The NFL playoffs resume with three wild card games on Sunday to kick things off.
All three games on Sunday, like every game in this round, are rematches from the regular season. This is the first time the entire round has been filled with rematches since 2009.
Here are my thoughts on Saturday’s roster, including what I’m betting on and some fun guesses for the final results for each. Enjoy the games and good luck with whatever you decide to bet.
I just don’t see how Miami’s weak defense can slow down Buffalo’s explosive offense, especially considering Josh Allen has excelled under pressure all season. That doesn’t bode well for Miami’s glitz-heavy scheme.
Therefore, this will put pressure on Skyler Thompson (in a super hostile environment) to keep the Dolphins in the game with his arm. This probably won’t end well.
It’s bills or nothing all the way. And I haven’t even gotten to the tremendous special teams that Buffalo has.
Notable nugget: Double-digit underdogs are 3-11 against the spread (ATS) in the playoffs since 2011. Double-digit Wild Card Round underdogs are 1-7 ATS over the last 20 years.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 13
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically preload their betting slip into the FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you throw out an essentially meaningless Week 18 game against a tanking Bears team, each of the Vikings’ previous 11 wins came by one possession. Meanwhile, 13 of New York’s 17 games have been decided by one score.
Long story short: there’s a really good chance this game ends up being a Vikings win by one score, which is why I felt comfortable teasing the Giants to +9 (with the Bucs), even if it’s not the perfect Wong ‘teaser. “
When these two teams met a few weeks ago, the Vikings closed as a 4.5-point favorite. They ended up winning that game on a field goal, but the Giants finished with almost 100 more total yards and a 1.7-yard advantage per play.
Plus, after that contest, the Giants have much better health, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Don’t underestimate the importance of Adoree Jackson and Xavier McKinney returning from injury in Game 2, especially in this particular game. Justin Jefferson had 12 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting without those two in the backfield.
With a stronger secondary, the pressure the Giants can generate by blitzing could cause Kirk Cousins serious problems. He has struggled especially against the blitz this season in a new offensive scheme.
That could be even more problematic when you consider that Minnesota’s offensive line won’t be at full strength after losing right tackle Brian O’Neal to injury. This is a huge loss that not enough people are talking about. It’s also worth noting that starting center Garrett Bradbury is also dealing with an injury.
I think this line is pretty close to fair, although I’m closer to 2 when I factor in injuries and diving a little deeper into the matchup, which is why I was comfortable teasing giants, even at +3.
This should come down to the wire, as you’d expect with both teams, but I’ll go with the mini upset and take the G-Men, who will also benefit from the knowledge that they’ve already played Minnesota earlier this time around season.
Notable nugget: Daniel Jones is 13-2 (86.7%) ATS as a single-digit road underdog. However, since 2002, first-time quarterbacks against quarterbacks with playoff experience have gone just 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%).
Final Score Prediction: Giants 27, Vikings 24
The Bengals have a huge advantage at quarterback and wide receiver, which will likely prove to be the difference in this divisional matchup. However, I think that’s too many points for a franchise that has had more success at this point in the road under John Harbaugh than any other organization in the last 15 years.
I believe the Ravens defense remains one of the most underrated units in the league since they traded Roquan Smith and got several other key pieces back from injury. They also have cornerbacks on the outside who can at least match up with Cincinnati’s dynamic wide receivers. For what it’s worth, Joe Burrow struggled when both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphy were on the field.
Also, not enough is said about the injuries on the offensive line that Cincinnati has had on the right side with La’El Collins and now Alex Capa. Burrow has been under a lot of pressure in the second half of the last two games following those two injuries. Hakeem Adeniji and Max Scharping both have big responsibilities.
Baltimore should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and can rely on its elite defense and heavy special teams advantage (and coaching) to keep that within the count. The Ravens won’t be afraid of this stretch, and they just played in Cincinnati, which further reduces home field advantage in a divisional game.
The Ravens probably can’t get more than 20 with their limited offense. They haven’t scored more than 17 since losing Lamar Jackson, but I think they’ll try to follow the same formula they’ve used to win games in ugly fashion during that stretch, which should result in coverage here without any key lose, which Tyler Huntley will give you the best chance to avoid.
Run Dobbins all night, look for Andrews on third downs, take a deep shot every time in a blue moon down the sidelines, and feel comfortable relying on the defense and special teams. That’s the formula for covering the Ravens in a game I believe will be closer than most.
Notable Nugget: John Harbaugh is 5-0 straight (SU) and ATS in wild-card road games, covering an average margin of 15 points per game.
Final Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Ravens 17
If the Cowboys didn’t stumble down the stretch — especially last week in Washington — that line would probably be 3 or maybe even 3.5. Alas, we have 2.5 instead, making the Bucs a perfect teaser. I paired them with the Giants as I said above.
However, I have far more concerns about the Cowboys in this particular matchup. After the injury to cornerback Anthony Brown, their secondary has fallen off a cliff for a defense that has allowed the most yards per play of any team in the NFL over the past five weeks. Assuming the play-calling doesn’t get too vanilla on early downs, Tom Brady could crack this shaky defensive backfield — though the health of the center position is certainly worth monitoring.
If Ryan Jensen can return, it could give Tampa’s offensive line a huge boost. If he can’t and the injury to his backup is serious, that could spell big trouble for Brady, who struggles with interior pressure. And Dallas can still create tension with the best of them.
Likewise, the passing offense has suffered a similar fate with Dak Prescott struggling in his reads with too many turnovers. If you can slow down Dallas’ high-powered rushing attack, you can shut down this offense right away. Having Dak Prescott beat you as a drop passer is the path to success for opposing defenses against the Cowboys.
So can Tampa lock up Zeke and Pollard? I think so. During the season, their defense did not live up to expectations. For example, the Bucs ranked just 20th in first down defense.
However, their defensive numbers across the board were heavily impacted by injuries along the defensive line and in the secondary. With Vita Vea and Akiem Hicks in the lineup, the Bucs went 6-1 while allowing just 3.9 yards per punt and 15 points per game. Without the two, they went 2-7 while allowing 4.8 yards per punt and 25 points per game. That’s a drastic difference.
Combine the health up front with an already healthy secondary and this defense is as healthy as it has been since holding the Cowboys to three points in a Week 1 win.
I also believe that Dallas’ offense has some negative regression in the red zone, while the opposite is true for Tampa’s defense. All indications are that the Buccaneer’s stout defense is the underrated unit in this game that ends up being the difference maker.
Notable Nugget: The Cowboys lost to the Bucks 19-3 earlier this season. Teams that lost by double digits in a regular-season meeting that are listed as playoff rematch favorites have gone just 11-21 ATS (33.33%) over the last 20 years.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 20
Add Comment