Asked how he would handle Trump’s third presidential bid, McConnell paid attention. “I think we’re going to have a crowded field for president,” the Senate Republican leader said. “My guess is that most of that will play out later and people will choose their candidates during a crowded primary field.”
Which might seem trite – unless you know that McConnell never says anything without a) thinking it through first and b) meaning exactly what he’s saying.
That being said, it’s fair to read McConnell’s response as something of a “come on, the water’s nice” moment, an attempt to ensure that aspiring Republican candidates aren’t scared off by Trump’s entry into the race.
It also directly contradicts the way Trump has talked about his candidacy — and the 2024 race more broadly.
1) He almost announced he was running. “Well, I think I’ve already made that decision, so it doesn’t affect anything anymore,” Trump said of another White House bid in a recent interview with New York magazine. “I think I’ve already made that decision.”
2) He is dismissive of other potential suitors. Of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump said the following in the same interview: “I endorsed Ron, he was 3, and as soon as I endorsed him, he went to first place, he wasn’t going to win.”
Trump, despite his boast that he practically “made” DeSantis, is well aware of the fact that recent polls show the Florida governor will be his closest challenger. And he is aware that he is suffering damage from the continuing hearings on January 6. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that roughly half of those who plan to vote in the 2024 GOP primary would prefer someone other than Trump as the party’s nominee. At least part of Trump’s reported interest in running before the 2022 midterms are over is to stake his claim and get someone else to challenge him.
McConnell knows this — and is working to counter it.
Of course, whether some major candidates — DeSantis, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence — end up stepping in is beyond the control of both Trump and McConnell.
And whether anyone running can actually beat Trump is a question no one can answer right now.
The point: McConnell clearly prefers someone other than Trump as the party’s nominee in 2024, so he’s doing what he can to encourage them not to be bullied by the former president into running.
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