RCEM’s analysis, which is based on Freedom of Information disclosures, suggests the figure could reach 1.5 million this year, with a 50% increase in cases in one year.
NHS targets say emergency patients should be treated, admitted or discharged within four hours – but the current performance of 71 per cent is the lowest on record. The target has not been met since 2015.
Every month, NHS England publishes statistics showing the number of A&E patients forced to wait more than 12 hours after a decision has been made to admit them to hospital.
But RCEM points out that they are the tip of the iceberg as they do not take into account the time spent waiting before this decision is made.
The latest published figures show 43,792 people waited more than 12 hours in October, up 34% from 32,776 in September and 19,053 in May.
The figure is the highest on record since August 2010.
Increase in mortality from preventable diseases
But figures compiled by NHS Digital and revealed in FOI disclosures show that the number of patients facing a total wait of at least 12 hours after arriving at the emergency department is around three times higher.
The monthly statistics show 979,488 such cases in the first eight months of the year. This suggests an annual figure of around 1.47 million this year – even without any deterioration in performance this winter – compared to a figure of 976,264 for the whole of 2021/22.
Meanwhile, estimates suggest that the recent rise in death rates – from preventable diseases such as heart attacks and strokes – is causing at least 500 deaths a week.
The Care Quality Commission last month warned that the health and care system was “closed”.
The situation led to ambulance delays with an average wait of one hour for heart attack victims and vehicles stuck in queues outside emergency departments.
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