Russian forces responded with an all-out bombardment of Black Sea ports – but still say they want a deal that would allow Ukrainian grain, and perhaps Russia’s, to be transported.
It’s hard to interpret what’s behind all the killing and bombing because there’s so much we can’t see, either by accident or by design. Above and behind the shelling, sniping, rocket artillery fire, and cruise missile strikes, there is a vast, dark war. Beyond the mayhem and the carnage, the torture, hostage-taking and murder, there are signs that this could be the first great digital war of our time.
What happens in cyberspace and the effects of electronic warfare, jamming, jamming and disruption of communication and information, can determine the outcome of the war. Electronic warfare has been standard Russian military doctrine and practice for decades. Specialized units for this type of attack have been deployed in the wars in Chechnya, Georgia in 2008, in Syria and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. Cyber operations have been organized continuously, proverbially during the 2016 US election, against Ukraine and recently in Lithuania and Estonia.
Russian brute force alone has not completely prevailed in Ukraine. The Ukrainians, no doubt with a little help from their Western friends, were deft. Commanders across the country are tight-lipped about much of their cyber and electronic tactics.
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In part, this is due to clan loyalties among warring groups – Ukraine’s historical memory, as classics such as Gogol’s Taras Bulba and Bulgakov’s White Guard – does not encourage much faith in the state as an institution. It’s a Ukrainian form of omerta, the mafia code of silence. “It’s a brilliant form of operational security, operational security – absolutely waterproof,” commented a British officer.
The fate of the six-month war is now well balanced. Both sides suffered terrible losses – the Russians up to 20,000 killed and 60,000 wounded. This is more than half the size of the invasion force last February. Losses for Ukraine are of the same order, with at least 20,000 dead of its fighting forces, many wounded and more than 11 million displaced.
Despite massive artillery fire, Russian forces are making slow progress to capture all of Donbas, a goal they are unlikely to achieve for weeks – and despite Ukrainian forces being badly wounded, retreating from Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian air defenses continue to shoot down Russian planes and cruise missiles. The precision targeting of HIMARS and MLRS rocket artillery by the US, UK and other allies is pulverizing Russian ammunition and fuel depots.
The Russian command looks very much like it wants to end the fighting in short order by the end of the summer. New forces were being recruited into battle from all over Russia, with a new drive to gain parts of the non-Russian minorities, including the Kuban and Don Cossacks. In total, NATO estimates Russia now has about 250,000 personnel committed to Ukraine, and they need to be replenished by at least half again if they are to last.
This is where the dark war comes into play. Through electronic means, surveillance satellites, drone targeting systems, the movements of Russian forces and their proxies can be tracked and fixed. They have similar assets but don’t seem to give them much of an advantage, often the opposite.
Modern ground combat, based on close, deep and rear combat space, is being transformed. In the new network warfare and digital warfare concept, everything is one space, according to the new American doctrine. Ukrainians proved that they skillfully adapt to the new reality.
This week, Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Russia’s main goal is regime change in Kyiv, the erasure of an independent Ukraine. If Ukraine survives battered but free, it wins. If Russia loses Ukraine to Europe—here the dark war could prove decisive—Moscow loses, period. Which will be very bad for Putin and the Russian people – and the consequences will affect us all.
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