After an All-Star break filled with nostalgia, home runs and bullpen dominance, the MLB schedule restarts Thursday with about 70 games remaining for each team. So before the second half begins, let’s dive into the top 10 storylines to watch between now and October — because there’s plenty of baseball and just as much drama left on the diamond.
1. Record chases in the Bronx
The first half of the season couldn’t have gone much better for the Yankees. They lead the league in runs scored per game and runs allowed per game. They got All-Star-level campaigns from both a trio of expected prospects (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole) and a trio of surprises (Jose Trevino, Nestor Cortez Jr. and Clay Holmes). And they struck gold by signing Matt Carpenter, who hit 13 homers and slashed an absolutely unachievable .354/.469/.911 in 31 games.
Even in a competitive division — with all teams at .500 or better — the Yankees built a 13-game lead. The question now isn’t whether they’ll win their first AL East title since 2019 and just their second since 2012. (FanGraphs projects they have a 99 percent chance of doing so.) It’s whether they’ll challenge MLB’s all-time best a regular season record of 116 wins. Recent weeks have shown how difficult it will be for them to maintain their pace.
After sweeping a doubleheader against the Guardians on July 2, the Yankees were 58-21, en route to 119 wins. But a 6-7 record in the 13 games since then has slowed them to just 113 wins. They haven’t even played poorly in that stretch – they’ve outscored their opponents 94-59 as four of the losses have come by one run – but they have so little margin for error to reach 116 that any minor stumble could ruin their chances .
And while the Astros, just 4.5 games back, could push the Yankees for home-field advantage, New York may not make it to the regular season finish line. The team has benefited from excellent health so far, especially in the rotation, as its top five starters have combined to make 88 of a possible 92 starts. However, Luis Severino is now on the disabled list, while Cortez has already surpassed his career high for innings pitched. That means the Yankees can loosen the reins down the stretch with spot starts from Triple-A arms.
But the team’s winning record isn’t the only milestone on the Yankees’ second-half radar. On an individual level, Judge has a chance to climb the single-season home run list. He doesn’t have a chance to match Barry Bonds’ 73-homer mark, but he could become the first player since Bonds to hit 60 in a season. Other than Bonds, Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa in the steroid era, only the Yankees (Babe Ruth in 1927, Roger Maris in 1961) have climbed that high.
Like his team, Judge’s velocity has deteriorated recently—at his current rate, he’d finish the season with 58 homers—and he’s also enjoyed good health, playing in 89 of a possible 92 games. While the MVP favorite remains close to the 60-homer mark, he’s sure to capture the attention of the sport all summer long.
2. Possible trade with Juan Soto
The Nationals have been trying to extend Juan Soto — the 23-year-old prodigy who is arguably the best pure hitter in the majors — for some time, but have been unable to extend him as long. Last week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Soto rejected their latest offer of $440 million over 15 years. Per Rosenthal, “The team now plans to entertain trade offers for him.”
Those offers better be massive, because Soto should control the once-a-decade trade price. In the 2000s, Miguel Cabrera was traded from the Marlins to the Tigers in exchange for a package headlined by two top-10 prospects (Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin); in 2010 Chris Sale changed the color of his socks until he didn’t. 2 overall prospect Yoan Moncada and top 20 prospect Michael Kopech went from Boston to Chicago.
And Soto is worth more than both Cabrera and Salle at these points in their respective careers. He is MLB’s best young player; he’s under team control through 2024, meaning a team that acquires him before the Aug. 2 deadline would benefit from at least three playoff appearances with Soto; and oh yeah, even in his down year, he still leads the league with a 20 percent walk rate and ranks in the top 10 in wRC+. Since the turn of the 20th century, the only players with a better career hitting percentage than Soto’s .427 through age 23 are Ted Williams and a shoeless Joe Jackson.
Few teams even have the potential prospect capital needed to make a deal for a player of that caliber. The final Nationals have two weeks to decide if they want to go for a blockbuster deal and release another star from the franchise.
