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BERLIN/DAVOS — International efforts to supply modern tanks to Ukraine may depend on Germany — but it is waiting for the United States to act first, which is not happening.
Ahead of a meeting of Western defense ministers this Friday at the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is being pushed to help Ukraine get Germany’s best-in-class Leopard 2 tanks in anticipation of a possible spring offensive. The reason: In addition to overseeing his own fleet of Leopard tanks — and Europe’s largest economy — Scholz must approve other countries’ donations of German-made tanks.
There are expectations that Germany may soon at least allow allies such as Poland and Finland to send their Leopards to Kyiv. And officials and diplomats in Berlin say the chancellor may even offer to help Ukraine with the training and maintenance of Leopards.
But that’s the furthest Germany is likely to go for now. Unless, of course, the US is also ready to send tanks. Scholz made the point on Wednesday, keeping a low profile on the subject when pressed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
“We are [among] those who do the most” on military aid to Ukraine, the chancellor said, cataloging almost four minutes’ worth of military equipment that Berlin has already delivered or will send soon, from air defense systems to Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
“We never do something alone, but together with others, especially the United States, which is very important in this common task of protecting Ukrainian independence and sovereignty,” he added.
It’s a line German officials have repeated in recent days: Berlin’s decision on the Leopard tanks is linked to the Americans’ desire to send their own M1 Abrams tanks. Still, as President Joe Biden’s administration prepares to announce a major new U.S. arms package for Ukraine on Friday, the aid is not expected to include U.S. tanks.
This is causing headaches for European leaders such as Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who wants to form a broad alliance of countries that would each supply several Leopards to Ukraine, adding to a large battlegroup of tanks.
So far, only Finland has publicly raised the possibility of participating in such a program. Many other countries appear to be holding back, while powerful Germany remains on the fence.
Spain, for example, which has more than 200 Leopard 2 tanks, has already said that the issue of sending some of these tanks to Ukraine “is not on the table as we speak today,” as Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albarez said Tuesday in Davos.
However, EU diplomats say countries such as Spain are unlikely to maintain such a line if Berlin and Washington change course.
In search of a leader
Pressure on Scholz intensified after Britain announced last weekend that it would send its own Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace is convening a meeting of Eastern European and Baltic defense ministers in Estonia on Thursday to further increase pressure on Berlin.
Western officials fear Ukraine has little time before Russia launches a new, broader offensive against Ukraine | Sergey Chuzavkov/AFP via Getty images
The French are also considering sending their own Leclerc tanks to Ukraine in an attempt to provide Berlin with a common tank supply framework.
“The subject is complex and has not yet been resolved in Paris. But we are considering it,” a French official told POLITICO before nodding to an upcoming meeting on Sunday. “We will see what will be decided at the joint Franco-German cabinet meeting.
Western officials fear Ukraine has little time left before Russia launches a new, broader offensive against Ukraine, likely to require late-game tank deliveries to shore up Kyiv’s defenses.
“For months now, Scholz has been warning against going it alone with arms supplies to Ukraine,” said Katja Likert, a German foreign affairs committee lawmaker from the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the country’s main opposition party. “But now he’s doing just that: His reluctance to allow European allies to supply Kyiv with Leopard 2 tanks is a dangerous solo move.”
She told POLITICO: “Germany should take the lead in a European coalition of countries supplying Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.
Strong criticism has also come from the Green Party, the junior coalition partner in Scholz’s Social Democrat-led government. In a thinly veiled push to send tanks to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Analena Berbok of the Greens said earlier this week that she hoped the Ramstein meeting on Friday would “drive solutions that will help Ukraine free more people”.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Davos that the “overriding message” of the Ramstein meeting would be to provide “more advanced support, heavier weapons and more advanced weapons.”
Pressure for Germany to do more also came from Strasbourg on Wednesday. The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution calling on Scholz to form an international coalition to send the Leopards “without further delay”. And European Council President Charles Michel told MEPs: “The moment is now. Ukraine needs more military equipment. I strongly support the supply of tanks.
A potential gesture by Scholz to help with training for the Leopards or building the support supply chain, as was raised by officials and diplomats in Berlin on Wednesday, could be of some significance given that the tanks are manufactured in Germany.
“In general, the availability of spare parts and assured logistical supply is critical to the effectiveness of the main battle tank system, including, for example, recovery tanks for damaged tanks,” said Georg Löflmann, assistant professor of military studies at Warwick University.
Gen. Raimund Andrzejczak, Poland’s chief of staff, told POLITICO on Wednesday that Ukrainians could quickly be trained to use Western tanks, urging Kyiv’s partners to avoid unnecessary delays.
“This is a crucial point of the battle right now,” he said, pointing to Russian efforts in Soledar and Bakhmut. “So it’s now or never. If we don’t send, if we talk too much, red tape, some delay – it might be too late.
Alexander Ward and Suzanne Lynch contributed reporting from Davos. Lara Seligman and Paul McLeary contributed reporting from Washington. Christina Gallardo contributed reporting from London. Gregorio Sorgi contributed reporting from Brussels.
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