Businesses and even consumers could face power cuts this winter under the government’s crisis plans as concerns about power supply grow, it has emerged.
Under the government’s latest “reasonable worst-case scenario”, officials believe the UK could experience power cuts for several days in January if cold weather combines with gas shortages to leave the country without electricity.
Concerns are mounting over the charge for households this winter as new forecasts show annual energy bills are expected to hit £4,200 from January, prompting a warning that Britons face “serious hardship on a massive scale” without government intervention.
The deepening energy crisis has piled further pressure on Tory leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, who are divided over how to support households struggling with rising living costs.
According to projections, which government sources insist are highly unlikely to materialize, power shortages could be as high as one-sixth of peak demand even if emergency plans to fire up decommissioned coal plants are adopted, Bloomberg reported.
In this scenario, reduced electricity imports from Norway and France, combined with cold temperatures, would force the government to introduce emergency gas-saving measures for four days in January.
Under the plan, the grid operator will initially cancel trade agreements to direct gas flows into the system. Gas-fired power plant supplies will then be shut off, causing power outages for businesses and homes.
Rail services could even be affected if electricity is curtailed, as rail transport is one of the biggest industrial users of energy, sources said.
Officials are concerned that the UK could become more reliant on pipeline gas supplies from Europe at a time when gas exports are already tight and the continent is trying to restore its own supplies.
European nations have been locked in a race for winter gas since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with volumes in gas storage tanks well below historic levels.
Kremlin-controlled Gazprom has cut gas supplies to Europe since the start of the war as countries try to cut off Russian gas to cripple the country’s economy.
The war has sent gas prices soaring and raised fears of power shortages across Europe this winter.
A source at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said the government was preparing for “any and all eventualities” based on “fictional scenarios” but it was unlikely to happen due to the “highly secure and diverse gas and electricity system”. .
They did not deny that worst-case scenario modeling had been undertaken, but stressed that the most extreme situation of Norway cutting off all its gas to the UK was “extreme” and “will never happen”.
Ed Miliband, Labour’s shadow climate change secretary, said: “While the Tories fight over tax cuts, Britain is now bracing for catastrophic blackouts this winter. This is a complete disgrace to the British public who are already struggling at the hands of an absentee government that has left our economy in tatters.
“What we face is the result of 12 years of a Tory government that failed to prepare and refused to invest, leaving bills higher and our country less secure.”
Concerns about winter blackouts intensified this week after Norway threatened to curb electricity exports.
The UK receives hydroelectric power from Norway via an undersea interconnection cable that runs under the North Sea. However, water levels in southern Norway are so low this year that the country’s government may put its own consumers ahead of international customers.
On Tuesday, British Gas’s owner, Centrica, signed a £7 billion deal to boost gas supplies as European energy companies try to replace Russian fuel.
Centrica has signed an agreement with US-based Delfin Midstream to purchase LNG from the first floating export facility in the US. However, the 15-year deal doesn’t start until 2026.
Peter Matejic, chief analyst at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, a charity that aims to tackle poverty, called on the government to tackle rising energy bills. He said: “The payments promised by the Government earlier in the year offered some help, but their scale has been outpaced by events and must now be at least doubled if they are to protect people from serious hardship on a massive scale.”
Authorities in Westminster are also considering whether to introduce a campaign to urge consumers to use less energy this winter.
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