Deandre Ayton, who remains a member of the Phoenix Suns after the team matched the Indiana Pacers’ four-year, $133 million max offer, is creating several ripple effects for this offseason and beyond.
A crucial detail that emerged after the Ayton news was that the offer sheet did not include a player or trade option, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. These are some of the cheats that can be made into contracts to make it less likely for a team to match, and also one of the downsides of limited leeway.
You’ll recall how we discussed last October that the Utah Jazz lost Gordon Hayward after just three years because he signed a 3+1 offer with a player option in the fourth year. He turned it down and joined the Boston Celtics.
The Suns don’t have to deal with either of those two things, or the odd starting-load salary structure is huge. Indiana’s weird game of chicken trying to force a sign-and-trade didn’t pay off (hey, get it?).
Ayton’s arrival puts the Suns at 14 players on the roster and over the tax line by nearly $17 million for a luxury tax bill of roughly $35 million, according to Spotrac.
Signing Ayton to that offer sheet instead of the five-year, $177 million extension he could have received in the fall mitigates some of that bill, which the Suns should take advantage of.
There are a few different ways to think about this.
Okay, first we’re going to talk about Kevin Durant.
Brooklyn, according to multiple reports, did not want Ayton. The problem, however, is that the Suns sent Ayton to the third or fourth team as part of a larger sign-and-trade deal that allowed them to provide Brooklyn with more assets.
That struck me as extra juice to seal a deal. Now, the hypothetical package is centered around Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, draft picks and at least one of Jae Crowder, Landry Shamet or Dario Saric because of their mid-level, team-friendly contracts. Ayton’s return in those scenarios limited Phoenix to giving up just two players, maybe even three, but now it should be at least three.
The problem there is that a straight 1-for-1 deal with Durant significantly hampers the Suns’ rotation and their ability to patch him up afterward. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports has reported for the past two weeks that Phoenix doesn’t want to gut its roster in a potential Durant trade, but that’s nearly impossible to accomplish without more teams getting involved.
If it’s Bridges, Johnson, Crowder, four unprotected first-round picks and some trades, how will the Suns replace Bridges? Adding another ball holder? They have almost no resources in this layout.
So the Suns will likely once again have to rely on finding a third and possibly fourth team to either help them get the salary to match Durant’s guaranteed return or fill some of those needs in the same deal.
I have my own reservations about whether Phoenix has enough to offer that Brooklyn would accept. On the other hand, if Durant only wants to be on the Suns, it will be done.
The added ease in this, and something I didn’t even discuss after Durant’s trade request, was that Ayton and Durant played together. That mitigates the loss of Bridges in a Durant deal, especially defensively.
Part of the reason I hadn’t considered it was the heights the tax bill would reach.
In theory, if the Suns trade for Kevin Durant using the minimum salary cap ($35.3M) and fill out the roster with Vet Mins…
Wage bill – approximately $178 million Tax bill – approximately $76.5 million
— David (@theIVpointplay) July 15, 2022
The Suns are calm about it according to Gambadoro.
The Suns are committed to doing whatever it takes to win a championship and that includes paying a whopping luxury tax of 60-70-80 and more million if they feel that’s what they have to do.
— John Gambadoro (@Gambo987) July 14, 2022
And remember, it doesn’t have to be just about Durant. If this lottery goes south for Phoenix, he could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.
Finally, as for the willingness to spend, how about extending Johnson if he’s still a member of the Suns?
To get back to who could be on the move, the Suns’ core rotation is now Ayton, Saric, Bismack Biyombo and Joc Landale. Phoenix should want to keep Saric and the occasional playmaking dynamic, a fifth unit that was sorely lacking last season.
There are also limited trade chips, and at the end of the day, we’re talking about the remaining 14-18 minutes that Ayton doesn’t play that Biyombo proved capable of last year.
The Suns still have a taxpayer-average exception of about $6.5 million to use in free agency as well. The options are very limited. Dennis Schroeder is the only one that comes to mind. Regardless, the only downside is the tax bill going up, and taking a chance on a player who could be a cog on the bench is worth it. We saw how much the lack of depth hurts the suns when the lights are at their brightest.
All of this holds up for the Suns front office, which has certainly planned for several different scenarios.
For now, we’re back to the same waiting game with Durant. Patience everyone! Be strong!
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