More than 45,000 people who have crossed the Channel in small boats this year would be detained indefinitely in “permanent limbo” under Rishi Sunak’s flagship migration policy, a leading refugee charity has estimated.
The Prime Minister announced proposals this month to ban anyone who comes to the UK illegally from applying for asylum and then deporting them as soon as possible. A new immigration bill is expected to be introduced within weeks.
An analysis by the Refugee Council found that, absent return agreements with other countries, 45,237 men, women and children arriving in 2022 would be detained but not deported.
“They will not be able to be removed, but they will also not be able to apply for asylum, work or access support from legal services,” the group said in a statement.
The tally comes amid reports that Attorney General Victoris Prentiss has warned Sunak that the proposed bill, one of the government’s priorities, “will never pass the courts” because the long-term detention of migrants would be immediately challenged.
Sunak said on Jan. 4 that the legislation would ensure that “if you come to this country illegally, you will be detained and quickly removed.”
Home Office sources said that anyone who had crossed the Channel but passed through another country would effectively be barred from applying for asylum and their application would automatically be deemed inadmissible.
However, according to the Refugee Council’s analysis, if ministers implement this policy without additional return agreements – and if the number of people crossing in small boats remains the same as in 2022 – then 45,237 people will remain (98, 9% of those who cross) in “permanent uncertainty”.
The figure is based on the number of people for whom the Home Office has been able to secure return agreements as part of the inadmissibility process introduced on 31 December 2020.
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2022, the Home Office issued 12,286 notices of intention where it believed someone’s claim might be inadmissible.
However, by 30 September only 83 inadmissibility decisions had been issued, which can only be taken after the Home Office has an agreement with a third country to remove the person concerned – just 0.7% of cases.
“Applying the same success rate to everyone who crossed the Channel in 2022 would mean 309 people were turned away,” the charity’s analysis said. “Even if an additional 200 people were removed as a result of the scheme being triggered in Rwanda, this would still leave 98.9% – 45,237 people – unable to be removed.”
According to the Mail on Sunday, Prentice warned No 10 that moves to allow migrants to be detained without their cases being heard for three months – when the maximum allowed for terror suspects is 28 days – would not go through the courts.
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Lawyers have previously warned that plans to strip the right to claim asylum to people who arrived in the UK in small boats would breach international laws set out in the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.
Under the proposed changes, the government says it will also be able to withdraw access to initial protections and any wider protections, such as suspended deportation, if someone is found to have made a “bad faith” claim of being a victim of modern slavery or trafficking of people.
A government spokesman said the Refugee Council report “offers speculation about new legislation that we have not yet fully announced”.
“People should claim asylum in the first safe country they reach – not put their lives at risk by paying people smugglers to undertake dangerous and illegal journeys across the Channel,” they said.
A government source said the claims in the Mail on Sunday story were “completely false”.
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