CALGARY – The question is important.
The task, monumental.
What the Calgary Flames get in return for Matthew Tkachuk will determine the direction of the franchise.
After losing two of the league’s eight 100-point players, will the club rebound or rebuild?
A source close to the situation said the Flames are looking for three or four players in exchange for the 104-point unicorn.
While discussions with each team are different, based on their personnel, the main goal is to land a top-six forward, a top prospect and a first-round pick.
That’s in line with the return Buffalo got last year when Jack Eichel and a third-round pick went to Vegas for Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, a protected top-10 first-rounder in 2022 and a second-rounder in 2023.
The big difference is that the Sabers were free to shop Eichel to any team they wanted.
Although Tkachuk’s contract is void of a no-trade clause, the Flames are limited to dealing with the handful of teams Tkachuk would be willing to sign a long-term extension with.
Changing it elsewhere would severely limit the returns from it as a one-year rental.
A source close to Tkachuk denied the accuracy of the purported trade list, which included St. Louis, Vegas, Florida, Nashville and Dallas.
Not all teams on Tkachuk’s actual wish list are interested or able to part with significant assets to make such a trade while committing to paying the raw winger over $10 million per year on a long-term contract.
So GM Brad Treliving is focused on simply trying to acquire as many top assets as possible, which means he faces options that could include a package of younger prospects and high draft picks. which don’t come close to filling the holes left by the sudden departure of Johnny Gaudreau and his friend.
If so, some of these assets could either be turned around to meet current needs or retained as part of what might become a redevelopment.
That’s how much the Flames’ fate hinges on this trade.
In 2017, Matt Duchene was sent from Colorado to Ottawa in a three-way trade that sent Kyle Turris from Ottawa to Nashville.
Returning for the Avalanche were a conditional first-round pick, third-round pick Shane Bowers and Andrew Hammond from the Senators, as well as second-round picks Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev.
Again, no trade restrictions limit Colorado’s ability to cash in on Duchene, but the trade was made a full year after his trade request was made.
The Eichel deal was more than six months in the making.
It’s been less than a week since the Flames were informed that Tkachuk was not interested in signing an extension with Calgary beyond next season, prompting the complex mission of finding the best candidate on his list of approved destinations.
It doesn’t have to happen before the Aug. 11 arbitration date, which was set Thursday, but waiting after that hampers the process because the team acquiring him can’t sign him to an extension until Jan. 1, 2023.
The clock is ticking, the tension is high.
Meanwhile, the outside option of adding significant free agents like Nazem Kadri or John Klingberg is on hold, pending certainty of the cost of the returning assets.
If the Flames can land a top-6 forward like Jordan Kyrou (yes, we can confirm St. Louis is on his trade list — after all, Tkachuk’s father, Keith, is the Blues’ director of recruiting) as part of a deal, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Flames’ revamped roster can still contend for a playoff spot next season.
The team still has one of the best goalies in the NHL, aided by a solid blue line that ranked Calgary third in goals against last season.
Of course, the attack will be more difficult to achieve without the departing duo, who scored 28% of their goals.
But the reigning coach of the year, Daryl Sutter, has long been able to squeeze a lot more out of his troops than expected.
There are still plenty of significant players around who helped the Flames escape the Pacific Division last year, such as Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, Tyler Toffoli, Blake Coleman, Rasmus Anderson, Noah Hannifin, Chris Tanev and recently re-signed Nikita Zadorov.
Andrew Mangiapane’s contract negotiations could also play a major role in the team’s direction, as the 35-goal scorer is scheduled for an arbitration hearing on Aug. 5 with just one year remaining before he too can test the open market.
His agent, Rich Winter, told Sportsnet on Monday that Mangiapane is open to signing a multi-year contract extension with the club, but agreeing to terms may be easier said than done given how many stars are his numbers in limited ice time.
Mangiapane holds all the cards, as anything less than the market value offered by the Flames would likely mean he’s done in Calgary as well.
Stay on the line.
Oliver Kylington’s arbitration hearing is August 10.
As for rebound potential, Jacob Pelletier may be ready to step up to the NHL after a stellar rookie season in Stockton, Dustin Wolf was the AHL’s best netminder last season as a rookie, and the 2021 first-round pick Matthew Coronato will likely make his Flames debut at the end of his sophomore season at Harvard, where he was one of the top recruits in the nation last year.
These are dark days in Cowtown, as not only did Gaudreau and Tkachuk represent one of the most terrifying double deflections in NHL history, but they further hindered the club by handcuffing Treliving from moving the team forward on other fronts.
While agility will serve the team well, maximizing Tkachuk’s return is more important.
So much so, the direction of the organization will be dictated by him.
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