An explosion in sales to Conservative Party members could significantly shake up the party’s grassroots, as well as long-standing power dynamics between various factions, multiple sources told Global News.
The biggest beneficiary of this shake-up is likely to be Pierre Poilievre, the presumptive front-runner to lead the Conservative Party of Canada into the next general election.
Read more: Pierre Poilievre could face hefty fine with plan to skip Conservative leadership debate
“This will be Pierre Poilievre’s party. There is no doubt about it,” said a Conservative source. The source is not affiliated with Poilievre’s campaign, but has direct information on the party’s slate of electable leaders.
“Erin (O’Toole) and Andrew (Shear) never commanded him like he will. And … based on everything he’s said in the past and everything he’s offering in this campaign, the Reform Party is finally taking over.”
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“This will be the most right-wing leader we have ever seen in the history of our country,” the source added.
While party leadership declined to authenticate campaign membership sales, Poilievre’s campaign said it had registered more than 312,000 memberships — just under half of the roughly 675,000 eligible voters for the Sept. 10 contest.
Three sources from different leadership campaigns told Global News this week that Poilievre’s tally includes a significant number of “new” Conservatives – members who have not previously been involved in federal party politics.
1:45 Poilievre marches with convoy of protesters ahead of Canada Day celebrations Poilievre marches with convoy of protesters ahead of Canada Day celebrations – June 30, 2022
Although the ballots have not yet been counted, most insiders — including those from rival campaigns — agree that Poilievre is likely to be the next leader.
According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, 49 percent of Conservative voters view Poilievre favorably, while 29 percent have a negative impression of the front-runner. Jean Charest, Poilievre’s closest challenger, came in with 45 percent of those polled viewing him favorably. But due to a small sample size of 259 Conservative voters interviewed between July 12 and 13, the poll is considered accurate to within 6.9 percentage points.
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While Conservative leadership races are usually surprising – the smart money was on Maxime Bernier in 2017 and everyone involved knew Peter Mackay would win in 2020 – it’s hard to see a path to victory for anyone other than Poilievre , especially after the disqualification of Patrick Brown .
One wave suggested it was the “Pierre Poilievre Conservatives” or “PPC” – a reference to Bernier’s far-right party.
If this is to be accepted, the most pressing question is: What kind of Conservative coalition is Poilievre building, and can it be successful – not just in a Conservative leadership race, but in the next general election?
Poilievre’s new conservative coalition
Poilievre’s supporters dispute suggestions that they are courting the far-right convoy crowd. They suggest the media is exaggerating the connections by hyperventilating every time Poilievre takes on a protest that includes fringe figures.
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Read more: Poilievre leads protest convoy march to man with far-right extremist ties
But the Carlton MP’s messages of “freedom” and opposition to vaccine mandates dovetail with the core tenets of the convoy movement. His long-standing philosophy of reducing the reach of government also bodes well for the anti-authoritarian movement in Canada that has grown in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While this is no coincidence, a source close to Poilievre’s campaign suggested that some of his earliest policy statements — pushing provinces to require occupational licensing authorities to rule on immigrant applications within 60 days and offering small loans to immigrants who require additional courses to obtain professional certification—were intended to inoculate the applicant from accusations that he supported a far-right agenda.
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But his decision in June to march with James Topp, a vaccine mandate protester with well-documented ties to Canadian far-right groups, and Poilievre’s open embrace of the convoy movement will not be forgotten when the next general election rolls around.
“The base has shifted dramatically … to the extreme right, which is opening up the (political) center, the center is now wide open,” said one source, who agreed to discuss internal party politics on condition of anonymity.
“His strategy seems to be to get those people who don’t normally vote or don’t vote Conservative, the far-right people for whom the Conservative Party (isn’t) far-right enough, to move (the party) over there – well, unlock that and it will give you gave those four (or) five points you need to form a government.
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“Maybe it’s working,” the source added.
Read more: Poilievre encourages anti-vaccine mandate protests amid reports of Canada Day rally
Some have considered a pivot for Poilievre, tough during the leadership, then moderate before the next general election, similar to what ousted leader Erin O’Toole tried to do in 2020. But Poilievre’s supporters and opponents don’t believe that is possible .
“Pierre is Pierre,” said one supporter.
If “Pierre is Pierre,” who are his supporters?
According to an internal campaign document dated June 4, Poilievre has signed up 118,996 members in Ontario, the most important province for the election, which the Conservatives unsuccessfully tried to win in the previous two elections.
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Membership sales could not be independently verified and the party declined to confirm them.
The campaign claims they sold an additional 71,759 memberships in Alberta — the Conservative heartland — 50,709 in British Columbia and 25,453 in Quebec.
Anthony Koch, a spokesman for the Poilievre campaign, said they had sold at least 100 memberships in all 338 ridings, a key metric in the party’s points-and-riding-based leadership race.
6:19 Charest believes he is consensus Conservative leadership candidate Charest believes he is consensus Conservative leadership candidate – Jun 19, 2022
The Poilievre campaign declined to comment for this article. But a source close to the campaign said three themes — “free speech,” opposition to vaccine mandates and fiscal restraint — drew Poilievre’s disparate crowd of supporters to his candidacy.
“Are there people who have signed up for us and are anti-Covid mandates? Yeah, I think that’s safe to say,” said another Poilievre campaign source, who agreed to discuss strategy on condition of anonymity.
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“It’s not the only issue, but it’s definitely an issue that (is) driven across party lines, more than any issue I’ve ever seen.” There’s a reason, you know, NDP supporters in Timmins, Ontario, come to a Pierre Poilievre rally and sign up as members of the Conservative Party of Canada.”
COVID and the political fallout from public health measures have “changed the dynamic” of Conservative politics, the source said. White collar workers could work at home in relative safety. Blue collar workers were closer to the front line.
“(Politics) has become a real class structure as opposed to a left/right dynamic,” the source said.
The trick for Poilievre will be to convince those blue-collar voters — a demographic coveted by Erin O’Toole during his failed 2021 election bid — that the Conservatives are their political home.
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A senior Poilievre campaign source said they had not given much thought to what would come after the Sept. 10 vote. Despite the widespread belief that the campaign has already won, those at the helm insist they are not taking it for granted.
Read more: Brown attacks conservatives, Poilievre after disqualification: ‘Fake election’
The source added that they don’t believe anyone has any real idea who the new members of the Conservative Party of Canada, numbering more than 675,000, are, and won’t until Sept. 11, when the ballots are counted and the detailed analysis is done.
But the “vast, vast majority” of Poilievre’s membership sales were to people new to partisan politics, the source said.
“If they voted, I bet the only other time they voted for Trudeau was in 2015 because they wanted to legalize pot,” the source said.
“It’s a libertarian bent to the people you see at events.”
Those close to Poilievre believe that his economic message – curbing government spending, tackling inflation and cutting taxes -…
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