LONDON — The United Kingdom’s ruling Conservative Party has begun its race to find its next leader and the country’s next prime minister, with eight candidates now vying for the top job.
All candidates had to win the initial support of at least 20 of their fellow conservative lawmakers to advance to the first round of voting, which takes place on Wednesday.
To reduce the number of candidates to just two, more votes will now be held – starting on Wednesday – with 358 Conservative MPs asked to choose their favorite candidate to take over the party.
Any candidate who receives less than 30 votes from his fellow MPs will be eliminated in the first round of voting. Then, in the second round, the candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated. These rounds of voting continue until two candidates remain, which is expected to happen by the end of this week.
When two candidates remain, all members of the Conservative Party (around 200,000 people) are asked to vote by post for their favorite candidate. The winner is expected to be announced on September 5.
Rishi Sunak makes a speech to launch his bid to become leader of the Conservative Party on July 12, 2022 in London, England. The former chancellor was the second senior minister to resign from Boris Johnson’s cabinet last week, setting in motion the events that led Johnson to step down as leader of the Conservative Party.
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The eight candidates include well-known figures such as former finance minister Rishi Sunak — one of the favorites to win — and foreign minister Liz Truss and new finance minister Nadhim Zahawi, as well as less established ones such as Tom Tugendhat, Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch .
Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt is also in the running, as is Penny Mordaunt, the international trade secretary, another front-runner who is popular with grassroots party activists. Sajid Javid, the former health secretary, withdrew from the leadership race on Tuesday.
Showing some division between Tory MPs and those among more mainstream Conservative Party members and activists, Penny Mordaunt, a former defense secretary, topped a poll of Tory MPs this week on who should be the next leader, with 20% from the voices.
Former local government minister Kemi Badenoch was seen with 19% of the vote, followed by Rishi Sunak with 12%, according to the poll of more than 800 Tory party members on Tuesday by the Conservative Home website.
“If Putin succeeds, there will be untold further misery across Europe and dire consequences around the world,” UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said.
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On Tuesday night, the eight candidates each had 12 minutes to try to convince their colleagues why they should be the next leader of the party and the state. Several have promised to cut taxes and unite the party after the spectacular fall of Boris Johnson, who remains as prime minister but only in an acting role until a replacement is found.
Summarizing the economic implications of the candidates expected to at least make it to the second round of voting, Daiwa Capital Markets said that “at the time of writing, former chancellor Rishi Sunak looked very good to make it to the second round. There he is likely to face a populist right-wing challenger – most likely Foreign Secretary Liz Truss or Trade Secretary Penny Mordaunt.
“While Sunak opposed any further short-term loosening of fiscal policy, Truss, Mordaunt and several others argued for unfunded tax cuts that would likely be inflationary and likely lead to more monetary tightening than would have been the case under Sunak Prime Minister,” Daiwa said in a note on Tuesday.
Wide open competition
The leadership race comes after Johnson resigned as party leader last week following months of controversy over his conduct while in office. His government has been dogged by party scandals during the Covid-19 lockdown, and several party officials have been hit with allegations of sloppiness.
The final straw for many MPs who had previously supported Johnson despite his less-than-conventional leadership style was his appointment as deputy chief whip (responsible for party discipline), who had previous allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against him. of which Johnson knew. This led to a wave of resignations with ministers and officials saying Johnson no longer trusted them.
Describing Johnson’s departure as a “Bjexit”, Ian Bremer, president of the Eurasia Group, commented this week that “in the short term, UK politics is paralyzed by the lack of a caretaker government’s mandate (whether under Johnson or a new interim Prime Minister’ and that economic, foreign and defense policies are “essentially at a standstill until there is a new leadership in the autumn”.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes a statement at Downing Street in London, Britain, July 7, 2022.
Henry Nicholls | Reuters
“It’s a wide-open race for the fall … but either way, Johnson’s two most important foreign policy initiatives — Europe and Ukraine — won’t change. On the former, with Brexit and Euroscepticism already firmly in place for the Conservative Party, there is no way for a softer European policy, even on the contentious issue of Northern Ireland, among the prime ministerial contenders,” Bremer noted on Monday.
European leaders, notably French President Emmanuel Macron, are happy to see the back of Johnson and will have less dysfunctional personal diplomacy with his successor, but the overarching relationship between the UK and the EU will remain significantly strained, Bremer added.
“This leaves a lot of uncertainty in the country – about fiscal easing and corporate tax policy for example. But I don’t see any fireworks over who leads the UK causing much drama outside of old Blighty.’
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