Mark Andrews didn’t get the love that other Ravens targets got last week, but our NFL betting picks see some positive regression coming and great value in his Week 2 props against the Dolphins.
Sunday sees the Miami Dolphins on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens, both teams having wins in the opening weekend. The Ravens looked impressive against a weak Jets team, while the Dolphins made Bill Belichick and the Patriots look ordinary.
For the best betting angles on this game, check out our NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Ravens on Sunday, September 18.
Dolphins vs Ravens best odds
Dolphins vs Ravens picks and predictions
Sunday will see a matchup between two of the most fascinating teams this season and two of the most interesting quarterback situations. With great weapons around him, clean health and finally the trust of the organization, it seems like it’s now or never for Tua Tagovailoa and he needs to show that he is a franchise QB. Then on the opposite side, there’s Lamar Jackson, the former MVP who made a bet on himself and is still playing on his rookie contract with contract negotiations on the ice for now.
Both teams looked impressive in Week 1 with dominant wins, but our best bet centers around the Ravens, who beat the Jets 24-9 last week and dominated on both sides of the ball. Lamar Jackson answered the critics, if any, with a terrific performance, throwing for three touchdowns and relying on his arm rather than his leg to add just 17 yards on the ground.
The primary beneficiaries of this increased reliance on his arm were Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay. Bateman turned two receptions into 59 yards and a TD, showing off his big-play ability, while DuVernay went 4-54-2. One guy who didn’t end up in the end zone was Mark Andrews.
This is not the time to cut bait on the tight end, instead let’s dig deeper into his numbers. The 27-year-old has developed into one of the league’s elite TEs, and he went nuclear last season, hauling in 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns.
With Marquise Brown gone, there are even more options for him now, despite the arrival of Isaiah Likely. He is still the most important piece in the passing game and the positive regression will come.
Last Sunday, he ran a 94% drop route, a higher number than both Bateman (74%) and Duvernay (53%). Not only that, but he also had the highest route target percentage. He turned those seven targets into five catches and 52 yards, but we can expect him to be an integral part of the Ravens’ success on Sunday. I’m backing the former Oklahoma TE to get into the end zone again in week two, available at a nice +150.
My best bet: Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+150 at bet365)
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Dolphins vs Ravens betting preview
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Distribution analysis
The line stood, with the Ravens 3.5-point favorites from the opener. It’s not the easiest matchup to bill, considering both the Jets and Patriots can lay claim to being the worst team in the AFC after last week’s performance.
The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS against the Ravens in recent years, which shows the dominance the Ravens have. However, the Dolphins beat them 22-10 last November with a strong defensive performance in which their D-line pressured Jackson by dominating the trenches with blitzes and a stacked tackle box.
Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Chase Edmunds have been solid additions to Miami’s offense this season, and against the Patriots they looked more dangerous than we’ve seen in recent years, with a variety of playmakers capable of doing damage.
Despite this improvement, I believe in Lamar Jackson and expect him to be among the MVP candidates as the season progresses. He will take this Ravens team on his back and find a way to lead them to victory.
As far as putting my money, I’ll take the proven QB over Tagovailoa, who still feels like someone we don’t fully understand. For that reason, I’m rooting for Ravens -3.5
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Over/Under analysis
While all the talk in the media, and indeed from me, has been around both the Ravens and Dolphins offenses, both seem to have shown improvements on defense from last year. Brandon Jones stood up for the Dolphins last week, getting six tackles and one sack as the Ravens looked brilliant on defense, even if it was against the Joe Flacco Jets.
Personally, I don’t have a strong slant on the total points, but public money has seen its O/U drop from 45.5 to 44.5 since the open, and recent trends would support that.
Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last five road games. The under is also a key trend for the Ravens, who have gone 6-0 in their last six games as favorites and 4-0 in their last four games following a win.
Dolphins vs Ravens game info
• Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland • Date: Sunday, September 18, 2022 • Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET • Television: CBS
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Dolphins vs Ravens betting trends you need to know
Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last five road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs Ravens.
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