By Georgina Ranard and Esme Stallard
BBC News Climate and Science
Last November, global leaders met at the UN climate summit COP26 in Glasgow to agree on the next steps to tackle climate change.
But climate experts told the BBC that progress in 2022 was slow – with governments around the world distracted by the global energy and financial crises.
Last week, the UN warned that the world is heading for disaster. But there are glimmers of hope — including new U.S. legislation and a change of government in Brazil — that could reverse the destruction of the Amazon rainforest.
As leaders depart for COP27 in Egypt next week, we look at seven key players to ask who is leading the way and who is holding them back.
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US: Climate Leader Again?
The US took a giant leap forward this year when it passed sweeping new laws to tackle climate change.
Measures under the Inflation Reduction Act could reduce US greenhouse gas emissions — those gases that warm the atmosphere — by 40% by 2030.
“This is the largest investment in climate solutions in US history. It’s a huge sign of progress,” Dan Lashoff, US director at the World Resources Institute, told BBC News.
The bill aims to make green energy standard across key sectors such as electricity, transport and industry. The most obvious result for consumers is a tax credit of around $7,500 (£6,500) for those who buy an electric car.
And in response to the energy crisis, President Joe Biden released 15 million barrels of oil from reserves and approved new leases for oil and gas drilling.
Image source: Getty Images
The US has also not provided its fair share of funding to support developing countries most affected by climate change, which could harm relations at COP27.
United Kingdom: Leadership and ‘annoyance’
The UK hosted COP26, secured major global pledges and emerged as a clear international climate leader.
But the UK goes to COP27 “weaker” with “disappointing” leadership, says Alyssa Gilbert, director of policy at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reversed his earlier decision not to go to Egypt due to other priorities – which experts say has compromised the UK.
“One of the key things about the COP is political leadership from the top. The deviation from the Prime Minister is worse in a year when we are COP Presidents,” Ms Gilbert explains.
Image source: Getty Images
And the UK has not increased its ambition to tackle its role in climate change, according to a Climate Action Tracker analysis of plans submitted to the UN. (These are called nationally determined contributions – part of the landmark Paris Agreement, in which countries pledge to regularly increase their ambition to tackle climate change).
The global energy crisis has also led the UK to renege on commitments to end new oil and gas production in the North Sea and close coal-fired power stations.
These changes may not fundamentally change the UK’s energy balance, but they “send the wrong signal”, explains Robert Faulkner, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
EU: Pressured by Russia
The European Union has historically advanced in tackling climate change, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on energy supplies to Europe have undermined this.
“Leaders have extended the life of coal-fired power stations and we estimate that European emissions actually increased by around 2% in the first six months of this year,” says Prof Robert Falkner.
The Climate Action Tracker now rates the EU’s climate targets, policies and funding as ‘inadequate’ and the EU has not updated the UN with new NDC plans.
But Prof Falkner sees the return to investment in fossil fuels as a “temporary setback” and suggests the EU could take this opportunity to secure energy security by investing in renewables.
A new plan, the REPowerEU plan, aims to increase the EU’s share of renewable energy in 2030 from 40% to 45%.
India: Big ambitions thwarted by coal
India is one of the few countries to have published updated 2022 climate targets.
“It’s almost impossible to talk about India without talking about progress,” says Kamya Choudhary of the London School of Economics.
It promises to reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 – meaning it plans to reduce emissions per dollar. It also wants 50% of the energy installed to be renewable.
But India’s plan to reopen 100 coal-fired power plants (coal is the most polluting fossil fuel) is a huge obstacle to those ambitions, says Professor Navroz Dubash of the Center for Public Policy and a UN climate adviser.
Image Credit: Gautum Dey/AFPImage,
Workers prepare to load coal at the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad in the Indian state of Jharkhand
However, as in other countries, Mr Choudary suggests this is a short-term measure to be replicated with the energy crisis.
Climate Action Tracker says India’s pledges are not very ambitious – they could be achieved with limited government action.
Brazil: New President, New Hope?
Brazil holds one of the keys to fighting climate change – its massive Amazon rainforest, the lungs of the planet, absorbs huge amounts of carbon.
In a dramatic election last week, President Jair Bolsonaro was ousted by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – potentially changing the future of the Amazon overnight. “Brazil is ready to regain leadership in the fight against the climate crisis,” Lula said on Sunday.
Deforestation has increased by 48% in 2021 alone. Renata Piazon, executive director of the Instituto Arapyau, explains this with President Bolsonaro, who supports more mining in the Amazon.
Since Glasgow, Brazil’s targets have been criticized as “less ambitious” than pledges made in 2016 and for not delivering on promises.
Image copyright ReutersImage caption
A recently deforested section of the Amazon rainforest in Manaus, Amazonas state
Historically, Brazil has used hydropower to provide large amounts of green energy, but a drought in 2021 dried up the dams. In response, it has invested in oil and gas – with predictions that oil use will increase by 70% by 2030.
However, the International Energy Agency predicts that solar energy will make up for the loss of national hydropower.
Australia: Making up for lost time
Politics has also undergone a change in the face of Australia. Elected in May, new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accelerated climate plans, ending a decade of backsliding.
But Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, says it looks like significant progress just because of how far behind Australia is.
Image copyright ReutersImage caption
New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to reverse Australia’s biodiversity loss by 2030.
“So far there has been little change in policy, and certainly not in the area of fossil fuels,” he said.
And although Australia pledged at COP26 to end deforestation, in 2021 it was classified as the only developed country to be a ‘hot spot’ for tree loss – almost half of eastern Australia’s forests have been destroyed.
China: ‘Great’ polluter investing in renewables
China has a complex role in global climate action. Unlike countries in the developed world, it is not responsible for the historical emissions of greenhouse gases that scientists believe have so far caused climate change.
But it is now a “great polluter” because of its very rapid economic growth, explains Neil Hurst, senior fellow for energy and mitigation policy at the Grantham Institute. It burns half of the world’s coal and is unwilling to cut back due to energy shortages.
However, China is also the largest investor in renewable energy. A quarter of newly registered cars in China are electric. “They are pushing hard and setting demanding targets, including peaking their carbon emissions by 2030,” explains Mr Hirst.
And it has big ambitions to tackle carbon emissions by planting trees. In May, President Xi Jinping pledged to plant 70 billion trees by 2030.
Additional reporting from the Data Journalism team
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