OLATHE, Kan. — In the final days before Kansas residents decide whether to remove protections for abortion rights from the state constitution, Kansas City’s politically competitive suburbs have become hotbeds of activism.
In neighborhoods where yard signs often advertise high school sports teams, dueling abortion-related messages now also dot lawns. A cafe known for its chocolates and cheese pie has become a haven for abortion rights advocates and a source of anger for opponents. Signs were stolen, a Catholic church was vandalized earlier this month and tensions are palpable on the eve of the first major vote on the abortion issue since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June.
“I’m really sad that this happened,” said Leslie Schmitz, 54, of Olathe, speaking of the abortion access landscape. “And crazy. Sad and crazy.”
There is perhaps no greater motivator in modern American politics than anger. And for months, Republican voters angered by the Biden administration were explosively fueled by this year’s election. Meanwhile, Democrats faced an erosion of their base and significant challenges with independent voters.
But interviews with more than 40 voters in densely populated Johnson County, Kan., this week show that since the fall of Roe, Republicans no longer have a monopoly on fury — especially in states where abortion rights are clearly on the ballot and especially in battleground suburbs.
“I feel pretty strongly about it,” said Chris Price, 46, a political independent who said he voted for Mitt Romney for president in 2012 before backing Democrats when Donald J. Trump was on the ballot. “Candidates who would support a ban on abortion, I would not support at all. Period.”
Asked if threats to abortion rights had affected how motivated she felt to get involved in this fall’s midterm elections, Natalie Roberts-Wilner, Democrat of Merriam, Kan., added: “Yes. yes yes definitely.”
On Tuesday, Kansas residents will vote on a constitutional amendment that, if passed, could give the Republican-dominated Legislature the option to impose new restrictions on abortions or ban the procedure entirely. Nearby states, including Missouri, which is separated from some rival Kansas suburbs by State Line Road, a thoroughfare dotted with abortion-related signs, have already enacted near-total bans.
Voting is open to unaffiliated Kansans as well as partisans. And whatever the outcome, activists on both sides caution against drawing sweeping national conclusions from the issue on the August ballot, given the complex cross-currents at play.
Read more about abortion issues in America
The amendment’s language itself has been criticized as confusing, and in the overwhelmingly Republican state, Democrats and unaffiliated voters are less accustomed to voting on primary election day. On the other hand, several voters said they would vote against the amendment but could support Republicans in November — a sign that some who support abortion rights still weigh other political issues more heavily in the election. And nationally, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday found that Republicans and abortion opponents are more likely to vote in November.
But there’s no doubt that the abortion debate in the state’s most populous district — located in Kansas’ Third District, one of the nation’s most competitive congressional seats — offers the first significant national test of how the issue resonates in suburban territory.
Like other highly-educated, moderate areas — from the Philadelphia suburbs to Orange County, Calif. — the Third District is home to a significant number of center-right voters who, like Mr. Price, felt comfortable with Mr. Romney in 2012. But they embraced Democrats during the 2018 midterms, including Gov. Laura Kelly and Rep. Charisse Davids, and many pushed back on Mr. Trump.
Whether those voters will remain in the Democratic fold this year after Mr. Trump has left office is an open question in American politics. Democrats are betting that outrage over sweeping abortion restrictions will help the party hang on to at least some of those moderates despite the extraordinary political headwinds they face.
Republicans insist that anger over inflation — and fear of a recession — will crowd out other concerns for a broad swath of voters. (In polls, far more Americans cite inflation or the economy as the biggest problem facing the country than abortion.)
Tuesday’s vote will offer an early snapshot of attitudes and energy around abortion, if not a definitive predictor of how those voters will behave in the fall.
“How much of a motivator is it really?” said Dan Cena, a Democratic strategist who led the 2018 House takeover on abortion rights, adding that there have been signs of improvement for Democrats in some suburban districts recently. “How does it actually, when it’s on its own, move women, move parts of the electorate? And that will really give us insight and an opportunity to get an answer to that.”
The limited public poll showed a fairly close, if unpredictable, race.
“It looks like the Yes vote still has a lead, but it’s narrowed,” said Mike Kuckelman, chairman of the Kansas Republican Party. Referring to the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision, which shifted control of abortion rights to the states, he continued: “A lot of that is because, I think, the Dobbs decision pushed the pro-choice forces out.”
The Kansas City Star reported Thursday that there has been about a 246 percent increase in early in-person votes so far compared to the 2018 midterm primaries. Several precincts in both moderate and more conservative parts of Johnson County this week were lively all day, including in a rainstorm and in the heat. And on Friday, Scott Schwab, the Republican secretary of state, predicted that about 36 percent of Kansas voters would participate in the 2022 primary, up slightly from the 2020 primary.
His office said the constitutional amendment “has increased voter interest in the election.”
“I’ve talked to a lot of people who have said, ‘I haven’t been involved before, but I’m going to vote,'” Mr. Kuckelman said.
Other Republicans said the abortion amendment and repeal of Roe had not affected their commitment to vote in other races this year — that they have long been heavily committed.
“There’s no more energy,” said John Morrill, 58, of Overland Park, who supports the amendment. “I was already very energetic.”
In the Olathe site, which drew more conservative voters Thursday, Melissa Moore said she voted for the amendment because of her deep-seated anti-abortion beliefs.
“I understand women saying, ‘I have to control my own body,’ but once you have another body in there, it’s their body,” Ms Moore said. But when asked how the intense national focus on abortion has affected her thinking about voting, she said: “I tend to always be energetic.”
Several others at an early voting location in Olathe indicated they were voting against the amendment and leaning toward Democrats this fall. But they spoke in hushed tones and declined to give full names, citing concerns about professional backlash, in an illustration of how tough the environment has become.
Closer to the Missouri border, patrons of André’s, an upscale Swiss cafe, felt freer to openly voice their opposition to the amendment. The restaurant and store sparked controversy earlier this summer when employees wore “Vote No” stickers or buttons and encouraged patrons to vote, but several lunchtime patrons made it clear they shared those views.
“We just want to make sure people have the right to make a choice,” said Silvana Botero, 45, who said she and a group of about 20 friends voted no and that she felt more enthusiastic about voting through November.
At a nearby polling place, Shelley Schneider, a 66-year-old Republican, was more politically conflicted. Ms. Schneider opposed the amendment, but plans to support some Republicans in November. Still, she was open to Mrs. Kelly, the Democratic governor, especially if the amendment passes. Approval of the amendment, she acknowledged, could open the way for potentially far-reaching action by the Legislature.
“I think Laura Kelly is kind of a hedge against anything that might come through,” she said. “She can provide some common sense there.”
Mitch Smith contributed reporting.
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