The federal Conservatives have gained a seven-point lead over the Liberals in the latest weekly election tracker from Nanos Research.
According to 1,084 random interviews conducted in the week ending January 13, Pierre Poiliever’s Conservatives would win 35.6 percent of the vote if the election were held today, while the Liberals would get 28.3 percent, the NDP 20.7 percent, the Bloc 7 .4 percent per cent, the Green Party 5.8 per cent and the People’s Party 2.1 per cent.
The Conservative lead – which has been creeping steadily since December – is now beyond the margin of error, and with the NDP’s share of the ballot increasing, Liberal support has been cut across both sides. In an interview on CTV News’ Trend Line podcast, Nanos Research founder Nick Nanos called the numbers “very bleak” for liberals.
“This is the worst way for the Liberals to start their year because they’re basically back on their heels and it looks like a significant number of Canadians are looking to the Conservatives,” Nanos told host Michael Stittle on Wednesday.
“I think what the Liberals have to worry about is a one-two punch, a major push from the Conservatives on one side, the New Democrats on the other, and a vote split that will work against the Liberals.”
IS HEALTH CRISIS TESTING DEALED WITH NDP?
Nanos said heading into the 2023 parliamentary season, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government could test its supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP as the Liberals look to strike health funding deals with the provinces while balancing the outstanding health commitments regarding dentistry and pharmacare as part of the parliamentary pact.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is calling on the Liberals to make protecting the universal public system a condition of any future deal with the provinces to increase the Canada Health Transfer. However, Singh has not yet said whether he would be willing to walk away from the deal, which would see the Liberals stay in power until 2025, over the issue.
According to the latest Nanos Issue Tracker, health care is the biggest unchallenged national issue of concern to Canadians, followed by inflation, jobs and the economy and the environment. Nanos pointed out that health care has traditionally been a strong policy area for the NDP.
“The New Democrats have a strong interest in protecting public health,” he said.
“So expect Singh to put the political grip on the Liberals to protect and improve public health and access to public health. I think the initial battle lines may actually be between the New Democrats and the liberals on this issue.”
BIDEN’S VISIT PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY
He said the Liberals may also want to use the 2023 federal budget as an opportunity to demonstrate they have a strong vision for their next term and are not just coasting through this one. With U.S. President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to Canada in March, Nanos said the government would be smart to announce what it has accomplished in meetings with the Biden administration.
“It’s not enough to just say, ‘Oh, we’re friends, we like each other, we have a great relationship,'” he said. “What the Liberals should do, ideally, is put something in the window in terms of something specific to be achieved in the binational relationship.”
TRUDO STILL PREFERS THE PREMIER
Another area where Nanos said the Liberals could find a foothold is public perception of federal leaders. According to the latest numbers from the research firm’s preferred prime minister, while the Conservative Party is gaining favor among pollsters, its leader Poilievre is statistically tied with Trudeau.
Nanos tracking shows Trudeau as the preferred choice for prime minister of 30 per cent of Canadians, followed by Poilievre at 27.5 per cent, Singh at 16.2 per cent, Elizabeth May at 4.2 per cent and Maxime Bernier at two per cent. Sixteen percent of Canadians are not sure who they prefer.
For that reason, he said the Liberals may choose to concentrate on undermining Poilievre’s “brand” this year, ahead of the 2025 election.
“(Poilievre) and his brand will be the main focus of much of the political dialogue in 2023 as he tries to build his brand and the Liberals try to tear him down,” he said.
“I would expect the Liberals to probably come out in 2023 because they have to turn the tide.”
METHODOLOGY
Each week, Nanos takes the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. Data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (selected from a sample of RDD landlines and cell lines) using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, aged 18 and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents can be weighted using the latest Canadian census information. The interviews are aggregated into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is removed and a new group of 250 interviews is added.
A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada was accurate by 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
More about Nanos political and issue tracking methodology
– With files from Senior Digital Parliamentary Reporter Rachel Aiello
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