Congressman George Santos has not resigned. He hasn’t even said publicly that he won’t run for re-election in 2024. But the shadow race to replace him has already begun.
In New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which Santos continues to represent despite growing calls for him to step down, political operatives on both sides of the aisle are plotting their next moves.
Republicans are pushing to find a candidate with a spotless, bulletproof resume who can repair the GOP’s tarnished reputation on Long Island. Democrats are looking for someone who can lead their comeback — a bold move to turn the district back blue after Santos painted it red.
Time is complicated. Santos could resign any day now. And if he does, it will trigger a special election where party leaders will choose their own candidates. Santos remains adamant that he will not resign unless all 142,673 voters who voted for him urge him to do so – a deliberately impossible backdoor.
If Santos doesn’t resign and serve out his full term, it will buy him just one year before the district’s primary, when hordes of Democrats and Republicans will openly vie to replace him.
With no one knowing exactly how long Santos will last — especially amid local, state, federal and international investigations into his corruption — potential successors and their backers are left on the edge. And their names remain in the air.
On the Democratic side, it’s a mix of old and new candidates. Robert Zimmerman, the Democrat who lost to Santos in November, has been the subject of much speculation. Some see it as a natural default; it already has name and organization recognition. And he openly called on Santos to resign and face him in a rematch, insisting the congressman should “let the voters decide.”
But as things continue to change about when the battle to replace Santos will begin, Zimmerman simply told The Daily Beast on Tuesday, “My sole focus is building a strong bipartisan coalition to remove George Santos from office.”
While Zimmerman’s name dominates much of the Democratic speculation, he’s not the only potential candidate out there. Some others who originally ran in the 2022 Democratic primary appear poised to do so again.
John Cayman, the county executive who ran second to Zimmerman, has already publicly said he is interested in running and has reached out to party leaders. Melanie D’Arrigo, a progressive organizer running in the same primary race, told The Daily Beast that if there was a special election, “of course I would be happy to run or, you know, definitely consider running “.
“But the reality is that this candidate has been elected and I’ve been and will continue to be a very outspoken critic of corruption on both sides of the aisle, so I’m not so sure I’ll be anybody’s first choice,” D’Arrigo added, as noted that she has not decided whether she will run in next year’s open primary.
Others, like Joshua Lafazen, a Nassau County legislator who is running in 2022, insisted he was focused “on serving my term and running for re-election to this position.”
“These are the only choices I can think of,” he continued.
One candidate who is not running in the 2022 Democratic primary but is now a source of speculation is Rep. Daniel Rosenthal, a moderate Democrat who worked his way into state government. Rosenthal does not currently live in the district, but he represents a part of it.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Rosenthal would be interested in running if given the opportunity.
There is one looming wild card – Rep. Tom Swasey (D-NY) — who represented the district before choosing to run for governor in 2022. He built a brand as a moderate among the increasingly progressive House Democrats — though that brand didn’t launch him to success in the gubernatorial primary; he placed third.
Swasey has given no public indication that he is interested in returning to Congress — and declined to comment to The Daily Beast about whether he would be interested in running in upcoming races.
Meanwhile, the Republican side continues to be a little murkier. The Daily Beast reached out to a number of Republican names, including state Sen. Jack Martins, former Rep. Mike LiPetri and current Rep. Mike Durso, without response. Other names like Nassau County Comptroller Elaine Phillips and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman have also been thrown around, though Blakeman told City & State New York he has zero interest in the gig.
Local Republican leaders, namely the Nassau County Republican Committee, have already called on Santos to resign, as have a number of GOP members in New York’s congressional delegation.
But the Republican leadership in the House did not do the same. It is not clear what role they will play in a 2024 cycle in the Santos area. If he somehow runs again, national Republican campaign units could make the rare decision to campaign against an incumbent.
If Santos doesn’t run again, as he reportedly told local GOP leaders, the national Republican leadership is left with the choice of leaving the primary race entirely up to the voters or putting its thumb on the scales to ensure no more problem children to leave the area.
Whoever ends up vying to unseat Santos is in for a crazy cycle. The race is sure to be an abundance of attention and expense. Running against controversial members — even in races where you have no chance of unseating them — often draws national donations. But in this case, it seems more likely that Santos’ political career will not last long.
New revelations about the congressman’s past continue to emerge. This week, for example, it was reported that he allegedly stole money from a fundraiser for a dying dog. While for most politicians this would be a news cycle in itself, it is somehow only a footnote to Santos, who has lied about his education, work history, family, race, ethnicity and more.
But rest assured, his time in Congress won’t be completely wasted. While he does serve as a key voice for narrow House Republican margins, he was also appointed this week to serve on the House Science, Space and Technology Committee and the House Small Business Committee.
It’s unclear whether Santos has any real experience with science and technology, and his business background is dubious at best, including his alleged animal charity, misidentified financial work, and his time as part of a Ponzi scheme.
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