TAKE with Rick Klein
Former President Donald Trump definitely lost Arizona in November 2020.
Then he won it in August 2022 — for his chosen candidates, at least through the GOP primary. Like Trump’s political movement, this means complicated and potentially competitive things for the GOP’s efforts in the highest-profile midterm elections.
Partially hidden by the Kansas abortion referendum result was the fact that Tuesday largely led to MAGA’s upset: Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates won GOP nominations up and down the Arizona ballot. Trump’s gubernatorial pick is making the rounds in Michigan and leads in Arizona votes so far — while offering unproven claims of “fraud” and “irregularities.”
Term-limited Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers, who was seeking a seat in the state Senate, lost his primary after testifying before a House committee on Jan. 6. Also losing was Rep. Peter Meyer of Michigan, who became the sixth (of just 10) House Republicans to back Trump’s second impeachment to ensure they leave Congress after this year — four by retirement and now two by primaries lost.
Despite all that, Trump’s influence may be greatest on the Senate landscape. Arizona’s Blake Masters joins Trump’s picks in Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania as untested and controversial figures running in states critical to Republican prospects for flipping the upper house.
That’s one big reason Democrats’ prospects for holding the Senate are significantly better than the House. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast now puts Democrats as slight favorites to keep the Senate, though only a one-in-five chance to keep the House.
This week’s primaries nearly complete the slate of candidates in competitive Senate races. Republicans were able to breathe a little easier with the primary victory of the less scandalous of the two men named “Eric” — state Attorney General Eric Schmidt over former Gov. Eric Greitens — both of whom Trump supported in Missouri.
Trump’s record is better in congressional races than in gubernatorial races, and his influence is greater in vacancies than in unseating incumbents. But judging the results of the primaries won’t matter much if the GOP leaves seats on the table in November.
Republican state attorney general candidate Abraham Hamadeh and Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake wave to supporters at the end of a campaign event in Phoenix, Arizona, August 01, 2022.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
RUNDOWN with Avery Harper
After the failure of a proposed amendment to strip the Kansas state constitution of abortion rights, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that his administration says will make it easier for people crossing state lines to get abortion care.
The order allows states where abortion is legal to apply for a Medicaid waiver that would help cover the cost of treating out-of-state patients.
Biden mentioned the Kansas voters in remarks to the order from the White House on Wednesday, during his COVID-19 isolation at the first meeting of the administration’s interagency task force on reproductive health.
“The voters of Kansas sent a powerful signal that this fall the American people will vote to preserve and protect the right and refuse to let it be taken away by politicians,” Biden said.
Abortion is undoubtedly mobilizing voters: In Kansas, turnout was nearly double the number of voters who cast ballots in 2018 — but it’s unlikely that the energy will be solely on the abortion access issue.
In addition to voters happy with the outcome in Kansas — and hoping to see more states reject similar conservative efforts — there are anti-abortion voters hoping to build on the momentum of overturning Roe v. Wade to create even more abortions restrictions or bans throughout the country.
However, most Americans will not have the opportunity to vote individually for or against abortion, and most Americans are not univocal voters. As a result, the effect of the abortion debate on November’s midterms will not be so easy to see.
President Joe Biden signs executive order on access to abortion care, Washington, DC, August 3, 2022.
EyePress News/Shutterstock
THE COUNCIL with Alyssa Wiersema
The Conservative Political Action Conference returns to Dallas on Thursday with a high-profile lineup of Republican speakers — including President Trump, whose closing remarks Saturday will be his first public comments since this week’s primary results.
The three-day event has already come under fire from US lawmakers and advocacy groups for the conference, which invited far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to speak on Thursday, despite Orbán’s position as an ally of Vladimir Putin and his recent comments against so-called race-mixing.
During a speech in Romania last week, Orbán also appeared to make a Holocaust joke when he mentioned reducing demand for natural gas in Europe. Before CPAC, Orbán visited with Trump, who praised the Hungarian leader in a statement.
“Few people know so much about what’s going on in the world today,” Trump said.
The gathering of conservatives in Dallas is slated to include other prominent pro-Trump political figures who will take the stage after the Jan. 6 public hearings of a House committee investigating the Capitol riot. Although the hearings pointed to Trump as the catalyst for the attack — citing extensive testimony and evidence from his inner circle and the White House — many Republicans rejected the panel’s findings and insist the hearings will not sway voters.
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist who was found guilty of criminal contempt of Congress last month for resisting a committee subpoena, will deliver a keynote speech on Friday. During the sentencing, ABC News’ Mike Levin reported that Bannon’s attorney said his defense would appeal his case and “this is the first round.”
President Donald Trump takes the stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, July 11, 2021.
Andy Jacobsohn/AFP via Getty Images, FILE
THE NUMBER OF THE DAY powered by FiveThirtyEight
58. That’s the percentage of independents who think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to the Civiqs survey, and as FiveThirtyEight contributor Michael Tesler writes, there’s evidence of a shift in abortion attitudes toward Democrats after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Even more Republicans say abortion should be legal in more circumstances. Read more from Michael on why abortion could be a major issue for Democrats in 2022 and beyond.
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News’ Start Here Podcast. “Start Here” begins Thursday morning with ABC’s Rick Klein explaining how a victory for abortion access advocates in Kansas could be a teachable moment for Democrats. And Dawn Etchvery, president of the Nevada State Education Association, describes the teacher shortage crisis. Then ABC’s Trevor Ault reported on an Equifax miscalculation that affected millions of credit scores. http://apple.co/2HPocUL
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY
- President Joe Biden is holding a virtual roundtable with business and labor leaders at 1:45pm ET.
- White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre holds a press briefing at 2:45 PM ET.
- The Conservative Political Action Conference kicks off in Dallas.
- Tennessee votes in Republican primary for governor.
Download the ABC News app and select “The Note” as an item of interest to get the sharpest political analysis of the day.
The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the day’s top stories in politics. Please check back on Friday for the latest.
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