The seven areas where Chinese forces are currently exercising were chosen for their importance in a potential campaign to isolate the island and thwart foreign intervention, according to Major General Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing.
One zone covers the narrowest part of the Taiwan Strait. Others could be used to block a major port or attack three of Taiwan’s main military bases, he told Chinese state television this week.
The area near Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan, where there are key bases, “creates the conditions to lock the door and win the dog,” General Meng said, using a Chinese proverb that refers to blocking the enemy’s escape route.
China would say that Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is no longer valid and any aircraft entering airspace over the island would need Chinese permission or risk a military confrontation.
Such a blockade would damage Taiwan’s economy and encourage a stock market crisis.
PLA forces operating east of the island would act as a “line” to prevent other countries – most notably the US – from intervening militarily.
Although there will be resentment and it will affect international sea lanes, it is unlikely that there will be a stronger international response.
2. China invades Matsu and Kinmen islands
The small islands in Fujian province, some of which lie less than 10 kilometers from the Chinese mainland, have long been regarded by Beijing as part of its own territory.
These include the Matsu Islands, northwest of Taiwan, and Kinmen, a chain of islands just east of the coast of the city of Xiamen in China.
As a show of force and to test the West’s resolve, Beijing could attack some or all of the islands, home to about 20,000 people, at minimal cost.
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