Public support for striking nurses has increased in the past two weeks, an Observer poll has revealed, as ministers vow to stand firm against any offer of increased pay ahead of further NHS walkouts.
With pressure mounting within the Conservative Party and among NHS chiefs Rishi Sunak to find a compromise, the latest Opinium survey shows that following the strike by tens of thousands of nurses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland on Thursday – the first such action in NHS history – nurses retain significant public support. Three-fifths (60%) of voters said they supported nurses striking for two days in December, up three points from the last poll two weeks ago. About 29% were opposed, one point less.
In another cause for concern in Downing Strait, there also appears to be public pressure for the government to resume talks with nurses. Sunak and Health Secretary Steve Barclay insisted resuming talks would undermine the independent pay review body, which recommended the government’s table pay deal.
However, half of voters (50%) think the government should negotiate pay, even if it means having to award more than recommended by the pay review body. Only 23% believe they should not negotiate with unions on pay and adhere to these recommendations.
The findings reveal the political difficulties facing Sunak as the government considers the possibility of further strikes by nurses next month. There is evidence that the public has a different view of striking nurses than other sectors that have taken strike action. For example, 45% are against rail workers striking in winter, while 39% support them.
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Privately, senior figures in Downing St acknowledge the differences in public sentiment between nurses and other striking sectors. However, there is also serious nervousness about the precedent that would be set by overturning an independent pay recommendation. Sunak continues to stand by the argument that nurses were offered a 3% pay rise last year when other public sector workers had a pay freeze – and are now being offered a 4% to 5% increase.
Sunak also tried to use the wave of winter strikes as a political tool to damage Labour, repeatedly using Prime Minister’s Questions to attack Keir Starmer as too weak to “stand up to the unions”. Yet there is now a clear division developing among his MPs over the need to make way for nurses.
Some prominent MPs are rallying around the idea that the pay review process could be reopened to take into account the high level of inflation in recent months. The idea was raised by Jerry Cope, the former head of the review body, who said a review of the original finding could be a solution to an “apparently intractable problem”. Steve Brain, a former health minister who now chairs the councils’ health committee, said allowing the pay review body to reconsider its recommendation would be a “sensible response”.
But others involved believe there is no time for such a review and say a more realistic time for the government to compromise is at a meeting at the start of the new year to discuss next year’s wage settlement. At this point, they believe ministers, the pay review body and unions can agree a retrospective deal for the past year.
There is growing nervousness among the Tory caucuses about the government’s hard line against any increase in the nursing offer. Former Tory leader Jake Berry and former cabinet minister Robert Buckland called for a compromise. There are also fears that “red wall” voters are sympathetic to the striking nurses.
Dan Poulter, a doctor and former health minister, said it was “disingenuous” for ministers to hide behind the pay body as recommendations had been ignored in the past. He said there was no time for another independent review, instead calling for a compromise in the new year. He warned that the widespread use of temporary staff and the vacancy crisis showed that nurses’ pay had simply fallen too low.
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“If we go back about 10 years, there would have been only a few hospitals that were spending about 10% of their total staffing bills on temporary and replacement staff,” he said. “Now 10% would be a very low figure for most hospital trusts, with most trusts spending 20-25% of their staff bill on temporary staff. This is not sustainable and is not an acceptable place.
“I imagine some of my colleagues will have mail bags full of messages from constituents calling for a quick resolution to this crisis. People will also be concerned about what the impact of this will be on their own care or the care of their friends and family. It’s a very real problem for a lot of people.”
Other senior Tories have warned that giving nurses more will make it extremely difficult for ministers to withhold other pay demands. “If they were going to do that, then resurrecting the pay review body is possible,” they said. “But if they did, they would have to put in a huge amount of political effort to say it’s only nurses because they have a special claim – and because strikes would undoubtedly lead to a large number of avoidable deaths.” You could do this. But that would require statements from the Prime Minister. I would not recommend it at this stage.”
On Friday, Sunak showed no sign of moving to a compromise deal, insisting the deal on the table was “appropriate and fair.”
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