The White House’s pushback against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan to visit Taiwan has raised concerns in Taipei that the dispute will further compromise its security.
Several people involved in national security policy in Taiwan said the country was caught between the risk of China “punishing” Taipei for Pelosi’s planned visit next month and the risk of Washington canceling the trip and effectively giving China a say in policy. USA and Taiwan.
Three people in Taipei familiar with the situation said the US administration’s public opposition to the trip threatened to embolden China. “If the visit is cancelled, it means China’s scare tactics are working,” a senior official said. “This will have a chilling effect as others will avoid engaging with us.”
But officials also said they were concerned China could retaliate against Taiwan if Pelosi continued her trip.
As the Financial Times reported over the weekend, China has strongly warned the US against Pelosi traveling alone, and Jake Sullivan, US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, and other national security officials oppose Pelosi’s trip because they believe it could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
Biden said last week that the US military did not think it was a good idea for Pelosi to visit Taiwan at this time.
While the Chinese government has not specified what steps it may take, the Foreign Ministry said last week that Beijing would “take decisive measures to respond decisively and counter” Pelosi’s visit, adding: “Our words will be matched by actions “.
Two people familiar with the situation said the Biden administration has not discussed its considerations about Pelosi’s planned visit with the Taiwanese government, nor has it shared details about what has the U.S. military worried that Beijing might respond to the visit with open arms. aggression.
“A lot of discussions are quite speculative and hypothetical. We don’t have a lot of information from the Biden administration,” a senior official said.
This has raised suspicions in Taiwan that Washington’s mention of China’s warnings could be an excuse to avoid engagement with Taipei in the name of improving ties with China.
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“We know Biden has to have a phone call [Chinese president] Xi Jinping and maybe they are worried that nothing will get in the way of that,” said one person familiar with the Taiwanese government’s views. “We know the Biden administration would like to improve trade ties, and maybe they don’t want that to be derailed by Pelosi’s visit.”
Chen Fang-yu, an expert on US-China-Taiwan relations at Suchow University in Taipei, said Washington needs to reassure the Taiwanese public. “There’s so much public skepticism here that the U.S. can give up Taiwan, a lot of conspiracy theories, because the threat from China is so real,” he said. “Therefore, the US should make more public information about its engagement with Taiwan.”
Alexander Huang, a representative of the opposition Kuomintang in Washington, said the US government and Pelosi’s cabinet should determine whether a visit is in the common interest of the US and Taiwan, “but the whole episode is not at all constructive for either side”.
“If Pelosi comes when China reacts, we have to respond to it, even though we are not the initiator,” Huang said, adding that he was speaking in his capacity as an expert on cross-strait relations and security issues, and not on behalf of the KMT.
“If she decides not to come, it will raise suspicions about whether China now has more power to influence American decisions.”
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