The Biden administration is under pressure to deploy more offensive and defensive missile systems in Ukraine as the former Soviet state faces a critical turning point on the battlefield with Russia.
As Ukrainian forces battle Kremlin troops for control of the eastern Donbass region and seek to end the war this year — a goal that requires more air and missile defenses, early warning systems, ammunition and other equipment — defense officials and experts say a faster influx of such lethal aid could more quickly bring the conflict to an end.
How realistic this is, however, is up for debate.
The US and its European allies and partners have tried to keep up with Ukraine’s requests for more weapons, with the former alone providing $7.3 billion in lethal aid to Kyiv since this week.
The latest $400 million package, announced last week, includes four High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS). The truck-mounted systems can fire multiple munitions that are satellite-guided, allowing the Ukrainians to more precisely strike targets at distances of more than 40 miles — farther than any artillery system previously provided to the Ukrainians .
HIMARS — 12 of which have now been promised to Ukraine since last month — have boosted its forces in its battles, which for the past few months have been centered on a battle for control of its easternmost region, which has reached a stalemate with Russia making a small progress.
But the missile systems helped the standoff, with the country’s defense minister tweeting last weekend that the deployment of HIMARS “has already made a HUGE difference on the battlefield.”
“More of them as well [American] ammunition and equipment will increase our strength and help demilitarize the terrorist state,” he added.
The Ukrainians have used the system to hit about 20 targets at Russian munitions depots since acquiring the systems in the past few weeks, according to media reports, showing the equipment is working effectively in combat.
Although four of the launchers are currently in use by U.S.-trained Ukrainian troops — with four more expected to arrive in the country this month — that is still far short of the up to 300 rocket launchers, according to Ukrainian officials. which have to retaliate against the Kremlin.
Moreover, Russian forces have the ability to fire several times beyond what Ukraine’s forces can manage, keeping the war at a state of attrition in the industrial heartland of the Donbas country.
But the Biden administration has held back on sending large numbers of offensive and defensive missile systems along with other high-tech equipment, fearing the systems might be too complex for Ukrainian forces to learn to operate and keep on the move, according to Mark Kancian, former Pentagon official, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Typical training courses on how to operate such systems usually take months, but have been reduced to three weeks for the Ukrainians, a much shortened schedule.
“I think the administration actually knows they don’t want to send equipment before the Ukrainians are ready to maintain and operate,” he told The Hill.
That theory has since been partially debunked after a senior US defense official told reporters last week that the Pentagon found it “impressive” how quickly the Ukrainians learned how to operate and deploy HIMARS.
Another holdup, Cancian noted, is the fear that if the equipment breaks down too quickly, it can’t be maintained.
“I also think the administration is concerned that at some point … someone will take a picture of a field full of trash that Ukrainians can no longer support,” he said. “I think that’s what’s driving the administration to accelerate what they’re providing.”
Even with Western commitments, the Ukrainians still don’t have enough weapons to end the war against the Russians any time soon, who could still deploy reserves to break the impasse in Donbass, according to former NATO Supreme Commander Retired General Wesley Clark .
“As the Russian reserves build up, about 20 to 40 battalion groups are held back, there could be a strategic breakthrough,” Clarke said on CNN last week. “This breakthrough . . . could be the key to the defeat of the Ukrainian army in Donbass.
And the Kremlin has time on its side, Finland’s ambassador said earlier this week, predicting that Russia could fight on for a “very long time” as US-led sanctions against Moscow over the attack are unlikely to weaken it for long. one year.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said in June that the alliance must be prepared for a war that will drag on for “years”, adding that giving Kyiv more advanced weapons would soon increase its chances of success to push Russians from Donbass.
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Stoltenberg’s assessment of a long war has since been bolstered by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move on Thursday to sign a law allowing his government to introduce special economic measures to support Moscow’s forces during “anti-terrorist and other operations”.
What is also troubling, after almost five months of war, cracks are beginning to show between the US and its European and global partners as the countries are hit by domestic pressures and crises, including rapid inflation and energy prices, fears of recession and political pressure.
Ukraine’s war of attrition could exceed the world’s capacity to focus on providing support to Kyiv, regional observers have warned.
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