The dog days of summer are upon us, and they may be for the box office, too. August occasionally offers some numbers in the first few weeks, but the closer we get to Labor Day, the less breakout stories we get and more how we head into festival and awards season. The first week of August has seen plenty of success over the years, and this weekend had an opening player hoping to become the 20th $100 million player to start the month. Still, it may need some extra legs – or should we say extra tracks – to join the elite.
The King of Culture: High speed train Groaning to the top
David Leitch’s Bullet Train is, of course, the aforementioned film hoping to reach $100 million; it opened to $30.1 million this weekend. It’s the 14th-best August first weekend, but the fourth-best for an original property that isn’t a sequel or connected to any of the comic book universes. It’s also the top R-rated original film coming out this weekend, which seems like good news, but it may already be fighting an uphill battle for that $100 million milestone. Its $12.6 million on Friday would normally suggest a higher start than $30 million. In the past, numbers like these (between $12.5-$12.7 million starts) have averaged up to $35.5 million starts. The two R-rated films on this list—Blade Runner 2049 and Bad Grandpa—opened over $32 million. Bullet Train’s numbers are closer to The Dukes of Hazzard’s with an opening $30.6 million; this film also had the lowest gross ($80.2 million) among the 11 films on this list. Bullet Train will be looking to sustain a second weekend over $18 million if the $90 million budget film sustains a $100 million picture. It will definitely rely on its overseas sales to make a profit.
Rotten Returns: Joe Coy’s Easter Sunday flop
That’s very little positive for Easter Sunday this weekend. Firestarter opened to $3.8M, but was also available daily on the Peacock, and A24’s Men opened to $3.29M. Easter Sunday, starring comedian Joe Coy, opened with just $5.2 million this weekend. The $17 million film won’t suffer a huge loss, but even reaching that number as a gross, even though Men’s budget isn’t justified, would make it only the third film of the summer to not see its domestic gross at least comparable budget, along with The Bob’s Burgers Movie and Paws of Fury.
Top 10 and beyond: No inches from winning, Top Gun beats Avatar
As the budget goes, the $68 million for Jordan Peele’s No has been reached, but remember that about half of that money goes to theaters, so it takes double and then some to break even. Nope will reach $100 million this week after rising just shy of Sunday with a third-week drop of 56% to $8.5 million. Last week we compared its numbers to Luc Besson’s Lucy. They’re still closely aligned, but Nope has definitely taken a step behind that now that it failed to match that film’s $9.4 million in its third weekend. Their 17-day earnings are nearly identical, so the low side of $120 million seems to be Nope’s final destination. When it grabs another $50 million overseas, it should prove to be out of the red.
A film that now seems to be on the downswing is another bad story for DC this week after the Batgirl debacle. DC League of Super-Pets fell 51% to $11.2 million, putting it on a collision course with Ice Age: Collision Course , which had a similar $10.9 million second weekend. Super-Pets’ 10-day gross is slightly ahead at $45.1 million, so we’ll put a final estimate somewhere between $65-70 million. Another animated film from the end of the summer season bites the dust with a budget of $90 million. This will be the fourth movie this summer that doesn’t make it back.
The $300 million and beyond crowd continues to put up numbers. Thor: Love and Thunder is at $316 million after a $7.4 million fifth weekend, overtaking Ragnarok as the top-grossing solo Thor movie. This also puts it in the Spider-Man 3 numbers; that film made $7.7 million in its fifth weekend and earned $318 million over the same period. If Love and Thunder falls at this rate, it could settle between $330-335 million. Minions: The Rise of Gru is now out there and this summer will be the best The Mighty Thor. With $334 million in the bank after a $7.1 million sixth weekend, it continues to surpass The Secret Life of Pets as Illumination’s highest-grossing domestic film to date. Speaking of all-time, Top Gun: Maverick has now officially surpassed Titanic with all its re-releases. $662 million and counting means Avengers: Infinity War is right around the corner ($678.8 million). Black Panther is still $26 million off Maverick’s pace overall, but even that film only had $4.7 million for its 11th weekend. $700 million is still very possible, and Paramount will probably do everything they can to make it happen.
Rounding out the rest of the top 10 we find Where the Crawdads Sing on a Crazy-like track. stupid love. with $64.6 million in the bank and ahead of that film’s fourth weekend by a margin of $5.2 million to $4.7 million. $85+ million seems well on the way. The Black Phone crossed that same threshold this weekend and is one of the big success stories of the summer. Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis will pass $140 million this time next week; it’s over $250 million worldwide and is also profitable. Finally, rounding out the top 10, we have A24’s Bodies Bodies Bodies, which opened in just six theaters this weekend with $227,000. That’s a $38,000 per-theater average, which ranks as the fourth best of the year behind Louis C.J.’s Fourth of July Kay, Everything Everywhere at Once and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The 91% approved horror comedy will go into wider release next week after the studio’s Marcel The Shell With Shoes On grossed just under $5 million after seven weeks of slow release.
On the vine: fall and Mack & Rita Headline Muted Weekend
Aside from Bodies Bodies Bodies getting a wider release next week, the new additions at the box office may be pretty muted. Two friends find themselves trapped on top of a radio tower 2,000 feet in the air in the fall. There’s Diane Keaton in a body-swapping movie where a young lady wishes she was a 70-year-old woman in Mack & Rita. Sundance presents James Ponsoldt’s story of young female friendship mixed with some horror, Summering, alongside Aubrey Plaza in the credit card fraud thriller, Emily the Outlaw. Finally, Steven Spielberg’s ET The Extra-Terrestrial will be rebroadcast on IMAX screens nationwide.
Full list of box office results: August 5-7, 2022
54% Bullet Train (2022)
- $30.1 million ($30.1 million total)
72% DC League of Super-Pets (2022)
- $11.2 million ($45.1 million total)
82% No (2022)
- $8.5 million ($98 million total)
65% Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)
- $7.6 million ($316 million total)
70% Minions: The Rise of Gru (2022)
- $7.1 million ($334.6 million total)
96% Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
- $7 million ($662.5 million total)
33% Where the Crawdads Sing (2022)
- $5.7 million ($64.6 million total)
45% Easter Sunday (2022)
- $5.3 million ($5.3 million total)
78% Elvis (2022)
- $4 million ($136.5 million total)
83% The Black Phone (2021)
- $1.5 million ($85.9 million total)
Eric Childress can be heard weekly assessing the box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness podcast.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by Scott Garfield/©Sony Pictures Entertainment
On an Apple device? Follow Rotten Tomatoes on Apple News.
Add Comment