Kenyans head to the polls on Tuesday after a campaign season marked by shifting ethnic alliances and two major issues: the cost of living crisis and high unemployment.
The race pits presidential front-runners Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister and Deputy President William Ruto against each other in a hotly contested contest. Polls put Odinga in the lead.
Odinga has run for president four other times in races that have been just as tight. This time, however, he enters with the support of an unexpected ally: his longtime political rival, President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The two reunited after a public handshake in 2018, marking the end of their long political feud. The handshake between the two leaders, who hail from Kenya’s hereditary families, surprised the nation and the couple’s supporters. Odinga and Kenyatta are from the Luo and Kikuyu ethnic communities, which have long been on opposite political sides. In Kenya’s ethnically motivated political landscape, their alliance is seen as the card that could make Odinga the lucky fifth, with Kenyatta’s support expected to attract some of the Kikuyu vote. But observers are unsure whether the alliance can overcome the decades-long ethnic divide.
“Much of the Kikuyu rebelled against the alliance,” said Gabriel Mutuma, a political analyst. “The only way we’ll know if it’s worked or not is by what it produces at the polls.”
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, left, claps as he performs a jig to a popular campaign jingle at the podium next to his former political nemesis Raila Odinga, right. Photo: Tony Karumba/AFP/Getty Images
The handshake sidelined Ruto – a former Kenyatta ally and successor hope. The president and his deputy eventually fell out for reasons that are not clear, ending the once favored relationship that the public enjoyed when the pair came to power in 2013, earning them the moniker “UhuRuto”. But by the time of their coup, Ruto had already won some favor in the Kikuyu-dominated Mount Kenya region. He extended that influence by choosing a teammate from that region. Analysts say his pick, Rigati Gachagua, a businessman and retired member of parliament, has significant influence in the region. However, their campaign was dealt a blow after he was recently ordered by the country’s High Court to forfeit 202m shillings (£1.3m) of his fortune over corruption links.
Odinga, on the other hand, has nominated Martha Karua, a former justice minister and longtime politician, as his running mate. She is the first woman to be nominated as a vice-presidential candidate on a major political ticket and, if elected, would be Kenya’s first vice-president. The Karua are also from the Mount Kenya region, but are said to have less influence there. Analysts say Karua’s choice as a running mate, however, has boosted his campaign among other voter demographics, including women, civil society and urban, educated Kenyans.
Supporters listen during a rally for Kenya’s deputy president and presidential candidate William Ruto. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Beyond reshaping ethnic alliances, the struggling economy has drawn unprecedented public attention to the economic agendas of presidential candidates.
“The political class had to step up after realizing that this time it’s not just about ethnic balkanization,” says Kenyan economist Ken Gichinga.
Food prices have skyrocketed across the country, fueled by global food supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Kenyans are also bearing the brunt of the country’s growing public debt of 8.6 trillion shillings (£59 billion) through highly taxed goods. Many households are struggling and a Gallup survey found that seven out of 10 Kenyans reported experiencing food insecurity in 2021.
“The economy is a very big pillar in this election and it can be a game changer,” says Mutuma.
Annan Okenye, who is running for a National Assembly seat in Pipeline, Embakasi, one of Nairobi’s most populous districts, says the economic situation in the country has made life unbearable. The greengrocer and street vendor, who campaigned on donations and meager savings, spent six years trying to finish university on a daily income of around 400 shillings (£3) a day. Just as he shut down his dreams of becoming the first high school senior in his extended family in 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic struck, forcing him to drop out of school and look for work. With formal employment elusive, he found himself back where he had started: eking out a living at a market stall.
“Kenyans are devastated by economic conditions that lead many of them to believe that their best lives are behind them,” says Gichinga.
A street vendor in his early years, Ruto worked his way into the ranks of the political elite and considerable wealth. During his campaigns, he positioned himself as a “con” who could understand the struggles of the ordinary Kenyan. He opposed “dynasty” candidate Raila Odinga, but as references to “dynasties” and “crooks” gained traction, some lawmakers branded it incitement, saying it stoked class tensions and fueled dangerous divisions in a country with extremely high inequality.
William Ruto speaks to supporters during a rally in Machakos, Kenya ahead of the general election. Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Ruto’s bottom-up campaign messages have caught on with small business owners such as market stall owners and motorcycle drivers, Okenye says. The model promises to empower those at the bottom of the economic pyramid by, among other things, providing a 50bn shillings (£346m) ‘Hustler Fund’ to support small businesses.
“People in the market feel like he’s an integral part of them. I hear what people say, as a politician, and he scores high from the bottom up,” says Okenye, who says he does not agree with any of the candidates.
Odinga, on the other hand, proposed a healthcare plan for all called BabaCare. He also promised that every vulnerable household would receive 6,000 shillings (£40) every month as a form of social protection.
Economists say the cash transfers could be effective, but Odinga is unclear how the billions of shillings needed to implement them will be raised. “Will it be through taxes and if so, are Kenyans ready for higher taxes? Will it be through loans? If so, aren’t Kenyans tired of debt already?” asks Gichinga.
Going into the election, voters’ expectations for change are low. A resident of Kayole Junction in Nairobi, Noah Dulo, says: “Our debt is now close to nine trillion. So the worry is that whichever leader we elect simply doesn’t have enough resources to run the country.
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