What a difference a day makes. On Monday, Rishi Sunak appeared at the Confederation of British Industry’s annual conference in Birmingham to deliver a keynote address. At least that’s what the delegates were led to expect. What they got was a brief slap in the face in which they were led to think that innovation was the answer to all their problems. Delivered and received in a sense of suppressed boredom.
If the Prime Minister had wanted to sound like he really didn’t care – that the Conservatives were completely out of ideas about how best to manage the economy – he wouldn’t have changed the beat. The CBI listened to him, but the applause was superficial at best. Just enough to maintain a patina of civility. But nothing more. Ten minutes of everyone’s lives that they will never get back.
It was all very different on Tuesday morning when Keir Starmer arrived to deliver his speech. The Labor leader had gone to the trouble of giving the delegates something of substance. No mini-madness through a few management consulting clichés, complete with a fake Goldman Sachs smile for him. This was twice as long and much more detailed. Given with undeniable confidence and panache. Gone are the days when he barely apologized to business leaders. Now he looks them in the eye.
And the delegates seemed to approve. They even laughed at his jokes. Which was odd since Starmer rarely drops any of his banter when he speaks publicly. And he got what for the CBI was almost a small enough standing ovation. They loved him sincerely. Not just because Starmer had gone to the trouble of showing them some respect, but because they sensed he had a vaguely credible plan.
He acted like he believed he was a future prime minister. While Sunak looked like a semi-serious leader in charge of a joke at a party, Starmer sounded like the real deal. A serious man leading a serious party. It’s been a while since Labor has been able to say that. Just as long as nobody talks too much about Brexit.
Starmer opened with a flourish. It was great to be at the National Exhibition Center where some of the greats were headlining. Bob Dylan. David Bowie … and Peppa Pig. The CBI was happy about it. No one is in a mood to forget Boris Johnson’s crash and burn at last year’s conference any time soon. Then it was down to the nitty-gritty. He had a plan for Britain. It was a different Labor Party. One that was not just pro-business, but proud to be pro-business. Willingness to work in partnership with business. Happy to embrace the win.
“I don’t want to waste time talking about the government,” he said. Although of course he did. Of course, no one could have predicted the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. But the Tories could do something about onshore wind and solar panels to make us less dependent on imported energy. And it was due to the decline and neglect of the Tories that we were currently at the bottom of most OECD tables. The lowest growth of any G-7 country. So Sunakered that even the government’s industrial strategy for growth was decommissioned and shelved.
So here’s the deal. It would be difficult. Harder than he would have liked, but unable to influence the economy he would inherit. But there will be growth across the country. Not just the southeast. And it will be based on a green revolution. Anyone who wanted a well-paying job could have one. He was less clear on how this might actually happen, but bear with me. This was the future.
There was a deal breaker though. Take immigration. This had to fall. Or maybe stay the same. He didn’t want to get too hung up on the numbers. But you get the drift. The days of immigration to fill job vacancies with cheap labor are over. While there may obviously need to be some immigration to fill jobs in the short term; he was worried about the medium and long term. He couldn’t tell where the short-term ended and the medium-term and the long-term began. This was another detail we had to take on faith.
Just believe in the alchemy that any employer will hire dozens of apprentices and then pay them top dollar when they qualify. It was not at all clear how this worked for care homes, which are already struggling to hire qualified staff who they cannot afford to pay more than the National Living Wage.
But just roll with it for now. It was an immigration policy that performed well with the focus groups. Electing Labor was more important than being consistent. So Starmer once said he was all for free movement and immigration. That was then, that was now. Also, Rish! had given up on most of his leadership promises, so why shouldn’t Keir? After all, the Tories could hardly bemoan Labour’s immigration policy if it were not so different from their own.
Understandably, the media – if not the CBI delegates, who appeared to take Starmer’s word as gospel – wanted more details about Labour’s change of direction on immigration. But Starmer remained like a sphinx. Everything was going to be okay. Just believe. It was almost the same with Brexit. This too could not be mentioned in detail. Like the Tories, Labor can’t bring themselves to say there are no benefits to Brexit that anyone has yet identified. That Brexit cost the country 4% of GDP.
So there is omerta. The two largest parties can’t even talk about one of the main reasons the economy is in recession. In case the country feels betrayed. Both just hope that one day – some unspecified year in the future – people will suddenly realize that Brexit was a terrible mistake. And then the Tories and Labor can say I told you so. Except they didn’t. So take your pick. A competent starmer with one hand tied behind his back. Or a miserable Sunak with his hands tied. The CBI seem to have made their choice.
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