There is no “credible path to 1.5C”, the UN environment agency said, and failure to cut carbon emissions means the only way to limit the worst impacts of the climate crisis is “rapid transformation of societies”.
The UN Environment report analyzes the gap between the CO2 cuts pledged by countries and the cuts needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, the internationally agreed target. Progress is “woefully inadequate,” he concludes.
Current commitments for action by 2030, if implemented in full, would mean an increase in global warming of around 2.5C and catastrophic extreme weather around the world. A rise of 1C has so far caused climate disasters in countries from Pakistan to Puerto Rico.
If countries’ long-term pledges to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 were met, global temperatures would rise by 1.8C. But the glacial pace of action means meeting even that temperature limit is not reliable, the UN report said.
Countries agreed at the COP26 climate summit a year ago to increase their pledges. But as COP27 approaches, only a few dozen have done so and the new pledges will cut emissions by just 1% in 2030. Global emissions need to fall by almost 50% by that date to meet the 1.5C target.
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), said: “This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we must stop we are filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases and stop doing it fast.
“We had the chance to make incremental changes, but that time has run out. Only a fundamental transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate catastrophe.
“It’s a lofty and some would say impossible goal to reform the global economy and almost halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but we have to try,” she said. “Every part of the degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to ecosystems and to each of us.”
Andersen said the action would also bring cleaner air, green jobs and access to electricity for millions.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “Emissions remain at dangerous and record high levels and continue to rise. We need to close the emissions gap before climate catastrophe is upon us all.”
Prof David King, the UK’s former chief science adviser, said: “The report is a dire warning to all countries – none of which are doing enough to tackle the climate emergency.”
Current pledges to cut carbon emissions are ‘horribly insufficient’ to meet 1.5C climate target
The report found that existing policies to reduce carbon emissions would lead to 2.8C of warming, while promised policies reduce this to 2.6C. Additional pledges, dependent on funding flowing from richer to poorer nations, reduce this again to 2.4C.
New reports from the UN’s International Energy Agency and climate body reached similarly stark conclusions, with the latter finding that national pledges barely reduce projected emissions in 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
The UNEP report says the necessary societal transformation can be achieved through government action, including in terms of regulation and taxation, reorienting the international financial system and changes in consumer behaviour.
It says the transition to green electricity, transport and buildings is underway but needs to move faster. All sectors had to avoid locking in new fossil fuel infrastructure, contrary to plans in many countries, including the UK, to develop new oil and gas fields. A study published this week found a “large consensus” across all published research that new oil and gas fields are “incompatible” with the 1.5C target.
The UNEP report says around a third of climate-warming emissions come from the global food system, and these are expected to double by 2050. But the sector could be transformed if governments change agricultural subsidies – which are extremely harmful to the environment – and taxes on food, reduced food waste and helped develop new low-carbon foods.
Individual citizens could also adopt greener and healthier diets, the report said.
Andersen said, “I’m not preaching one diet over another, but we have to keep in mind that if we all want steak every night for dinner, it’s not going to add up.”
Redirecting global financial flows towards green investment is vital, the report says. Most financial groups have shown limited action so far, despite their stated intentions, due to short-term interests, it said. The transformation to a low-emissions economy is expected to require investments of at least $4 trillion to $6 trillion annually, the report said, about 2 percent of global financial assets.
Despite Andersen’s doubts that the necessary emissions cuts can be made by 2030, she pointed to the plummeting costs of renewables, the introduction of electric transportation, major US climate legislation and actions by pension funds to support low-carbon investments.
“It’s my job to always be the hopeful person, but [also] to be the realistic optimist,” she said. “[This report] is the mirror we hold up to the world. Obviously, I want to be proven wrong and see the parties take ambitious steps. But so far, that’s not what we’ve seen.”
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