It was hailed as a post-Cold War collaboration for the good of humanity: two old rivals joined forces to launch the International Space Station (ISS) more than 20 years ago.
“The International Space Station is considered the most complex engineering, scientific, collaborative human feat ever manned,” it boasts US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)..
But as relations between Russia and the West become increasingly strained over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, officials in Moscow announced on Tuesday that Russia would abandon the ISS after 2024 and instead concentrate on building its own competing space infrastructure.
Analysts say they worry that Russia’s withdrawal from one of the last remaining vestiges of cooperation with the West will slow scientific research and potentially lead to increased militarization of space.
“There have been rumblings about this for a while, but it’s a sad day,” said Mubdi Rahman, founder of Sidrat Research, a Toronto-based space technology firm. “Even before the invasion of Ukraine and all [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s various aggressions, there has been some fragmentation in the space community with nations wanting to go it alone.”
CBC News reveals what Russia’s move means for the ISS, space exploration and the politics of the great beyond.
WATCH | Russia to leave ISS due to military tensions in Ukraine:
Russia ignores its space station partners because of military tensions in Ukraine
Russia is giving its partners on the International Space Station a cold shoulder over tensions caused by the war in Ukraine. Widespread images of Russian cosmonauts holding flags in support of pro-Russian separatists have prompted rare statements from space agencies in Canada, the United States and Europe.
Who is currently participating in the ISS?
First launched in 1998, the main organizations working on the station, according to NASA, include the United States space agencies (NASA), Russia (ROSCOSMOS), Canada (CSA), Japan (JAXA) and Europe (ESA), which includes the following participating countries: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
However, Russia and the United States are considered key players, analysts said.
Canada’s contribution, for example, represents ownership of only about 2.3 percent of the station, said Adam Sirek, a professor at Western University’s Institute for Earth and Space Studies in London, Ontario.
Why is Russia leaving now?
With Russian forces shelling Ukrainian cities and Western sanctions hitting Moscow’s economy, there were rumors for a while that Russia would leave the ISS.
Yuri Borisov, who heads Russia’s state space corporation Roscosmos, made the announcement of Moscow’s planned withdrawal from the initiative on Tuesday during a meeting with Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin participates in a video call with the crew of the International Space Station at the Novo-Ogarevo Residence near Moscow in 2020. (Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/Kremlin Basin Photo/Associated Press)
Russia, Borissov said, would fulfill all of its current operational commitments before leaving.
Russia had previously signaled that it intended to leave the station after 2024, while NASA wanted it to remain operational until 2030.
However, some analysts see Russia’s announcement as more of a public relations move than anything else.
“I don’t think it’s a story,” Michael Byers, a professor at the University of British Columbia who studies space politics, said of Russia’s announcement. “Russians say this periodically,” he wrote in an email; then they continue to work on missions.
NASA did not immediately respond to CBC News’ requests for comment, nor did the Canadian Space Agency.
What is Russia currently doing on the ISS?
Russian cosmonauts, technology and transportation systems are responsible for a number of key functions for the ISS. Russia built mostly half of the station, launched in 1998, while the US built the other half.
The ISS was originally conceived so that technology could be shared between different countries; participants are interdependent.
For example, NASA’s solar panels provide much of the station’s power, while Russian technology stabilizes the ISS, keeping it where it needs to be in orbit around Earth.
“Sharing resources to conduct research in space has been a focus of the ISS program,” Sirek said.
This illustration shows the various contributions to the International Space Station from different countries. Note that Russia has four. (NASA)
In addition, Russia is responsible for transporting cosmonauts to the station for the last missions. NASA contracts out transport missions to private companies like SpaceX.
“To be quite frank, the US and the rest of the world still do not have a viable, well-tested solution to reach the ISS,” said Sidrat Research’s Rahman. “Russian spacecraft were the reliable ones to get people to the ISS.”
Are the tensions between the West and Russia affecting the operation of the station?
The geopolitical struggle has not visibly spilled onto the decks of the ISS.
Last week, Russian and European astronauts went on a seven-hour spacewalk where they installed ISS platforms, deployed nanosatellites and replaced a safety window, according to NASA.
There are currently no suggestions from Russian officials that Moscow will stop providing transportation or other support to the station before 2024.
Earlier this month, ahead of Tuesday’s announcement, NASA and Roscosmos announced an exchange agreement that would see NASA astronaut Frank Rubio fly aboard the Russian Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft in September and Russian cosmonaut Anna Kikina fly with Crew -5 SpaceX’s Dragon. Nothing was said in Tuesday’s announcement to suggest that those existing collaborations would be scrapped.
WATCH | Canadian civilian heads to ISS on historic private mission:
Canadian joins historic private mission to International Space Station
Entrepreneur and philanthropist Mark Patty is part of a four-person crew that made history Friday aboard the first civilian mission to the International Space Station. The mission isn’t just about space tourism—crew members plan to conduct several science experiments during their visit.
Looking beyond 2024, obtaining spare parts for Russian-made components of the station will certainly be a challenge in light of sanctions and general supply chain issues in building new parts from scratch, Rahman said.
What happens at the ISS?
The station is home to a number of research projects that cannot be carried out anywhere else. For example, it’s used to conduct experiments on how long-term weightlessness affects the human body, according to NASA, and it’s “the only place to test technologies that will take humanity further into space.”
CSA and Roscosmos are also coordinating several projects for the ISS, Western University’s Sirek said, including research into space radiation that would allow humans to live longer outside of Earth.
“These partnerships and collaborations, using Russian technology and parts of the Russian segment of the ISS, have increased the yield of Canadian research,” Sirek said.
MDA, the Ontario-based company behind the ISS’s Canadarm2 and a key Canadian company involved in the station, declined to comment.
Is Russia’s move a harbinger of a new arms race in space?
Space technology is already critical to Earth’s military campaigns, including the war in Ukraine, Rahman said, as nations struggle to maintain control of sensitive information and communications systems.
“That’s why nations like China and India are making sure they have a functioning and well-funded space program,” he said.
The International Space Station is photographed by Expedition 66 crew member Roscosmos cosmonaut Pyotr Dubrov from the Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft in this image released on April 20, 2022. (Pyotr Dubrov/Roscosmos)
For now, Rahman said, it’s unclear whether Russia’s recent move could herald a return to the 1980s and fears of space lasers or the “Star Wars” program to shoot down ICBMs.
But he says the move is likely to heighten concerns among military planners and dampen hopes for cooperation on joint science projects to benefit humanity.
“The militarization of space happens the moment the missile is launched,” Rahman said. “There’s a lot more going on than what we’re aware of in society.”
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