Last weekend, big news broke out of Washington that the Nationals had a massive 15-year, $440 million contract offer rejected by young superstar outfielder Juan Soto.
There were also reports that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, believed Washington’s offer was about $100 million below fair value. It became clear to the Nationals owners and front office that they would not be able to sign their young player. So, they made the contract offer public through the media and then made it clear they would likely trade the 23-year-old.
This was Soto’s second major negotiation the Nationals have had with Boras. Washington had previously offered $350 million over 13 years. The only difference is that Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said the team has no intention of trading Soto after the first round of negotiations failed. At that point they decided they would probably make another offer and just wanted to regroup. They may even have believed they knew what it would take in the end to close a deal.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the club is up for sale, so Nationals management may have wanted to discuss whether the team would be more valuable if Soto were to sign an extraordinary deal or if they would be better off trading him for multiple impact perspectives Well done.
The direction is now clear. The Nationals will not sign Soto and he will be traded, most likely before the Aug. 2 deadline.
Soto won’t be a free agent until the end of the 2024 season, so if the Nats don’t hear the offer they were hoping for at the trade deadline, they could opt out and wait until the end of the season to trade him. Any team that acquires the right fielder now will potentially have him for three playoff runs before hitting free agency. Its value will never be higher than it is now. It would take a significant talent pool to make the deal happen.
There will be more than a handful of teams with interest. Since Soto won’t be a free agent for another two and a half years, any team that truly believes he is playoff worthy this year or next will likely make an offer. It doesn’t matter if they think they can sign him long-term. He won’t sign until he becomes a free agent anyway. So if he can help a team make the playoffs, he’s worth acquiring now.
That includes the Toronto Blue Jays. My initial thought was that he doesn’t make sense for Toronto, but I’ve changed my mind. Soto in the same batting order as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez would make for a formidable lineup. Soto’s extreme patience and discipline would be extremely beneficial to Guerrero, Bichette and Hernandez. His approach could rub off on the rest of the lineup, which is perfect for a player of Soto’s age and experience.
My initial hesitation about the Jays stemmed from the reality that they likely couldn’t sign Soto and still sign Guerrero, Bichette and Hernandez long term. So what? Having Soto could give the Jays options on how to spend their money.
And even if Soto were to hit free agency, the two-plus years he would have played in Toronto could spur him to ask to re-sign there as a free agent. If the Jays find out they can’t sign Guerrero to a long-term deal, they could sign Soto and let Guerrero walk. Toronto probably can’t afford both, but it’s good to have options.
The other thing to remember is that two years and more is a long time. If the Jays acquire Soto in the next 10 days, there’s nothing saying they couldn’t trade him down the road. Of course, the hope would be that they take him to three playoff series en route to three World Series championships. But if things don’t go the way the Jays hope, they can always trade him at the deadline next year, or the year after that, or anytime in between.
So what are we really talking about?
Make the deal to acquire him and let him lead you to three straight championships, or cut your losses at any time and recoup some or all of the prospects needed to acquire him in the first place. The difference between the acquisition cost and what they could get back later if they decide to trade him is worth the opportunity to chase a World Series or two.
What would it take to get Soto from the Nationals? I have seen so many different opinions. Some of the speculative trade offers I’ve seen from members of the media have been outrageous. Soto is very good, but this is not a Herschel Walker situation. Walker was a former Dallas Cowboy running back who was traded to the Minnesota Vikings in 1989 in a deal that ultimately included 18 players and draft picks.
Last year at the trade deadline, the Nationals traded veteran ace pitcher Max Scherzer, who was a free agent at the end of the season, and All-Star Trea Turner, who had one more season under control, to the Dodgers for two blue-chip prospects (starting pitcher Josiah Gray and catcher Kebert Ruiz). Soto might be worth more than two blue-chip prospects, but not that much more.
The Jays will likely have to include infielder Orelvis Martinez (currently at Double-A New Hampshire), plus catcher Gabriel Moreno and pitcher Nate Pearson (both currently at Triple-A Buffalo) and possibly Cavan Biggio. Yes, it’s a sizable package that would hurt some, but you don’t get a superstar for nothing.
After making the Soto deal, I would trade a package built around outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has two years of control remaining after this season, to acquire pitching.
Gurriel could get a package for the Jays that includes starting pitcher Martin Perez and reliever Joe Barlow or Brock Burke of the Texas Rangers. Or maybe he could help the Jays land starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard and relievers Aaron Loup and Ryan Segara from the Los Angeles Angels. Or lefties Gregory Soto and Andrew Chaffin and righty Michael Fulmer of the Detroit Tigers, who need offense. Or Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez.
This has a chance to be a remarkable trade deadline. Soto’s sweepstakes has everyone drooling because he’s such a good guy. The Jays could be in the mix, but they’d have to beat the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Giants and Mariners, among others, to get it.
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