Blocking the Scottish Government’s gender recognition reform bill, Rishi Sunak simultaneously made a “no more” statement on devolution and transgender rights.
Which defines him as a more conservative conservative than his public image might suggest. This refutes those who return to David Cameron’s Tory party and believe that without modernization that party will one day die.
But right now, Sunak reckons his insult to Nicola Sturgeon is more problematic for Keir Starmer and his party than it is for himself, or even perhaps for Sturgeon.
She will challenge Sunak’s veto in the courts and strengthen the case for independence. Whereas Starmer’s most important policy right now is to devolve more power across the UK, including Scotland, and his electoral success depends in part on proving to voters that devolution represents meaningful control over their own lives, including – probably – how gender is recognized in law. But if Starmer supports Scotland’s right to determine sex, which was supported by Scottish Labor leader Annas Sarwar, though not all Labor members of the Scottish Parliament, he knows the Tories will accuse him of undermining the rights of biological women. They will see an opportunity to court socially conservative ex-Labour supporters (the so-called Red Wall vote, in a slightly misleading paraphrase). So Starmer will feel the need to approach and speak carefully about this issue, although when it comes to wars of cultural identity, gender identity and national identity, such ambiguity is often where xic hints and smears multiply as weeds. I suspect that he will have to make a choice that he can express as a principled or moral position, because if he is seen to be making any pragmatic judgement, traditionalist English views on gender somehow carry more weight for their electoral ambitions than Scottish liberal ones, he it risks alienating almost everyone.
This is a relatively dangerous moment for him.
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