Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre trails Justin Trudeau when it comes to support from women. Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
Pierre Poilievre must do more to woo women voters to win a majority at the next election, including “pushing the anger button” less often, say observers, including a senior adviser to former Tory prime ministers.
The Conservative leader lags behind Justin Trudeau when it comes to support from women, with a recent Nanos poll for The Globe and Mail showing just 22 percent think the Tories should keep Mr. Poilievre on until the next election.
Political commentators say that to win a clear majority, Mr Poilievre needs to win the support of women, including “soccer mums”, who may not put up with his “attack dog” rhetoric.
Marjorie LeBreton, a former leader of the Conservative government in the Senate who has worked with four party leaders, Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney among them, said Mr Poilievre’s aggressive stance in the debates risked alienating women who want to see practical solutions instead of earning points.
She said Mr Poilievre was a “very hard worker” and in private, behind the scenes, did not “come off as shrill and angry”, but in public he could not resist “pushing the anger button”.
She urged the Conservative leader, who took the helm of the party in September, to adopt a “change of tone” if he is to win an electoral majority.
“I think people in general, but women in particular, are so tired of the vitriol and the anger,” she said in an interview. “They’re not looking for someone to blow the rhetoric and point out everything that’s wrong. They want solutions.”
Nick Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research, said the Conservative leader “needs to be more competitive among female voters” to beat Mr. Trudeau. The December Nanos poll for The Globe polled 1,021 people and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“The survey shows that Pierre Poilievre is doing well among male voters, but he is significantly vulnerable among women,” he said.
Mr Nanos said women were “less likely to see politics as a blood sport”.
As the country nears elections, he said, Mr. Poilievre will need to develop policies that appeal to more female voters.
He said Stephen Harper won the 2011 election with the help of the “soccer mom” vote, which he won with a package of tax credits aimed at families, even though he was not particularly favorable in the polls as a leader with women. It included “family tax relief,” which allows an eligible taxpayer to pass up to $50,000 of income to his or her spouse.
Melissa Lantzman, deputy leader of the Conservative Party, said Mr. Poilievre was effectively highlighting issues of concern to all voters, including the cost of living, inflation and public safety, and said the policy platform was “under way.”
She said in an interview that Mr. Poilievre had “a lot of women at the executive table” and had appointed Raquel Dancho as public safety critic, saying crime and safety were “the main concern of women in the suburbs.”
“There is more to come and we will have a platform that supports every single Canadian,” she said.
Conservative allies of Mr. Poilievre say that as a father with young children, he understands the pressures Canadian families face.
Kitto Magee of MainStreet Research said Mr Poilievre had a smaller share of the female vote than previous Tory leaders, although he had strong support from men, particularly younger men.
A poll he conducted in December showed the Liberals had 42 percent support among women, compared to 30 percent for the Conservatives. The poll polled 1,267 adults and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“The divide between male and female voters has not been this wide before,” he said, adding that it was “widest” among 18- to 34-year-olds by a margin of 40 points.
“He may not need a female voice [to win]but he will have to get a much larger share of male voters to compensate,” he said.
Carl Belanger, president of Traxxion Stratégies and a former NDP adviser, said previous Tory leaders who won in a landslide had the support of women voters in the Toronto area and “to a lesser extent” around Vancouver and Montreal.
“In 20 years in politics, I’ve never seen a gender gap like we have now,” he said.
Without that support, he said Mr. Poilievre would have to convince many liberal voters to stay home and even then could only win enough seats for a minority government.
“To win a majority, he needs the soccer moms to show up for him and turn these GTA seats from red to blue,” he said.
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