While the first months of the year often mark the peak of flu season, Canada is starting 2023 already at its worst — although doctors are now bracing for more hospitalizations, in large part due to a potential spike in COVID-19.
Latest data from many provinces show steady decline in flu cases in the weeks leading up to the new year, while federal data released Friday confirmed flu activity has “declined sharply” since its peak in late November.
The weekly rate of positive flu tests fell from about 13 percent in the penultimate week of December to less than nine percent in the last week of 2022.
“Flu season isn’t over, but it’s on the wane,” said clinician-scientist Dr. Alison McGeer, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, in an interview Friday morning with CBC News.
Although it hit hard and fast, putting a large number of children in hospital last fall, Canada’s overall flu season ended up echoing the experience of southern hemisphere countries such as Australia.
“Which is: early season, sharp peak, but then it goes down pretty quickly,” McGeer said. “And a lot of diseases in children — so hard on pediatric hospitals and people who care for children — but actually pretty quiet on adults.”
During the flu season in Canada, more than 1,500 flu-related hospitalizations were reported, including 183 children who ended up in the intensive care unit.
There were also six flu-related child deaths, the latest federal figures show, although previous CBC News reports suggested the full number among the provinces may be higher. with at least 11 children dead of flu last year in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario.
Several doctors told CBC News they are now planning for a potential wave of COVID to start while the flu is still subsiding.
All signs pointed to Canada’s flu season winding down, and new federal data sums up where we stand:
➡️ Influenza activity has “declined sharply” since the peak in November
➡️ 8.6% of tests were positive last week, down from 13% the previous week
Source: pic.twitter.com/qzwnFTd35M
—@LaurenPelley
Concerns remain about COVID, RSV
Federal data showed an upswing in SARS-CoV-2 testing positive in multiple regions by the end of 2022.
Part of the concern also stems from the spread of highly transmissive subvariant of Omicron XBB.1.5which has been reported in multiple Canadian provinces and nearly 30 countries abroad.
The sub-variant began to spread amid the busy holiday socializing season and then continued as children returned to school and many adults returned to work.
Bivalent booster vaccines are expected to help protect against infection, but protection may wane for Canadians whose last dose of the COVID vaccine was a few months or more ago, McGeer warned — and anyone who missed the most recent vaccine updates could be particularly at risk.
“That combination could mean a significant increase in hospitalizations in January and February,” McGeer said, “and I think that’s what worries people the most right now.”
WATCH | Severe flu season, now surge in COVID cases:
A hospital full of sick children prepares for an influx of adults
As a severe flu season puts extreme pressure on the health care system, CBC News goes inside a busy Ontario hospital to see how staff are struggling to cope with an increase in seriously ill children while preparing for a new wave of adult flu patients.
COVID will continue to complicate the situation in hospitals while respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation also remains high, which may continue to drive more sick children to pediatric hospitals, noted Dr. Srinivas Murthy, clinical associate professor at the University of British Columbia faculty in medicine.
“As the strain has been visible in the health system over the past few months, I think our ability to respond remains a challenge,” he said.
“We’re still seeing much higher rates of RSV-related admissions than before,” echoed Dr. Nisha Thampi, medical director of infection prevention and control at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO).
“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
Add Comment