- China has vowed to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control, and force is necessary.
- This means the Chinese military may have drawn up plans to invade the self-governing island.
- American military planners made similar plans 80 years ago, but they ruled out such an operation.
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Given Beijing’s firm stance on the status of the self-governing island of Taiwan, it is almost certain that the People’s Liberation Army has drawn up multiple invasion plans.
The Chinese Communist Party, which has never actually ruled the island, claims it is a breakaway province that will be returned to mainland control. Currently, only 13 countries (plus the Vatican) recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state.
Despite the fact that the PLA is superior to Taiwan’s armed forces, such an invasion would likely be severe and very costly. People’s Republic of China forces would have to cross the roughly 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait and land on presumably well-defended beaches.
Taiwanese troops during an exercise simulating an amphibious landing attempt by Chinese forces, May 30, 2019. Kyodo News Stills via Getty Images
It is generally expected that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will suffer heavy losses before even reaching the island – and the situation will not be much better once a beachhead is established, if at all.
The island is well-suited to the defender, a fact that Imperial Japan learned the hard way, even after receiving the island as part of a settlement with China’s Qing Dynasty after the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95).
Under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, signed on April 17, 1895, Taiwan and the P’enghu Islands were ceded to Japan in perpetuity. The Taiwanese soon revolted, declaring the Republic of Taiwan, and Japan was forced to crush this first nationalist movement.
More than a dozen bloody uprisings continued over the next two decades, but the most famous, the Ushe incident, occurred in 1930 in the predominantly aboriginal Musha region and involved aboriginal tribes who practiced ritual headhunting. This rebellion lasted about 50 days and cost thousands of lives.
Planned US Invasion: Operation Causeway
Smoke rises from Japanese ships attacked by US Navy planes in what was then Takao Harbor on Formosa in 1944 to 1945. US Navy/Intermediate Archives/Getty Images
During World War II, the US military also considered invading Formosa, as the island was known to be under Japanese control.
The plan, called Operation Causeway, was to invade the island and then use it as a launch pad for an invasion of the Japanese home islands.
The planners saw that Formosa would also provide a suitable base for the strategic bombing of Japan. Moreover, its planned capture was intended as a symbolic demonstration of American support for China’s continued involvement in the war.
In addition, Taiwan provided food supplies to the Japanese troops while securing important ports and airfields, allowing the Japanese to strike targets throughout East Asia.
There was also a feeling among some in the US military that the Formosans (Taiwanese) were too supportive of the Japanese war effort, as thousands of volunteers had also served in the Japanese army.
Gen. Douglas MacArthur steps ashore on Luzon, Jan. 19, 1945. AP photo
The greatest proponent of Operation Causeway was Admiral Ernest J. King, chief of naval operations, but opposed by Gen. Douglas MacArthur, Commander-in-Chief of the Southwest Pacific, who instead pushed for the invasion of Luzon in the Philippines.
Admiral Raymond Spruance, commanding the Fifth Fleet, agreed with MacArthur and called for the capture of Iwo Jima and Okinawa. The latter provides the same base for invading the Japanese home island while also serving as a suitable base for bombers. It was also considerably smaller than Formosa and did not require such a significant force to invade.
In fact, the US War Department had estimated that more than half a million men would be needed to invade and hold Formosa – especially since the population’s loyalty to Japan still remained in question. Since the fighting would then be fought in the island’s mountains and jungles as well as its urban centers, American casualties were expected to exceed 150,000.
It just wasn’t worth the risk and the island was surrounded. With the support of President Franklin Roosevelt, MacArthur’s plan to invade Luzon and Spruance’s proposals to invade Iwo Jima and Okinawa were put into action.
Chinese amphibious tanks land on a beach during Sino-Russian exercises in China in August 2005. China Pictures/Getty Images
If Beijing ever decides it really needs to invade, the question will be whether it will be worth the effort. The PLA can expect to face far more significant obstacles than the Americans did 80 years ago, and Beijing’s forces are unlikely to be greeted as liberators.
Such a campaign would probably destroy the nation and require millions of men to subdue the island. This would ruin its value to the continent – and instead lead to a 21st century version of creating a desert and calling it peace.
[1945SeniorEditorPeterSuchiuisaMichiganwriterwhohascontributedtomorethanfourdozenmagazinesnewspapersandwebsitesHewritesregularlyonmilitarytechnologyfirearmshistorycybersecurityandinternationalaffairsPeterisalsoacontributortoForbesYoucanfollowhimonTwitter:@PeterSuciu
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