraine, Germany, France and Italy are losing their resolve. Inevitably, the key player is the US; and it is vital that they reconsider their ambivalent position if the West is to achieve its goals. They must ascertain how the war is going on the ground and offer additional military support to create the conditions for a decent political outcome in the negotiations.
Russia is gaining ground in Luhansk through heavy artillery bombardment of tactical targets and long-range psychological missile strikes against deep targets that the Ukrainians are struggling to adequately respond to. In military jargon, Ukraine should be able to win the fire war. For this, their forces need many more long-range missile and artillery systems, which the US and the UK have supplied. If Ukraine succeeds in disrupting Russian logistics enough to aggravate its “fires,” it will be better able to concentrate and launch counterattacks to use its maneuvering advantages and push Russia out of the ground it now holds.
Without that, Russia is unlikely to be interested in a negotiated settlement. Instead, the ongoing Russian attrition offensive should be expected to continue, with the caveat that Russia is also using up ammunition stocks faster than it can replenish them. But as long as they see themselves winning, they can control the tempo, pause to regroup, then resume their attacks when they are renewed.
Now the West must do two things. It must equip Ukraine with the means to counter Russia’s artillery/missile style military action. And he must brace himself for a long, if not permanent, hardening of relations with Russia without a return to pre-February normalcy. As Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice chancellor and minister for the economy and climate action, said last week, this is the price of freedom.
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