Cases of a new, highly transmissible subvariant of Omicron have increased in Ontario, and the province’s former chief science officer said it will become the next dominant strain of COVID-19.
Speaking to CP24 on Tuesday, Dr. Fahad Razak said the XBB.1.5 subvariant, also known as “Kraken,” is growing south of the border and it’s only a matter of time before Ontario sees a similar spike.
“If we follow the U.S. trajectory, that means this will become the dominant version of the virus circulating probably within a few weeks in Ontario and across the country,” said Razak, an internist at St. Michael’s Hospital.
According to Public Health Ontario’s latest COVID-19 genomic surveillance report released Tuesday, the XBB.1.5 subvariant is expected to account for 22.2 percent of COVID-19 cases by the end of this week.
This is a significant jump from weeks ago, when only 0.7 percent of COVID-19 cases were those of the Kraken subvariant. Between December 4 and December 31, there were 105 cases of XBB.1.5 in Ontario. Most of the infected are in the age group of 40 to 59 years.
As of last week, the Omicron BQ.1.1 sub-variant was still the dominant release.
But that’s about to change, as Razak said XBB.1.5 is emerging as the most worrisome among the other Omicron sub-variants.
The World Health Organization said in a report last week that XBB 1.5 “may contribute to an increase in the incidence of cases.”
That’s why Razak said proactive measures must be taken now to mitigate the expected Kraken surge.
“In parts of the US where this happened, they did see an increase in hospitalizations — nothing like what they saw earlier with Omicron, where we had these huge spikes — but still something significant.” As you all know, we’ve had such a strain on the health system over the last few months, children’s hospitals, adult hospitals,” he said.
“So there is a need, I think, now to recognize that we are likely to see a wave of infections in the coming weeks and talk about what we can do to reduce infection as much as possible.”
He also noted the importance of getting vaccinated to avoid getting sick.
Although not much is yet known about the efficacy of updated COVID-19 vaccines against the subvariant, Razak said it appears that XBB.1.5 tends to evade some immune defenses and can re-infect people, especially those whose immunizations are expired.
“I think we have to treat these viral waves and this latest option as something that is likely to happen again and again,” Razak said.
“It’s really about being able to adapt in the moment. Get the strategies you need, things like keeping your vaccines up to date, other protective measures during a wave like masking up indoors, crowded places, and not mixing with friends, family and co-workers when you’re sick. And so I think we need to use these strategies adaptively so that we can do the things that are most valuable to us and not let these viral waves really upset us and I’d like to see us. “
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