Kyle Dubas has given no indication that he is trying to remove a piece from the talented but expensive core of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
So if we read the tea leaves as laid out by the general manager, that means rolling mainstays like William Nylander and Jake Muzzin will likely be back in 2022-23. And even if, say, Alexander Kerfoot and/or Justin Hall are taken off the books, that still won’t leave an executive with the kind of stack to make a huge splash in free agency.
In other words, Dubas looks ready to play money ball again, digging through spreadsheets and poring over video in search of those second-tier (third-tier?) UFA diamonds in the rough.
“Last season we were faced with a very similar exercise and a similar question of how do we improve when certain RFAs or UFAs come up. Some are due raises; some you won’t be able to afford,” said Dubas, who is comfortable letting Ilya Mikheev and Jack Campbell reap their fortunes elsewhere.
“We need to replicate, in most respects, the way we worked last summer, by going out and being able to find players who can come in, add to our group – and do it at a not-too-high cost, but taking advantage of opportunity and flourishing.’
Find the next David Kämpf.
Sign the new Michael Bunting.
Look to 2023 Ondrej Kase because 2022 Kase is likely to go.
And when it comes to the crease, explore the back-up options for new No.1 Matt Murray.
“It falls on me and our player personnel department, more than anybody else, to go out and find those players again,” Dubas said.
“It’s a challenge we embraced last summer, especially after the run we had last year and the disappointment we had then. We need to repeat this again, but also remove all errors. The margin for error is much smaller.
“It is a challenge – one we accept and one by which we will be judged in the future.”
Oh yeah.
Salary Cap: $6.36M Roster Size: 17/23 Forward Salary: $48.91M Defenseal Salary: $22.32M Goaltending Salary: $4.69M
Potential UFA Targets
Ilya Samsonov, G
With the big money going to Murray, the Maple Leafs have given up on the premium UFA goaltending market – the class of two, Darcy Kuemper and Campbell – and will turn their attention to cost-effective support to round out their tandem.
Of that lot, Samsonov — left ineligible as a pending RFA by the chasing Kuemper Washington — is the youngest and best of the bunch.
He’s 25, coming off a winning record (23-12-3) in a season with a shared workload, and his best years are likely yet to come.
Counterpoint: Samsonov couldn’t directly steal the Captials’ crease, his save percentage was below league average (.891), and GM Brian MacLellan couldn’t find a buyer on the trade market.
By missing out on Murray, the Buffalo Sabers should be among the candidates for Samsonov, who will have multiple options.
Other UFA options include Martin Jones, Thomas Grice, Dustin Tokarski, Eric Comrie and Charlie Lindgren. (The futures of veterans Braden Holtby, 36, and Jaroslav Halak, 37, are uncertain.)
Price will be of utmost importance. Dubas’ fallback is to fill the job internally.
“I think it feels good that (Erik) Kellgren and (Joseph) Wall are battling it out there,” Dubas said.
Zach Aston-Reese, LW
The search for Mikheev’s replacement in the middle six should be fascinating and wide-ranging.
Defensive-minded Aston-Reese plays with an edge and forechecks aggressively. Looking to join his third franchise at the age of 27, the undrafted wing could provide an energy boost.
Other options include shortstop Evan Rodrigues and 18-goal left wing Danton Heinen out of Pittsburgh; Chicago’s unskilled sluggers Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome; skilled Sonny Milano, not qualified from Anaheim; and late bloomer Dakota Joshua, who may not be in St. Louis for long.
Dubas entered the unqualified group twice last summer, picking up flyers for Nick Ritichi and Kase, so no one will be shocked to see him go that route again.
Justin Brown, D
Toronto needs an experienced, defensive-minded right tackle. The problem is that the UFA landscape is not full of them.
Maybe they’ll stick with Hall for the final year of his deal. Maybe not.
With Josh Manson, who Toronto has shown interest in in the past, likely to fall out of the Leafs’ price range (Anaheim is exploring a return), Brown is an option. He plays a safe and simple meat-and-potatoes game, but he can eat up minutes, help on the penalty kill, and his fundamentals are positive. Dubas kicked Braun’s tires at the deadline and a new investigation could begin.
Brown registered a plus-3 rating in Philadelphia last season despite playing with a dreadful Flyers team (minus-87 goal differential). He must be inspired to join a rival.
Another way would be to simply reunite Ilya Lyubushkin, making Russian Bear more than a rental. He was in decent form, liked by his team-mates and Dubas kept the door open – at the right price.
Darren Helm, K
Jason Spezza’s retirement and Wayne Simmonds’ streak of healthy scratches signal the need for a refreshed bottom six. The presence of a tough veteran can do wonders here.
Helm, 35, is durable, can play left wing or center and has the whole more-rings-in-the-room angle working for him. He never sacrifices offense for defense and can kill penalties.
Helm doesn’t have to make a huge commitment in terms of dollars or time.
We also wonder if John Tavares’ childhood friend and former Marley, Sam Gagner, might make sense here on a six-figure deal.
“You probably won’t be able to spend as much as you want to on these deep pieces,” Dubas said. “You’re really going to have to do a great job to find value, whether it’s someone coming off an injury, someone who hasn’t been given a lot of opportunities, or someone coming off a bad year that you think you’re seeing something in and fits your team.”
Find out the off-season bets on Canadian teams
Signing season is here. Day after day, hour after hour, NHL general managers make choices that will shape the future of their teams. Here’s what you need to know.
• Calgary: It’s getting harder and harder to imagine Johnny Gaudreau in a Flames uniform this season. If he leaves, plan B will involve swinging for the fences.
• Winnipeg: Historically, the Jets have spent more time looking for value than in a bidding war. There may be money to spend this year, but there are big holes to fill.
• Ottawa: Instead of building for tomorrow, in an endless loop, the Senators are telling their fans and their young core that they are aiming for today.
• Toronto: Kyle Dubas looks ready to play money ball again, in search of those second-tier (third-tier?) UFA diamonds in the rough.
• Vancouver:The Canucks have needs. But with little salary cap space to fill them, their focus will shift to building depth instead of chasing stars.
• Edmonton: The time has come, after trying in vain over the past two summers, to land the goaltender who can open the Oilers’ Stanley Cup window.
Sportsnet continues to release previews for each Canadian team ahead of the opening of free agency on July 13. Check back later for updates.
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