Stretching 760 miles across the Baltic Sea between western Russia and northeastern Germany, the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has been supplying gas to Europe for more than a decade. It can carry 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year – more than ten percent of the EU’s typical annual demand.
Since Monday, however, gas flows have dropped to zero. The reason is routine: an annual ten-day period of pipe maintenance. But given the context, ministers and traders are gripped by growing anxiety: will it ever be switched on again?
With Russia’s war against Ukraine now in its fifth month, the Kremlin has increasingly used its vast gas supplies, throttling volumes to Europe in response to sanctions. Once considered unusual, the prospect of a complete shutdown of Nord Stream 1 is now being taken seriously.
“For Europe’s energy security, the moment of truth has arrived,” said Simone Taliapietra, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Belgium. “Whether Russia resumes gas exports to Germany after the Nord Stream maintenance period will determine the continent’s energy, economic and political future.”
How likely is Russia to cut off supplies and how prepared is Europe?
“A complete cut off of Russian gas flows would indeed put significant pressure on the German and European economy as a whole, with ramifications in terms of political solidarity in EU countries,” Mr Tagliapietra said. “Europe must do more to prepare for this scenario, which is now more likely than ever.”
In recent decades, the continent has become addicted to cheap Russian gas, which accounted for about 40% of Europe’s supplies on the eve of the war. It is now scrambling to find other sources as politicians shrink from the leverage — and money — that such dependence gives the Kremlin. Unfortunately, other options are limited: gas is in short supply worldwide, with prices rising to record levels.
Europe wants to fill its gas storage before winter, but so far it has only reached 60%, far short of the 80% target. Efforts have been hampered by Russia cutting off buyers including Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria in recent weeks after they refused to comply with demands to pay in rubles. Gazprom, Russia’s state gas giant, cut flows to Italy by a third on Monday. In the weeks before the maintenance shutdown, it had already reduced flows through Nord Stream 1 to 40 percent of normal volumes. He blamed the sanctions for leaving him without vital equipment that Canada now said it would supply.
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