3. Other top commercial targets
Soto is easily the best player to switch teams this month, but he’s not the only one worth pursuing. The worst teams in the league have a variety of players who can step up an opponent in need. Position players include All-Star starting catcher Willson Contreras, who ranked third among catchers in wRC+; Josh Bell, who is third in that statistic among first basemen; Andrew Benintendi, who is third among left wingers; Ian Happ, who is fourth among left fielders; and Brian Reynolds, who is sixth among center fielders. The top starters likely to be traded are Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo and Oakland’s Frankie Montas, plus the Rangers’ surprise All-Star Martin Perez.
The most interesting name on this list is probably Contreras, because of the particularly difficult adjustment for a new catcher. As a first baseman, Bell could step into any new infield with ease, but Contreras will have to learn an entirely new pitching staff for whichever team acquires him, and may play some DH while he adjusts . Aside from Jonathan Lucroy, who traded from Milwaukee to Texas after vetoing a trade with Cleveland in 2016, top catchers rarely change teams midseason.
4. Longest playoff drought in major North American sports
Who will trade for these primary goals? One leading buyer should be the Mariners, who have catapulted into the playoff race with a 14-game winning streak dating back to July 2. As Seattle fans need no reminding, the M’s are hoping to reach their first postseason since Ichiro Suzuki was a rookie in 2001.
The Mariners have soared behind a combination of young stars – Julio Rodriguez (2.9 fWAR, tied for 20th in the majors) and Logan Gilbert (10-3 record, 2.76 ERA) – and returning veterans. Offseason acquisition Eugenio Suarez (127 wRC+) rebounded from a miserable 2021 campaign, while Robbie Ray, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, underwent a midseason transformation: Through his first 12 starts, Ray posted a 4.97 ERA and a 26 percent strikeout rate; in his last seven starts, he posted a 1.36 ERA and a 34 percent strikeout rate.
The Mariners have already made one trade this summer, bringing in Carlos Santana, who has hit up the middle in 13 of Seattle’s 14-game hitting streak. General manager Jerry Dipoto may have more moves coming soon. The last time the Mariners made the playoffs, Rodriguez was less than a year old. Now he can take them back to October.
5. Bringing the Orioles back to prominence
Seattle isn’t the only team to turn its season around with a long hitting streak in July. The Orioles went 10-0 from July 3-13, which was even more of a surprise: At 46-46 at the break, Baltimore is now within single digits of its best 55-game win total in half a decade.
With top prospect Adley Rutschman joining a lineup that also includes Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle and — in a down year — Cedric Mullins, the Orioles now have the foundation of a future contender. And even in a convoluted division, Baltimore’s hot streak means the team has a chance to move that “future” designation to the present. More reinforcements may also be on the way: Infielder Gunnar Henderson—Baseball Prospectus’ new no. 1 prospect—currently tearing through the upper secondary.
6. The NL East chase
Oh, you thought we were done with double-digit hitting streaks? Let’s turn our attention to the National League, where defending champion Atlanta used 14 players in early June to overcome a slow start and get back into the division race. At the end of May, Atlanta trailed the Mets by 10.5 games in the NL East; is now just 2.5 back with 12 contests in the second half against the division leader.
Not every Atlanta star has lived up to the billing — Ronald Acuña Jr. was more good than great in his return from a torn ACL; Ozzie Albies had a .289 on-base percentage before breaking his leg, but Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, William Contreras and prospect Michael Harris II have carried the offense. And in the rotation, Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider — currently striking out 38 percent of opposing hitters, the highest mark in the majors (min. 70 innings) — have quietly given Atlanta one of the best starting trios around.
Atlanta isn’t the only NL East contender that took some time to rev up its engine this spring. After Joe Girardi was fired as manager on June 3, the Phillies rode a nine-game winning streak of their own to firmly enter the playoff race. Their position is weaker with Bryce Harper sidelined with a broken thumb. A bunch of the team’s infielders, along with outfielder Nick Castellanos, also seem to have forgotten how to hit. Philly has its longest postseason drought outside of Seattle in 10 years and growing. Perhaps the two teams will be back together in October.
7. Perpetual Mets angst
The team Atlanta and Philadelphia are chasing isn’t entirely clear, even if it seemed that way earlier this spring. At 58-35, the Mets are on pace for their…
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