The prospect that former President Trump could face challengers from his own party in 2024 is growing, even as the former president moves closer to another bid for the White House.
While Trump hasn’t formally announced his candidacy for president, he’s pretty much said it’s a matter of when, not if. And while the former president is playing down the chances of another Republican beating him for the nomination, there are growing signs he could face a formidable primary challenge once the race kicks into high gear.
Recent polls show that many GOP voters are ready to ditch Trump. And as the Jan. 6 hearings continue to pile on the former president, other 2024 Republican hopefuls are making the rounds in early voting states, sparking fresh speculation that they plan to challenge the party’s de facto leader.
A New York Times-Siena College poll released this week found that 49 percent of Republican primary voters said they would support the former president. But 47 percent said they would support another GOP candidate.
“People are open to another candidate,” said Republican strategist Saul Anousis. “Looking, from a futuristic perspective, at who are some of the younger, newer Republican leaders emerging in the country.”
“There are a lot of new leaders emerging who will kind of continue the policies that Trump supports and they don’t have some of the baggage that Trump has, automatically bringing a big anti-Trump group to the table when you start a campaign,” he continued.
And these younger Republican leaders are criss-crossing the country testing the waters.
Former Trump administration officeholders such as Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have made a number of trips to early presidential races in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, while sitting senators such as Sen. Tom Thome. Cotton (R-Ark.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Tim Scott (RS.C.) have also been named as potential 2024 candidates.
One strategist close to Trump’s orbit expressed some skepticism about the likes of Pence and Pompeo challenging the former president, suggesting they are positioning themselves in case Trump decides not to run.
Even Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), who won his first and only election last November, has been floated as a possibly viable choice for Republicans. Youngkin made headlines earlier this month when he addressed the Nebraska Republican Party.
But it’s Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) who has drawn the most attention as a potential alternative to Trump.
DeSantis, a former congressman, was one of the former president’s closest allies during the Trump administration. The governor received particular praise for keeping Florida open through most of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reports emerged last week that DeSantis plans to hold a private fundraiser with GOP mega-donors later this month, while Politico reported that the governor recently convened a number of his top donors and some GOP governors in Fort Lauderdale.
DeSantis has said he is focused on his re-election bid in November, but speculation of a potential presidential run by the governor is growing.
“DeSantis is perhaps the most viable alternative to Trump today,” Anousis said. “Many people look to him as the next generation of Republican leaders.”
But DeSantis’ candidacy could lead to a potential clash with Trump, who takes credit for DeSantis’ political success.
A Republican strategist close to Trump’s orbit told The Hill that DeSantis is “more likely to run than not to run,” but argued that the governor will battle Trump in the primary.
“A lot of his appeal is around his support for Trump and him being Trump’s governor in Florida,” the strategist said, before suggesting that DeSantis’ support could take a hit in a potential primary if he tries to attacks or criticizes the former president.
Although Trump is the clear favorite in most hypothetical Republican primary polls in 2024, recent data shows that DeSantis is starting to close the gap.
A much-discussed University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released last month showed DeSantis with 39 percent support among likely Republican primary voters in the state, compared to 37 percent for Trump.
Meanwhile, a KLAS TV-The Hill-Emerson College poll released this week showed both DeSantis and Trump beating Biden in the battleground state of Nevada.
Strategists suggest that the narrowing of the gap between Trump and DeSantis, in addition to Trump’s performance in the New York Times-Siena College poll, is indicative of a larger trend.
“He’s on a downward trend and has been for the last year,” said Keith Naughton, a Republican strategist.
But Republicans also warn that Trump has the best chance of winning the primary at this point because of his fundraising ability, grassroots support and strong name identification.
“He’s still the 800-pound gorilla in the room. I think at this stage of the game, if he decides to run, he would be the candidate to beat, if not the presumptive candidate,” Anousis said.
The national mood couldn’t be better for Republicans heading into the midterm elections in 2022. Biden’s approval ratings continue to slide as inflation continues to rise. And with Republicans looking poised to make big gains in Congress and across the country in November, party strategists say the environment is ripe for exploring a potential GOP presidential bid.
“Given how vulnerable Biden is, it’s going to attract a lot of candidates,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.
But party strategists warn that Trump could hurt Republican chances in 2024 if he continues to center his 2024 message on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
“He’s in reruns right now. It’s not Seinfeld reruns, it’s Cosby Show reruns, nothing anyone really wants to see anymore,” Naughton said.
Instead, Republicans say that whoever their nominee is should be critical of Biden’s first term, not his presidential campaign of four years ago.
“The 2024 election will be a record for the Democrats. “Whether or not Biden runs again, Democrats will have to determine his tenure,” Conant said.
“I think in order for the Republicans to succeed, we have to point out that Biden was not successful and we can do better,” he continued. “If we try to make the election about who’s going to win in 2020, that’s not going to inspire independent voters to come out and vote for the Republican nominee.”
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It remains unclear when Trump will make an announcement, but strategists agree that the former president should keep it under wraps until the midterm elections for the sake of his party.
“Some voters are going to resent a candidate looking to the next election when we haven’t even had the one right in front of us yet,” Conant said. “There will be plenty of time for presidential politics in 2023.”
Brett Samuels contributed to this report.
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